Two Plus Two Newer Archives - Overbetting: When to use it?

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Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

I overbet mainly on the river. Often it is when I make a FH on the river and there is a flush or straight possibility on the board.

Sometimes I will play a made hand like a flush draw. If the draw misses, I then make an overbet on the river. Which reeks of missed draw, trying to steal pot.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

berge,

the natural bluff overbet would be the third barrel on the river. we'll often see "call down to reasonable bet sizes" advice here, and it likely mirrors a lot of common nl thinking with moderate made hands. if we call pf, donk the flop, and donk the turn, then on certain boards and vs certain villains a big river overbet will be far too much for guy to showdown less than top two.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

I also tend to overbet the flop when playing vs short stacks.

Initially its for value, but once i get a read on how capable they are of folding it can be in bluff spots as well.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

I like this post berge.
So here is a hand I played last night. I guess it wasn't quite an overbet b/c he didn't have me covered but I would have done exactly the same thing and it illustrates the same ideas.

I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $3.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds

River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $9, Hero raises to $49.85, UTG folds

Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

Another reason to overbet is to negate a disadvantage in position or information by getting all-in or at least committed. That is, if we act first or if our hand is better defined than the villain's, we might prefer to get all the money in rather than play the next street.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $20, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $162 and is All-In, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

[ QUOTE ]

I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $3.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds

River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $9, Hero raises to $49.85, UTG folds

Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this is a terrible play as a bluff. You have the best hand here like 80% of the time. Why would you think he has AJ/AQ? Limp-call, check flop, check-call half pot on turn? He's either blocking with a King, or has the flush which he doesn't fold. I think it's extremely unlikely you bluffed him off a better hand than yours.

Oh also, your line is completely unbelievable. You rarely check this flop with twopair+ or a flush draw. This is a better value bet than it is bluff.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

[ QUOTE ]
A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $20, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $162 and is All-In, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.

that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $3.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds

River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $9, Hero raises to $49.85, UTG folds

Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this is a terrible play as a bluff. You have the best hand here like 80% of the time. Why would you think he has AJ/AQ? Limp-call, check flop, check-call half pot on turn? He's either blocking with a King, or has the flush which he doesn't fold. I think it's extremely unlikely you bluffed him off a better hand than yours.

Oh also, your line is completely unbelievable. You rarely check this flop with twopair+ or a flush draw. This is a better value bet than it is bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make valid points but I don't think they change the effect of the hand very much. Maybe I misspoke when I said I'm "turning my hand into a bluff." I agree he has a KQ or some K here relatively often. I don't make less money than if I called though, so the raise isn't worse than calling.

Against this particular villain though I was confident AJ made up a very large portion of his range, and I also knew he wasn't calling a huge raise on the river.
As for "[either having King or flush]" I guess we just disagree but I think table dynamics/image made AJ and AQ to a lesser degree quite likely and flush quite unlikely.

I have been looking at hands like this lately b/c I will usually call b/c I feel the flush calls and I am ahead often. However, I have decided with a strong read a shove to fold out AQ/AJ is greater EV. Obviously reads are of paramount importance in a spot like this.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $20, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $162 and is All-In, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.

that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, you're joking right with your first statement?

Firstly, it's not $180 to win $50- our odds are significantly worse! It's $160 to win just $25.

If we are generous and assume he has a seven 5% of the time (tight players don't see a flop with A7 UTG, and 67 is also unlikely and he would probably have raised more on the turn) and calls without a seven 25% of the time (for a split) then our Expected Value is (70% * $25) - (5% * $160) = approx +$10 (and that's being generous!)