To Crockpot:
 

You seem to be the best in the world at knowing these kinds of things...What will the series price for the Rockies VS Indians in the World series? And Rockies vs. Redsox. Jumped on sportsbook.coms 75-1 to win ws and havent hedged yet. Trying to figure out my best course of action. Thanks alot!

Re: To Crockpot:
 

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You seem to be the best in the world at knowing these kinds of things...

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i'm not. if you can find the guy who is, have him call me, as i'm sure we could get rich together.

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Trying to figure out my best course of action.

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it involves building a time machine and shorting the rockies at 38 on WSEX either of the last two nights.

sorry if that sounded snippy. your best bet is probably to bet the AL teams now, while the rockies' win streak is fresh in everyone's mind, but the WSEX price shift indicates that someone out there is paying attention and adjusting the market. for what it's worth, i think 34 is still a favorable shorting price.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

I am the one who moved the WSEX sell off of 38 early this morning. It doesn't take much; the market is not at all liquid right now.

Unfortunately, I think many other sites tend to base their odds on what the WSEX market is "showing" to be the "correct" market price. Maybe they don't realize that WSEX only lets you sell ~20 shares before they shift the price a full $2.

I think we'll see more liquidity as the World Series approaches (especially after the ALCS is over). What I worry about is that the Red Sox win, or the Indians win a short series (with Sabathia/Carmona rested and ready to go). Hopefully, the Rockies current mystique will allow us all to get a good price.

I am also the one who took out all the -160 offered on macthbook. Now I see that the best price offered is -182. Again, the problem is that a lot of people are looking to hedge, and the market is totally illiquid at this point. No one is looking to get down huge on the Rockies this early.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

another problem is that exchanges are the only place offering a two-sided line right now.

edit: unless you think five days of rest isn't enough, there is no way sabathia will be any more tired than usual in the world series. well, i guess he could be used in relief in ALCS game 7, but it's unlikely.

the only way the WS rotations can really be affected is if the red sox start beckett tonight and in game 7.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

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another problem is that exchanges are the only place offering a two-sided line right now.

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Yeah, once the AL participant is determined, it will be much easier to bet against the Rockies at every sportsbook out there.

For now though, I don't think all of us hedgers will be able to bet much. There just isn't much action on the Rockies yet.

The next problem is getting the money off of Sportsbook if the Rockies do win. They allow one free withdrawal per month, for just $2500. The next $2500 check would have a $40 fee.

I've already lost $14K betting against the Rockies to win the pennant on WSEX. This is throwing all of my balances out of whack.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

btw, i have a very heavy position on the AL champ right now, so if anyone here wants to hedge, i'll buy your rockies bets off you. but i'm waiting until the AL champ is determined either way.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

[ QUOTE ]
btw, i have a very heavy position on the AL champ right now, so if anyone here wants to hedge, i'll buy your rockies bets off you. but i'm waiting until the AL champ is determined either way.

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What kind of odds were you thinking of offering?

Re: To Crockpot:
 

i don't think this is happening. i believe boston is a much bigger favorite than the bookies think right now (check the playoff odds blog if you don't believe me) so you're better off just taking the market price on boston to win the series.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

Yeah, I had already looked at your blog and thought that might be a problem. The Red Sox winning cost me some money - the best price I found is -220. During last week it was possible to get the AL at -160 to -180.

Good luck.

Re: To Crockpot:
 

I know the "hot team" theory's usually a fallacy, but I was wondering if you adjusted at all for the Rockies recent results or if you're just counting them the same as they were throughout the season? I think that even if the streak's overadjusted for, at least part of it has to be the young players maturing and the Rockies playing better baseball than they were earlier in the season. The price in your blog kind of strikes me as about where you'd set a line for a typical 90-win NL team if there was no improvement whatsoever.