5CD Why do I call here?
 

PokerStars Game #12417312336: 5 Card Draw Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/10/03 - 15:40:26 (ET)
Table 'Rhodope III' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: dhford1936 ($33.70 in chips)
Seat 2: tagdieb ($18.05 in chips)
Seat 3: sundance 333 ($10 in chips)
Seat 4: duvi974 ($20.05 in chips)
Seat 5: Dump X-11 ($2.75 in chips)
Seat 6: LLCoolDave1 ($36.40 in chips)
Dump X-11: posts small blind $0.25
LLCoolDave1: posts big blind $0.50
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to LLCoolDave1 [Jc 2c 6d 5d 5c]
dhford1936: folds
tagdieb: calls $0.50
sundance 333: folds
duvi974: folds
Dump X-11: folds
LLCoolDave1: checks
LLCoolDave1: discards 3 cards [Jc 2c 6d]
Dealt to LLCoolDave1 [5d 5c] [Jd 5h Jh]
tagdieb: discards 3 cards
LLCoolDave1: bets $1
tagdieb: raises $1 to $2
LLCoolDave1: raises $3.50 to $5.50
tagdieb: raises $12.05 to $17.55 and is all-in
LLCoolDave1: calls $12.05
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tagdieb: shows [Kh Kc Kd Ks 4s] (four of a kind, Kings)
LLCoolDave1: mucks hand
tagdieb collected $34.55 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $36.35 | Rake $1.80
Seat 1: dhford1936 folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 2: tagdieb showed [Kh Kc Kd Ks 4s] and won ($34.55) with four of a kind, Kings
Seat 3: sundance 333 folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 4: duvi974 (button) folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Dump X-11 (small blind) folded before the Draw
Seat 6: LLCoolDave1 (big blind) mucked [Jd 5h Jh 5d 5c]

Or if you hate the raw format: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1547631

So yeah, I'm totally aware that call was total crap. What disgusts me even more is that I pretty much instacalled and would have probably folded if I had taken some time to think about the situation, figuring that there's 3 hands I could beat plus the very rare overplayed set. Villain limped 99+ and even KK and AA Predraw and didn't show any maniac tendencies.

That call really makes me question my 5CD skills, or is there anybody who wouldn't have folded there? Not even sure why I'm posting this Hand.

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

I don't understand how he would have played AAA differently.

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

More or less a cooler. When you both draw 3 and you wind up with a full house, there's not really any shame in getting stacked.

That said, it might still be correct to fold here. I'd probably call and expect to lose most of the time. Just for fun, let's do the math:

Let's say he'll play a big set (KKK,AAA) like this 20% of the time and a full house or better 100% of the time.

He's 11 times more likely to have a set than a full house here (11.43% v. 1.02%, ignoring dead cards). Assuming he's limping with 99+, that means he'll push with 2/5 of those sets (not with 999,TTT,QQQ - JJJ is impossible due to dead cards).

Of the 825 possible full houses he drew, you beat 45 (1 way to draw 222, 4 ways to draw 333, 4 ways to draw 444 - times 5 for the various pairs he started with).

All told, and discounting the trips, there are 1792 (742 trips + 825 full houses + 225 quads) hands he would push here with.

After he goes all-in, there is $22.50 in the pot, and you have to call $12.05.

EV = (742/1792)(22.50) + (45/1792)(22.50) + (780/1792)(-12.05) + (225/1792)(-12.05) = $9.32 + $0.57 - $5.24 - $1.51 = $3.14

Assuming I did all these calculations correctly, and if all the assumptions I made are correct, calling here shows a profit

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

I knew that Sets are more likely, but I didn't expect just (over)playing KKK and AAA some times makes my call +eV. So my call doesn't seem that bad anymore, despite me not putting a Set in his playing range, but just a rare uncalled for push with a set makes my call reasonable. That (and having a good run of cards to almost offset my losing session this evening in a mere 15 minutes) makes me slightly happier now. I suppose I'm just giving the PL50 Players a tad too much credit and playing a bit too nitty postdraw. I just felt so bad about the call because I knew I was beat before he even flipped his cards and I didn't even take time to think about my call. I agree it's generally not a shame to get stacked with a Full house in a Pair vs Pair situation, but I felt my fives full were a tad too bad to warrant being stacked. Thanks for the calculations.

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

Gregg, I don't know about your calculations (I'm really no expert at those) but you your basic assumption (that the opponent played a big set) can't be right. Tagdieb also discarded 3 cards.

In my opinion, when you draw 3 and make a full house and your opponent also drew 3, the correct way to play is going broke and leave the table with a bad beat story. On the other hand, in this situation there were enough raises and re-raises (min-raises) to put him on a hand more accurately. I guess after villain moved all in after your re-re-raise he could be put on a few hands: AAA, Quads or a full house (better than yours because you have a really low one).
Still, the chances to turn a 3 CD into a full house are about 1:80 as far as I can remember. It was a miracle that you hit that draw, can't expect another one to do the same in this very hand. I call this every day....(and am frustrated, hating PL, saying I'd only play FL [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gregg, I don't know about your calculations (I'm really no expert at those) but you your basic assumption (that the opponent played a big set) can't be right. Tagdieb also discarded 3 cards.

In my opinion, when you draw 3 and make a full house and your opponent also drew 3, the correct way to play is going broke and leave the table with a bad beat story. On the other hand, in this situation there were enough raises and re-raises (min-raises) to put him on a hand more accurately. I guess after villain moved all in after your re-re-raise he could be put on a few hands: AAA, Quads or a full house (better than yours because you have a really low one).
Still, the chances to turn a 3 CD into a full house are about 1:80 as far as I can remember. It was a miracle that you hit that draw, can't expect another one to do the same in this very hand. I call this every day....(and am frustrated, hating PL, saying I'd only play FL [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by this. I'm not saying villain had trips before the draw - he obviously didn't.

The fact that it would require a miracle for two players to hit a full house isn't really relevant here. The fact that hero drew a full house has no significant effect upon whether villain did, too - they're (more or less) independent events. The question is: What hands is villain going to play this way? My basic assumption is that he'll rarely play a set this way (say, 20% of the time) and always play a full house or better this way. So regardless of how unlikely it is that he drew a full house in the abstract, once he goes all-in, it becomes quite likely he does have a full house (close to 50% if I'm right about how often he'd play a set like this).

That said, your conclusion is to call and go broke and my conclusion is to . . . also call and go broke (that's what the math says, too).

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

I read your statistics and read about KKK and AAA. But I guess that was referring to post-draw then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You are right about the part "The fact that hero drew a full house has no significant effect upon whether villain did, too - they're (more or less) independent events. "

Somewhere I read that it's even more likely he draws his cards, because you also did -> You needed 5s and Js and received them, that means you didn't get any card that could have helped villain.

Sorry for misreading your post. As soon as a post is heavily dominated by numbers and statistics I usually get some info wrong [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

Villain has seen our hero d(3) and will be over the moon with making even just a big set. Instacall.

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What disgusts me even more is that I pretty much instacalled and would have probably folded if I had taken some time to think about the situation, figuring that there's 3 hands I could beat plus the very rare overplayed set. Villain limped 99+ and even KK and AA Predraw and didn't show any maniac tendencies.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT.

Re: 5CD Why do I call here?
 

Do do happens. Once (thankfully I was on the better side this time) I checked and drew 4 from the blind and hit aces full. Check raised the max (PL game) and got him all-in as I was obviously bluffin.

If you don't get stacked from time to time you're playing too tight.