Re: wait for turn, or charge the draw now?
 

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thanks for the imput, I felt I played it optimally (which the varying frequence plan).

villian had A3 diamonds. sweetjazz I like your way of thinking, but I have a sinking suspeicion that some good LagTags think differently.

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No good player will think diffently from sweetjazz's approach becuz a simple pokerstove analysis shows that we dont have the equity on the turn to consider raise/folding.

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I was expressing my dislike of raise/fold the turn here... I can't tell if you agree or disagree, kind of confused.

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Just so youre not confused, I wasnt disagreeing with you. I was just pointing out that based on a simple pokerstove analysis, raise/folding the turn appears to be incorrect even if we have perfect knowledge that the villain wll never play back at us with a lesser hand. Of course this conclusion depends alot on the assumption of the villain's flop check/raising range and his call down range and turn folding range.

Actually I just realized that my analysis somewhat contradicts SweetJazz's remark: "I don't really see a problem here with raise/folding *this* turn against a predictable opponent."

Based on what my pokerstove observations, it appears that raise/folding is incorrect even against a predictable opponent.

Can someone else do their own Pstove analysis and see if their results are different than mine or see if there is a hole in my logic. I am still not that confident in applying pokerstove to actual play.

Re: wait for turn, or charge the draw now?
 

Another reason I really hate raise/fold on the turn in this situation is because a player like me in the villain's shoes will sometimes not 3-bet the turn and c/r or donk the river instead.

Re: wait for turn, or charge the draw now?
 

agree with sweetjazz, sometime i think online player are too stubborn. i had the best hand, i had to 3 bet, charge him the max, etc!

for example, you flop second pair weak kick in a multi-way pot(k, q, rag) in the blinds, you bet and 2-3 limpers call, turn a 2 flush board with some low card. you bet, all fold to the last position player raise you ! you know 80% that he is semi bluffing, and if he is bluffing, he will fire the last bullet 100% if you show weakness ? so what you play here ? 3 bet and charge his draw ? no ! i called and act weak, so let him hang him self if he is bluffing. so i am winning or losing 3 bet no matter what (he is leading, bluffing, outdrew me). if i 3bet, i will lost 4 if i m behind or outdrew, and only win 3 iff i was winning.

however, if the player only will fire last bullet like 20% of the time or never, then i think you had to 3 bet it coz you wont gain anything if he didn't outdrew you!