bet the river with AA?
 

villain is a pretty good TAG. I've been playing with him at 3 tables for the last hour. For the most part his turn c/r is at least a K. But I feel almost positive he would bet the river with a flush or trips unless he is trying to sexy. The river is good if it counterfeits bad two pair, but I figure he is c/f most busted hands.

maybe this hand is super standard check behind, I just wanted to see if you guys agree.

Absolute Poker $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">BB raises</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks???

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

miles openfolds.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

villain was not miles

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
miles openfolds.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

But you nailed it in the OP. He's c/f'ing the hands that got counterfeited or sexying. Check behind and throw a stress star after the hand.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

I would check behind also. You're targeting J8 pretty much, and I'd hate to be trifectaed.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
villain was not miles

[/ QUOTE ]

He was saying, that this is what miles would do as hero.

But yeah, check. He's probably full (or full of [censored] and folding)

EDIT: And if he's good he might not pay of with J8.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

easy check imo.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

I never 3-bet in this spot on the flop. I think the play is on the turn and I would probably raise any turn (probably not a K.) I would check behind on the river as played.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I never 3-bet in this spot on the flop. I think the play is on the turn and I would probably raise any turn (probably not a K.) I would check behind on the river as played.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would have gotten owned [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

I would make a move with my hand throwing it up as a wtf and check behind

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

yeah he had the one hand that made since to value bet, J8. I figured it was a standard check behind just wanted to make sure.

thanks for the help folks.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

people can easily c/f J8 here anyway.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

even before i read that he had J8 i thought that's the only hand that makes sense. i would say he has J8 70%, some semibluffing hand that he's c/f'ing 25% and a hand that has you beat 5% of the time. i also think he may call with J8 at least 30% of the time, since he can decide you might have overplayed some pair+flush draw combo (Ad 8 comes to mind) and make a wtf c/c. or he may c/c just because, as apparently many players (even good ones) do. therefore i think it makes sense to bet.

i realize this is contrary to all the previous posts so i guess i must be wrong somehow. please flame me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

checkraising a boat or flush on that river is not a bad idea. pizzle's range is basically K9+/AA/maybe 88 when he calls the turn. the kings usually bet when checked to but never raise a lead bet. AA sometimes bets too but would also never raise a bet. so the chance he's getting tricky + the chance he makes the easiest c/f ever with J8 leads me to check behind.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

i completely agree that c/r'ing a boat or flush is not a bad idea. but i think a 3-tabling "pretty good tag" is much more likely to just bet it on autopilot. i see the turn c/r river c/r line very very rarely, what about you? it's also possible that you can confidently fold if he does c/r so you'll lose only 1BB when behind.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah he had the one hand that made since to value bet, J8. I figured it was a standard check behind just wanted to make sure.

thanks for the help folks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Looks like I would have won a bigger pot that you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i completely agree that c/r'ing a boat or flush is not a bad idea. but i think a 3-tabling "pretty good tag" is much more likely to just bet it on autopilot. i see the turn c/r river c/r line very very rarely, what about you? it's also possible that you can confidently fold if he does c/r so you'll lose only 1BB when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
i see it enough on cards like this that it matters. mainly a good tag is c/fing J8 here often so as long as he's c/ring even a tiny bit you might as well just save the bet.

Re: bet the river with AA?
 

I almost always bet when people ck the river no matter what they did before, but I wouldnt here

2 or 8 river I think I bet call, what do you guys think?

fwiw good tags dont ck call J8 here after this action vs tags cuz tags arent value betting or bluffing TT (if they are even the type of stupid tag to 3bet the flop with those) and there are no straight draws to have 3bet the flop with and the flush hit so you have no hands to bluff so he cant ck call to induce

so no absolution you wouldnt have won a bigger pot, the bet is -EV easily even if you can always bet fold correctly, u arent called by worse hands nearly enough AND im guessing youd often be tempted to bet call (do you claim to be bet folding here without thought? you think villain is tricky enough to cr 3 streets with a real hand but not cr the turn on a semi bluff/ bluff but never follow up with a cr bluff on the river?)