2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Total 140-108-7, around 56.5% last 2 years.

Any home fave that opens at -1 or more, and ends at -0.5-4.5 [<5 pts] fave we bet, out of conference only, excluding a very few mega-rivalry games like Cinci v Xavier, UK v LVille.

Anything else is not in this system. Make sure your 'home' team is really playing at home and not 2 hours away.

Tomorrow looks like 2 games to start us off:
LMU -2
Charlotte -2.5. Posting these early to kick things off and I doubt they will move 3+ either way.

You can wait until an hour before tipoff or 5 mins before to lock in spread if it's -4/-4.5 etc. That's up to you, with so many games going off during a given day now and then I normally just post them in late afternoon - but it's mechanical so anyone can post them if they know the system. [-5pts is not in the system. Even is not in the system.]

System ends with Conf play each year.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

less systems more AC stories gogogo

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

cfla -3.5 loss vs nevada
niowa -4 win vs umass
loyala -4.5 win vs penn
ohio -4 win vs nmsu
ucsb -4.5 win vs nwsu
creigh -3 win vs depaul
tulane -2.5 win vs auburn

6-1 results in subset games played so far (based only on closing lines)

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

What's the reasoning behind this one? HCA under-adjusted for in close games?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

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the refs get more involved as well....maybe as a by-product

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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less systems more AC stories gogogo

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Most won't make it into the public knowledge.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Noob question: How can you tell what a line opens at? Like, if I catch a line 2 hours after it opens, how do I know if it's moved?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Scoresandodds and covers have the opening lines listed for the games. I would be careful with scoresandodds, however, since I've noticed that the opening number occasionally changes to the number that their books open the line at. They are affiliated with a very late opening group of books.

Dankhank:
I think that three of those games should be taken out of counting. UCSB game was played at Stanford, Loyola opened at 5, and Central Florida was widely available at 2 or 2.5 until a few minutes before tipoff.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

I show Columbia opening at -3.5 at home. Does this count?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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I show Columbia opening at -3.5 at home. Does this count?

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Never mind. It's not AT Columbia.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

LMU is down to -1. *sigh*

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Central Florida was widely available at 2 or 2.5 until a few minutes before tipoff

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IIRC, the line for this game started at PK so it doesn't count under the system anyway.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

i'm on Loyola and NC Charlotte

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Loyola doesn't count anymore, right? It's down to a pick.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Central Florida was widely available at 2 or 2.5 until a few minutes before tipoff

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IIRC, the line for this game started at PK so it doesn't count under the system anyway.

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Games started at PK don't count.

First line of post:
'Any home fave that opens at -1 or more'
Games Open at -5 or -15 do count, it's where they are when you *bet* [5 mins prior, 60 mins, etc]. If line drops from -6 to -1 at home, I want in at 5 pts better than LV opened it.

If Loyola is PK, do not bet it.

Daily Open lines can be found on SBR and elsewhere.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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less systems more AC stories gogogo

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Virgin players always win.

Actual story: After losing a small bit fri nite at crapz, I guaranteed that anyone who played with me would win at least $500 at the $25 min table.

Thremp can give results.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

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the refs get more involved as well....maybe as a by-product

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Travel, never having played in the gym before - is it a bandbox, dead floors, bad shooting gym, etc, may not be able to get game tape by early Nov,...
UVa plays at NC every year, so seniors have 3-4 games experience and know some of the quirks of gym, other players/coaches, etc.
Clemson rarely plays OOC at, say, Gonzaga. Okla at StJohn's, Wisky at Miami, off-court distractions may also play a role.

I think the refs have a noticeable impact in a tight, 2-pt game with <1 min left and you have Big 10 refs not wanting to hurt Mich St at home v SoIll, LDO.

As mentioned elsewhere, LINE SHOPPING IS KEY, don't take -3 when -2.5 [or -2] is widely available!

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Dankhank:
I think that three of those games should be taken out of counting. UCSB game was played at Stanford, Loyola opened at 5, and Central Florida was widely available at 2 or 2.5 until a few minutes before tipoff.

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CFla opened at PK and UCSB doesn't count, so system has started 5-0 already, is that correct?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

yeah, waiting for loyola to move off of a PK to -1 is smart...

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

You can bet whatever you want, for a mechanical system there are pre-established rules that govern which games qualify and which do not.
Maybe you can start a 'home faves that became home dogs by tipoff' system and track the results? I'd be interested in seeing it.

edit: If line moves from -2 to +3 due to injury, that's not a game I want, one reason not in the CBB System...LDO

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
less systems more AC stories gogogo

[/ QUOTE ]

Virgin players always win.

Actual story: After losing a small bit fri nite at crapz, I guaranteed that anyone who played with me would win at least $500 at the $25 min table.

Thremp can give results.

[/ QUOTE ]

After I got done shooting I was around -600. Naj was down as well. His buddy hit a couple points, and then dice make it to the other end where someone clearly thought dice was serious bidness and hung onto them for 35 minutes. I ran up 1116 Naj +1685.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
less systems more AC stories gogogo

[/ QUOTE ]

Virgin players always win.

Actual story: After losing a small bit fri nite at crapz, I guaranteed that anyone who played with me would win at least $500 at the $25 min table.

Thremp can give results.

[/ QUOTE ]

After I got done shooting I was around -600. Naj was down as well. His buddy hit a couple points, and then dice make it to the other end where someone clearly thought dice was serious bidness and hung onto them for 35 minutes. I ran up 1116 Naj +1685.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played a lot of craps because roulette is the greatest game in the history of mankind. I have played enough to know however that the more jewlery the shooter has the better I end up. Also, I have never not made a profit when I am the shooter.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

I like craps since I can get the edge under .4 with optimal play. But then you can donk other clearly +EV stuff since the guy at the other end is expert dice setter.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
less systems more AC stories gogogo

[/ QUOTE ]

Virgin players always win.

Actual story: After losing a small bit fri nite at crapz, I guaranteed that anyone who played with me would win at least $500 at the $25 min table.

Thremp can give results.

[/ QUOTE ]

After I got done shooting I was around -600. Naj was down as well. His buddy hit a couple points, and then dice make it to the other end where someone clearly thought dice was serious bidness and hung onto them for 35 minutes. I ran up 1116 Naj +1685.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played a lot of craps because roulette is the greatest game in the history of mankind. I have played enough to know however that the more jewlery the shooter has the better I end up. Also, I have never not made a profit when I am the shooter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also I should note that the jewlery rule only applies to guys. Never let women roll.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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because roulette is the greatest game in the history of mankind.

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where did you get your education

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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[ QUOTE ]

because roulette is the greatest game in the history of mankind.

[/ QUOTE ]

where did you get your education

[/ QUOTE ]

It matters?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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I like craps since I can get the edge under 0.14% with optimal play. But then you can donk other clearly +EV stuff since the guy at the other end is expert dice setter in his blazer and yellow dress shirt.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I like craps since I can get a player edge over 0.50% with optimal play especially if kyleb is shooting.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP

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fixed all y'all posts.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Dankhank:
I think that three of those games should be taken out of counting. UCSB game was played at Stanford, Loyola opened at 5, and Central Florida was widely available at 2 or 2.5 until a few minutes before tipoff.

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CFla opened at PK and UCSB doesn't count, so system has started 5-0 already, is that correct?

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As LMU is +2 now, clearly not a system pick. Sorry about posting so early last nite, didn't want to forget after AC trip. Generally I suggest waiting until 5-60mins before tipoff.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

check on ECar for tomorrow's game

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Tomorrow looks like 2 games to start us off:
LMU no play
Charlotte -2.5.

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winner by 6. 6-0 start?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Bump. Any games on the list today Naj?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Looks like Richmond at East Carolina -3, opened at -2.5, right now.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Looks like East Carolina is the only one. -2.5 still available on Diamond, maybe some other places also.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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check on ECar for tomorrow's game

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ECU -2.5 looks like only play tonite. Can the Pirates keep the undefeated streak alive?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Weber State -4.5, no?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Weber State -4.5, no?

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Neutral Court.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

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Weber State -4.5, no?

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Neutral Court.

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Always check yahoo and or bodog/espn for court locations.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

my books have e. car at -3, still a play at -3?