Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

It is easily addressed: trade Dunn.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

To the Yankees for Ohlendorf [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

A Look at the 2008 Twins Payroll

Salary information provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts;

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...-twins_17.html

This is an estimation of what the Twins payroll will look like in 2008, and perhaps beyond. I'll estimate who is going to play where the best I can.

Position, Player, Salary, Service Time
C-Joe Mauer, $6.25MM, 4.0
1b-Justin Morneau, ~$7MM, 3.2
2b, Alexi Casilla, ~$400k, < 1
3b-none
ss-Jason Bartlett, ~$500k, 2.1
lf-up in the air, $500k-$2.5MM
cf-none
rf-Michael Cuddyer, ~$5MM, 4.2
dh-Jason Kubel, ~$1.2MM, 3.0

Bench
UT-Nick Punto, $2.4MM, 5.1
C-Mike Redmond, $0.95MM, 9.1
OF-Jason Tyner, ~$800k, 3.1

Offensive notes; There will be two more bench player, most likely getting paid about $700k combined. Craig Monroe will either take a huge paycut to sign or get non tendered. There is no way the Twins offer arb and get stuck paying $5+MM.

That's about $25.2MM on position players, still short a CF and 3b, and kind of crappy at LF/DH. They will owe Mauer and Morneau $20MM+ in 2009, and Cuddyer ain't gettin' any cheaper as he rolls through his arb years.

Pitching;
SP-Johan Santana, $13.25MM, 7.1
SP-Boof Bonser, $400k, 1.1
SP-Scott Baker, $400k, 1.1
SP-Matt Garza, $400k, < 1
SP-Fransisco Liriano, $500k, 2.0
SP-Kevin Slowey, $400k, <1

RP-Joe Nathan, $6MM, 6.1
RP-Pat Neshek, $400k, 1.1
RP-Matt Guerrier, $900k, 3.1
RP-Juan Rincon, $2.8MM, 5.1
RP-Dennys Reyes, $1MM, 9.0
RP-Jesse Crain, $1.05MM, 3.1

Pitching notes; Santana, Nathan, and Rincon are in their last years before free agency. Nobody is locked in for more than ~$1MM for 2009.

That's about $27.5MM for a pat staff.

The Twins payroll was $71MM last year,
and I've read that it will be around $78MM in 2008. They've got $52.7 in commitments for 2008 leaving them ~$25MM to find a CF, 3b, and LF/DH while looking for an improvement over Kubel at LF/DH.

This team is not bad enough to blow up, but they've got some serious holes. As I look at it, trading Santana is not the answer. They've got to stay the course and sign second tier free agents (Lofton, Lamb) to fill their holes and make a run. I can see trading Nathan to fill one hole, and Rincon as more of a salary dump. You give up Santana, you give up your edge.

After taking a closer look at this team, I think the trade scenarios are even more muddled. The one team that could fill the Twins holes at 3B and CF are the Dodgers with LaRoche and Kemp, but that would be a violent overpay from the Dodgers perspective, and there certianly wouldn't be any other prospects going over. Most likely any deal for Santana is going to be step 1 of a multi step process, but again, I just don't see it getting done.

Final thoughts; This team should plug its holes with cheap options and see what lady variance says about 2008. If they make it, great. If not, deal whatever stopgaps they sign, Santana, and whoever's left from Nathan and Rincon at the deadline. They get less in return, but will have a much better idea of where they stand. Right now, this team is in no-mans land, with regard to win potential.

Given the fact that Morneau and Mauer are not too far from costing $30MM/yr, I doubt it's in the Twins best interest to sign Santana to a 6/120 extension. I can't see him accepting less than that, so his value to the Twins is ~$27MM (~$12MM for 2008 performance and ~$15MM for draft pick compensatioin) for 2008. While they can get way more in total value in a trade, it's unlikely they can replace his $25MM of actual value for 2008.

I do recant my statement that they won't take Crisp back in a deal. He would probably have to be paired with Youkilis and a prospect (Lester/Bowden/Masterson/high ceiling A ball type...etc).

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

Summary of long post above;

The Twins should not trade Johan Santana and instead should do what they've done the past few years. Sign a couple of cheap free agents to plug their holes and hope to get lucky.

The one move I would make for sure is to trade Juan Rincon, for as little as a 12 pack of Heinekin. Moving Nathan for MLB ready CF or 3B could be OK as well.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

they should actually trade santana and blow it up

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

I think you are underrating Kubel. I'd have him penciled in as the starter in LF for next season. He is average to above average as a fielder (in left) and an above average hitter. His 2007 line was very similar to the average AL left fielder:
AL Average: .275/.335/.426
Kubel: .273/.335/.450

What makes me even more hopeful about his future is that his walk rate consistently improved all year, he hits more line drives then anyone on the team and he had a great second half. In fact, over the 2nd half, he was the best hitter on the team, hitting .303/.379/.511. That isn't a big enough sample so that you could expect him to keep it up next year, but it is enough to hope. Combined with his career minor league line of .320/.388/.499 it seems a little more likely that his 2nd half performance could look more like his future then this 1st half.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

don't think anyone wants a corner OF with a .335 OBP. don't cherry pick the "AL Average LF" thing. i'm too lazy to see what the overall corner OF average was bu it should be higher than that line.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

[ QUOTE ]
don't think anyone wants a corner OF with a .335 OBP. don't cherry pick the "AL Average LF" thing. i'm too lazy to see what the overall corner OF average was bu it should be higher than that line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, NL is higher. I was looking at BP and they list by position and league so that was the most relevant number I could copy without doing any math. NL line is:
.278 .358 .478

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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Yes, I give the Reds credit for identifying their biggest weakness and then signing the best available option to strengthen that weakness. Not only was this a "good" signing by the Reds, it might go down as the best of the offseason!

The Reds don't need as much pitching as you think. Harang and Arroyo are two solid, reliable guys to front the rotation. Belisle's ERA was crappy, but his periphs suggest a close to league average starter. They've got three MLB ready young guns in Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney, and arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors, Johnny Cueto. One of those three will be a star starting in 2008, so they really only need one of the others to be solid. It might take some time to figure out who's going to fill what role, but the Reds don't need to sign a starter. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that the Reds should now focus their attention on a high risk/reward closer like Gagne or Foulke.

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They just spent $11M a year for four years on a 32 year old who will pitch 5% of their innings. If you think a team should put half their payroll into pitching, the Reds just spent 1/3 of their pitching budget on 1/20th of their pitching output. And you think they should spend some more on another 70 inning guy?

Why not instead move some of those young guns to the bullpen?

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

DC, they have starting pitching. They really don't need more of it. Therefore their pitching budget is either in locking up that starting pitching long-term or in getting relievers...