NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

first hand, comments on all streets appreciated but mostly river

PokerStars Game #11454922775: Tournament #58124964, $11.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2007/08/12 - 19:44:24 (ET)
Table '58124964 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Denaldo (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: babybupkr (1500 in chips)
Denaldo: posts small blind 10
babybupkr: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to babybupkr [7d 7h]
Denaldo: raises 40 to 60
babybupkr: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [6c Qs 7s]
babybupkr: checks
Denaldo: checks
*** TURN *** [6c Qs 7s] [3c]
babybupkr: bets 90
Denaldo: calls 90
*** RIVER *** [6c Qs 7s 3c] [Jc]
babybupkr: bets 220
Denaldo: raises 1130 to 1350 and is all-in

thanks,
bbbushu

Re: NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

while i think a very small amount of the time you might run into 54s most of the time this is prob two pair or even just queen high (especially if it's QK or Q10 trying to fold out a better kicker) at low limits though i think this might even be a bluff. i played a 6.25 turbo recently where my opponent pushed on the river w/ ace high after being raised preflop and bet into after his checks on the flop and the turn.

Re: NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

I'd say a flush. Some people might disagree, but I would fold here. The only thing that makes it a marginal decision IMO is that it's the first hand, but I still think you're beat. Usually donks will show more aggression before the river if they're betting light. It could be 2pair, but I think it's far more likely that he flushed, maybe straighted.

Re: NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say a flush. Some people might disagree, but I would fold here. The only thing that makes it a marginal decision IMO is that it's the first hand, but I still think you're beat. Usually donks will show more aggression before the river if they're betting light. It could be 2pair, but I think it's far more likely that he flushed, maybe straighted.

[/ QUOTE ]

now thats some real bad advice i say he is on....

kq aq or 2 pair most likely

Re: NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

You guys have no reason to be putting villain on KQ/AQ here lol. Nothing about his line screams top pair/top kicker, but I guess since he is going all in thats what we should put him on??? While he may have shown up with KQ/AQ, they are certainly not the most likely hands.

Without any reads it is hard to try to put villain on an exact hand, but he would most likely be doing this with 2 pair/set/flush/straight. You can throw a strangely played AA/KK/AQ/KQ into his range as well, but I stand by the fact that they are not the most likely hands here.

Considering its an 11 dollar match, I would need a ridiculous read to fold here. I imagine you are good against his range anyways.

Re: NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

I instacall this. I wouldnt be surprised if he shows J3 sometimes. Of course, he has the flush or the straight sometimes, but most of the time its just a bluff or 2pair or slt.

Re: NLTRN $11 - Flopped set, villain\'s huge river overbet
 

bet the flop here.with no reads i bet the flop. take the aggression,vill. will call super light, beacuase at this level no one belives that you floped a flush. the turn is a little scary, but i think you would find more aggression than this with a stronger hand at this level. the river is just a stupid play by your opp. IMO. if he has the flush, he is loosing so much value here, there are very few hands your going to be calling with, and even with a hand like q-j or the str8 your just wasting value here, nit many winning players are gonna call off all there chips in the first hand very light. i insta call here. calling is going to win enough times here to make it an +ev play.