NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Villain is: 9/8/1,3 (70)

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $95.25
SB: $59.27
Hero (BB): $50.57
UTG: $34.34
MP: $49.25
CO: $97.48

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, UTG calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

Flop: ($9.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.25</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $7.25

Turn: ($23.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15

River: ($53.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $26</font>, Hero calls $25.32 and is All-In

What do you think about my line?

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Just bet the turn. Don't think villain floats alot here, most often he has Kx, sometimes a set.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Passive nit? B/f the turn unless you think he peels this flop with a bunch of underpairs.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

I would of bet the turn here. unless you plan to c/r here checking shows weakness and makes him think you missed the flop and just fired a C-bet. now he assumes what ever he has is the best hand and takes the lead.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

fold he´s got a set here most of the time

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would of bet the turn here. unless you plan to c/r here checking shows weakness and makes him think you missed the flop and just fired a C-bet. now he assumes what ever he has is the best hand and takes the lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a c/r would be fine if I thought the check would induce a bet from a lot of worse hands, but I dont think thats the case. I think he only bet strong hands.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Villain (9/8) limp calls. I think his range is 22-77 and maybe something like JTs or A2s. I dont think a Kx is in his range, so I had a bad feeling that he had a set. Thats why I tried to "potcontrol" the hand. My plan was to induce possible bluffs instead of beeing called of only WA's. My question is if this was a bad idea.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

he has 22

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

FOLD the river you are never ahead when this villain bets his stack...Best case is a split pot vs another AK...I do not mind the turn check vs this villain..Kx(other then AK) makes up a very small if any part of his range..

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Pre flop and flop are obviously fine, turn is where it gets interesting. Been so nitty I think your preflop range is fair, mine would be 22-88, AK and maybe AQ (light weight), from that I would think the turn is a bet/fold.

Checking the turn to induce a bluff is something that I am not particularly skilled with, but given the pre flop range I would rather bet the turn to know exactly where I am at and would give up to a raise thinking set. (too weak?)

Looking forward to hearing other peoples thoughts on the turn check/call.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

The turn should be a standard 3/4 pot bet?

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thats why I tried to "potcontrol" the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so you didn't commit when you hit your TPTK when the pot was like $10? Then fold the turn please. If you decide to commit, bet turn, shove river.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

ahh guys you can't bet/fold the turn. You'll be pot stuck. Pay attention to stack sizes.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

[ QUOTE ]
ahh guys you can't bet/fold the turn. You'll be pot stuck. Pay attention to stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stack sizes are 100 bbs. You can b/f when you are dead.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Youre getting 3:1 roughly I think if you bet and get raised but if you get raised youre not good 1/4 times against this guy. Thats why I think you can b/f here.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

26 to win 80, 3x25=75+3=78. So your getting a little over 3:1 on your call. Just bothers me that he would be basically never just calling the turn if you bet.

tbh its such a weird spot on the turn versus him that I don't mind a check/fold unless I've seen him get way out of line before.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

FWIW looking at it again, c/f isnt terrible either although it looks weak at first glance. His line pf doesnt look like a king, it looks like a pocket pair. While many people will float that board with random pocket pairs, I dont believe someone with those stats will, maybe TT but not less than that really. Even if for some reason he does float though, he also doesnt seem the type to turn those hands into a bluff. I think b/f and c/c are both pretty close but in a vacuum I would probably b/f.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

my guess is he's got either 22, 55, 66, or something really
daffy like K5s. If he's got 34s, I'm freaking out and leaving
the table after this hand.

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Ive done a bit math:

We have 5 choises (A to E), and here are my assumptions about them:

If i check, he bluffs (k), or valuebets set (s), or checks worse hands and wont put any morey in (1-k-s)
Route A If i checkraise (push), he folds the bluffs (k) and call with the sets (s)
Route B If i check-call and check river, he will valuebet (push) his set (s) or check his turnbluff (k)
Route C If i check-call and bet (push) the river, he will fold worse hands (k) and call with better hands (s)
Route D If i bet 17 , he will raise with his set (n) and he calls (and fold river) with worse hands (h) and fold the rest (1-h-n)
Route E We check/fold. EV=0


Here are an assumption how i think a nitty and tight player would play in this situation:

He calls at the flop with:
80%: set
10%: worse hands he will fold if i bet, but bet 17 if i check
10%: worse hands he will call if i bet

If we bet turn, we bet 17:

EV A: C/R.............-25.81
EV B: C/C_C/F...... -7.15
EV C: C/C_B........ -25.81
EV D: B.............. 8.15


This means: Betting the turn is most profitable given those assumptions.

What do you think about the assumptions?

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Here are the formula if someone is interested:

Variables:

k Floatbluff%
n Set%
P Pot before my bet
B My turnbet
L His turnbet
S Eff.stack before any action at turn
h Worse hands

EV-A = (1-k-n)*(P) + k*(L+P) - n*S
EV-B = (1-k-n)*(P) + k*(L+P) - n*L
EV-C = (1-k-n)*(P) + k*(L+P) - n*S
EV-D = (1-n-h)*P + h*(P+B) - n*B

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

I think I have to test the formula...

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

This one is right:

EV A: C/R.........-25.81
EV B: C/C_C/F......-7.15
EV C: C/C_B........-25.81
EV D: B............-7.15


Given the assumptions, a check/fold is best

Re: NL50: Passive NIT coldcalls and fires turn and river
 

Against these guys it's almost always a set. They just sit and set mine all day.