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-   -   Getting to the 220's NLTRN (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=540193)

NSM 11-07-2007 01:17 AM

Getting to the 220\'s NLTRN
 
Man, it took me WAY too long to find this forum.

Lots of great stuff in here, TNixon's post related to HUSNG variance and bankroll really got my attention. Even though I agree with almost all of Cwar's points about risk of ruin that's not really a concern of mine. I made an initial $200 deposit on FTP several months ago with the goal of improving my game, and steadily moving up in buy-ins. I've exceeded my expectations as my bankroll is now at nearly $4K. I've had 2 particularly nasty downswings you can see on my sharkscope graph (I am FTP player "hadtogetiton"). Besides tilty play and some ugly doomswitching during these streaks, one aspect of my play during these periods was my relative indifference to the stakes I was playing. In each spot, I'd been cruising pretty well, had plenty of bankroll cushion and I don't think I approached each match with my A game. I also think I played too many matches w/ TNixon (: I felt like I was on some sort of +EV cruise control and could just let the money roll in. I think I actually had /too many/ buyins in my bankroll. After each stretch I really made an effort to plug leaks in my game, game select better, and stick to 1 match at a time. This had extremely positive results as each of my more or less vertical downswings were replaced with more or less vertical lines back up on my graph. But after reading TNixon's post I realize I probably cost myself quite a bit of value in my latest upswing. I was so rattled by watching my bankroll shrink from $4100 to $2900 the last downswing that I more or less made myself stay at the $50 matches until I recouped my "losses". I was running/playing/game selecting really well and this limiting mindset doesn't really make sense since I wasn't at risk of ruin, and I hadn’t “lost” anything.

SO, I think it makes sense to paint myself into a bit of a bankroll corner, and in doing so reach a little higher. I have some November goals I need to complete, but assuming I reach those I think I will make a rather large withdrawal, leaving myself with maybe something like 15 buyins at the $100 level. I don't think my game is ready for shots at the $200-220s but if I can show a positive winrate at exclusively 100 over a couple hundred games I want to get it on.

I’d also like to see a thread started (if it doesn’t really exist) on the keys to moving up the levels in HUSNG’s from those who have been successful in doing so. Some really generic tips I would have for guys trying to beat the $50 and $100 matches that have worked for me are as follows:

1) GAME SELECT w/ sharkscope. I think this is by far the most important “skill.” When you get in a room w/ a -20-30% ROI Fish that should more or less be free money (your win rate should really be around 80% against these guys, variance or not).

2) Overplay huge hands in position if someone value bets into you, /especially/ on boards w/ an Ace on it or if you have the second nuts on a paired board. IE, if I’m the button and I have the nut straight and my opponent pot bets or more on the river into me, I don’t care what the stack sizes are I am overbetting all in. I can’t tell you how many times he’s had Aces up (and just as often a “big” Ace that he can’t fold). He is not getting away from it, good player or not. Just as often, on a paired board if I have high flush or a nut straight and my opponent pot bets the river going all in is the right play and it’s very rarely a full house you’re up against. Ending these matches in spots like this is huge, especially if you had relatively even stacks to start the hand.

3) Reraise extremely light when you get raised pot preflop if his raises are consistent and predictable, then donk pot any flop that doesn’t have an A, K, J, or T on it. Predictable opponents button raise is often A anything, K anything, JT, etc. Reraise pre, then donk potting a Q, 7, 4 leads to juicy pots and usually gets hands like 66, AJ, etc to go away.

4) If your opponent is limping a lot from the button, pick an early spot to reraise OOP preflop w/ a trash hand like 92 or T3, then show the bluff if he folds pre or to your CB. You’re due to pick up a hand like high pair or AK later in the match, a fish will have NO respect for your preflop raise and CB if you crush the flop. You are almost always getting raised, and usually it’s him being cute or stationing any piece of the flop (this is preferable as he’ll play for stacks).

5) Bet 150% of the pot in position on the flop to a check early in a match. This has been the quickest way for me to learn about an unknown opponents style. If he calls (happens more often then reraises) it tells me a lot about what he checks on the flop, and how tricky/trappy he is. He’s obviously getting the worst of it as you’ll actually have a hand every once in awhile and he’s spewed too much or if he checks again you can 150% pot double barrel and get some really good value.

6) Use donk tactics. Donk tactics drive you crazy, and you should drive your opponents crazy too. Min raise every once in awhile, donk bet in stupid spots, bet 20 into a 450 chip pot on the river, this stuff is infuriating, especially when you win at showdown. It’s much easier to valuebet and overbet with your big hands when you’ve been making retarded bets and have no respect early in the match. Just don’t use donk tactics in big pots (:

7) Don’t call shoves too light just b/c you think you’ve got your opponent on the ropes. If blinds are 15/30 and he shoves 405 and you’ve got A6 or 33 I don’t think that’s a good call. Him getting 800+ in chips makes him very much alive. He’s going to keep shoving in these spots, you’d much rather call w/ AK or 88 and those will come.

8) Don’t chat, except to compliment your opponent or be oblivious to his insults. I like to say “thanks!” anytime someone tells me how horrible I am. I don’t know why, but this is +EV.

9) See who’s multitabling and kill them when they are. Open up their other match(s), see when they’re in tricky pots, trailing their opponents, trash talking, etc. Take advantage of these times to steal chips and CB.

10) If good players sign up for matches w/ you, ask them why they did, and why they aren’t game selecting better. I learned this from TNixon. It’s –EV for us to play each other, most guys will stop playing w/ you if you ask nicely.

Again, this is just stuff that worked for me. My game needs a lot of work but I think I’ve been making steady improvement. I’m really glad I found this forum and am looking forward to feedback.

ukdentisto32 11-07-2007 03:02 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]

5) Bet 150% of the pot in position on the flop to a check early in a match. This has been the quickest way for me to learn about an unknown opponents style. If he calls (happens more often then reraises) it tells me a lot about what he checks on the flop, and how tricky/trappy he is. He’s obviously getting the worst of it as you’ll actually have a hand every once in awhile and he’s spewed too much or if he checks again you can 150% pot double barrel and get some really good value.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol

ChicagoRy 11-07-2007 03:04 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

5) Bet 150% of the pot in position on the flop to a check early in a match. This has been the quickest way for me to learn about an unknown opponents style. If he calls (happens more often then reraises) it tells me a lot about what he checks on the flop, and how tricky/trappy he is. He’s obviously getting the worst of it as you’ll actually have a hand every once in awhile and he’s spewed too much or if he checks again you can 150% pot double barrel and get some really good value.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

So that's what they're [censored] thinking.

HokieGreg 11-07-2007 04:57 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
this explains so much

HokieGreg 11-07-2007 05:02 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
NSM,

On a more serious note, I find it interesting that in all of your methods to beating the 50 and 100 games you don't list the most important option of "playing solid poker."

-Hokie

NSM 11-07-2007 12:28 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
Hokie, I'm not sure what you mean? I would assume that as a baseline. I've read your blog, but I haven't read your book - does it begin and end with "play solid poker?"

I'm not a fulltime player or regular poster (obv), my post was meant to get feedback from those who've had success moving up as well as outline some tactics that were useful for /me/. If what I suggested seems unorthodox or -EV (maybe I've just been a luckbox), I'd be really interested in specifics as to why.

BTW, has anyone ever been able to calculate how much money "LOL" posts have made 2+2ers?

Sheesh

HokieGreg 11-07-2007 12:31 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
sorry i thought i was getting leveled

TNixon 11-07-2007 02:31 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]
10) If good players sign up for matches w/ you, ask them why they did, and why they aren’t game selecting better. I learned this from TNixon. It’s –EV for us to play each other, most guys will stop playing w/ you if you ask nicely.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I don't actually do this with many people, but when somebody is stalking me across multiple levels to the tune of 18 games in a fairly short period of time, curiousity gets the best of me.

According to sharkscope heads-to-head stats, we ended up splitting the games right down the middle. -5% ROI each.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, was it you that tried to "help" me out by giving away a tell you thought you had on me about raise timing?

Sorry, but it still makes me chuckle a little when somebody thinks they have a timing tell on an opponent who's playing 2-3 tables *and* who likes to chat while multitabling.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, good luck moving to higher levels. If recent experience at the $100 is anything to go by (I've won like 4 out of the last 20 or something disgusting like that, getting clobbered hardcore every time I try to move up), I'll be stuck in the $50s again for a while.

HokieGreg 11-07-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
timing tells are so overrated lol

i'm usually just scratching my nuts

NSM 11-07-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol. I don't actually do this with many people, but when somebody is stalking me across multiple levels to the tune of 18 games in a fairly short period of time, curiousity gets the best of me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I wouldn't call it stalking. I sometimes custom edit my HU Table options to only show the $50 and $100's. And you play a ton of those and were the first available quite often. At least I accepted it wasn't +EV [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, was it you that tried to "help" me out by giving away a tell you thought you had on me about raise timing?

Sorry, but it still makes me chuckle a little when somebody thinks they have a timing tell on an opponent who's playing 2-3 tables *and* who likes to chat while multitabling.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, that was me (:

I think you're that your delayed raises maybe weren't as strong as they might have seemed due to multitabling, but I think there is merit in my suggestion that your insta-raises from position were usually hands that wouldn't withstand a re-raise. That was more or less what I was pointing out, that you might get re-raised quite a bit preflop from observant opponents.

ChicagoRy 11-07-2007 02:50 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
Ok, explain #5 please.

I don't see a ton of 1.5x pot, but I see people do this stuff early with pot sized bets and I have no problem check calling them on 3 streets.

It's always amazed me on FTP how many people will just straight up pot if you check, no matter how strong you were repped earlier in the hand. It's like you can play rounders poker and make money. "check check tarp" etc.

NSM 11-07-2007 03:00 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
Chi, this may or may not be a +EV play out of context, but for me it is something that helps me assign a style to my opponent early in a match with no other information. I know that I will check/call opponents all 3 streets as well OOP if i flopped middle or bottom pair (or have an unimproved but not crushed PP). However, I think pot sized bets from the button on the flop make this easy to do. If I make it 90 into a limped pot of 60, I'm making a check/call strategy that much more expensive for my opponent and also maybe inducing a check raise earlier in the hand that tells me a lot about what they flopped (ie, now I'll stop betting w/ my top pair weak kicker or middle pair).

If I flopped top pair, I'm getting a lot of value from their check call on all 3 streets w/ middle pair.

If I flopped air and they call I could be done or I could doublebarrel and get more from them than they intended to give by calling w/ bottom pair or some gutshot draw on the flop. At least the threat of an expensive turn and river are present and my CB's start to get more respect from bottom pair, etc.

TNixon 11-07-2007 03:17 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]
but I think there is merit in my suggestion that your insta-raises from position were usually hands that wouldn't withstand a re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Think about the logic here for a moment:

Since I *never* vary the size of my raise based on the strength of my hand (I raise the same with AA as I do with 95s), for weaker hands to be an insta-raise while stronger hands were sometimes delayed would have to mean that I was either intentionally delaying sometimes to make my hand look weaker, or that I was having to think for a moment about raising with the stronger ones.

And I can absolutely *guarantee* that neither of those things is happening. All the insta-raise means is that I didn't have another table distracting me at that moment. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Realistically, though, against somebody who doesn't call OOP too much, a pretty big percentage of my position raises are with hands that can't really stand a pot-sized reraise, especially as the blinds get bigger. (and sometimes I'm too stupid to back off and narrow my raising range when people start coming over the top too often)

So, if you were reraising more often to my insta-raises, and folding more often to the delayed ones, then you were generating false reinforcement to a "tell" you thought you had, in that I probably wasn't folding more often because my hands were weaker on average, but because you were reraising more often. So you looked at series of events with basically a random distribution (the amount of time it took me to raise), saw a pattern (which is absolutely not a bad thing to do, you *should* be looking for patterns wherever you can find them), and then likely created a situation where any further evidence was basically *guaranteed* to reinforce the pattern.

Don't get me wrong, if somebody has something on me, I *love* to hear about it, and I never discard well-intended advice completely out of hand, and there is some possibility that I do have some sort of subconscious delay with stronger hands. I tried to watch for it, but short of recording a video of every game you play and watching after-the-fact, the observer effect makes it practically impossible to watch for something like that.

But, I do think it's highly likely that in this particular case, you gave weight to a timing tell that almost certainly didn't (and logically, almost *couldn't*) exist.

And that can be very dangerous.

Just trying to give a little back. Whether I think it's valid or not, you did try to let me in on something you thought you had picked up on, and I do appreciate that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

NSM 11-07-2007 03:22 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
TNixon, those are good points. Honestly, the fact was I was having a lot of trouble in my matches with you so I started looking for anything I thought I could possibly exploit. There's a high likelihood I found a placebo, but at least I liked the way it made me feel [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

ukdentisto32 11-07-2007 07:57 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]

BTW, has anyone ever been able to calculate how much money "LOL" posts have made 2+2ers?
Sheesh

[/ QUOTE ]

i think "lol" posts have profited for people quite well, because instead of telling you that this strategy is completely wrong, i just put "lol" and let you keep doing it

HokieGreg 11-07-2007 08:11 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

BTW, has anyone ever been able to calculate how much money "LOL" posts have made 2+2ers?
Sheesh

[/ QUOTE ]

i think "lol" posts have profited for people quite well, because instead of telling you that this strategy is completely wrong, i just put "lol" and let you keep doing it

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

NSM 11-07-2007 09:10 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
At least this isn't too far away

HokieGreg 11-07-2007 10:20 PM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
[ QUOTE ]
At least this isn't too far away

[/ QUOTE ]

tl;dr imho

prodonkey 11-08-2007 01:39 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
"7) Don’t call shoves too light just b/c you think you’ve got your opponent on the ropes. If blinds are 15/30 and he shoves 405 and you’ve got A6 or 33 I don’t think that’s a good call. Him getting 800+ in chips makes him very much alive. He’s going to keep shoving in these spots, you’d much rather call w/ AK or 88 and those will come."

This is the one I have the most problems with.. I'll get them to 3-400 early and start trying to bully and get myself pot stuck with a lot of crap usually.

TNixon 11-08-2007 01:48 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
Dunno if it's really a good idea, but I tighten up quite a bit when they get low, limping lots of hands I would have raised.

Wouldn't surprise me if, like many of the things I do, that's exactly backwards from what I should be doing, since most people seem more likely to fold bad cards when they're low. :/

It just tilts me too much to have somebody come back from 200-300 chips for the win, and playing regulars, I have a lot more time to be patient than somebody playing turbos would.

prodonkey 11-08-2007 01:59 AM

Re: Getting to the 220\'s
 
I think maybe min raising more in this situation would be good.. some people call every min raise, but if you have something reasonable but when 50 chips becomes 20% of their stack it's much harder for them to call with trash, and it doesn't get you as pot stuck if you are just hoping they fold.


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