are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

anyone here think that turbos are a crapshoot? I mean, in MTTs i play very tight early and then can usually make the top 10 or top 15 then it becomes a total luckdraw. im talking in the 45 man or the 180 man. i know u gotta take more chances when ur deeper in the field, but would u guys say that REGULAR tournaments are more profitable as opposed to the turbos?

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

not the way i play them

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
...but would u guys say that REGULAR tournaments are more profitable as opposed to the turbos?

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On a per tournament basis, yes. But keep in mind they don't take as long, so you can play more in a given period of time. Not saying either is more profitable than the other, it's just comparing apples and oranges.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
in MTTs i play very tight early and then can usually make the top 10 or top 15

[/ QUOTE ]

This may help you

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in MTTs i play very tight early and then can usually make the top 10 or top 15

[/ QUOTE ]

This may help you

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

i do not understand is there something wrong with my game? lol

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
i do not understand is there something wrong with my game? lol

[/ QUOTE ]
Not at all, if you usually make top 10/15 you're pretty damn banging.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i do not understand is there something wrong with my game? lol

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yes, if you play real tight early and make it to the top 1/3 or so and then don't cash or close out. you are probably missing lots of spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

I dont know what to say... i dont exaggerate when i say about 80% of the time i end up making top 10 in a 45 man and cash about 1 in every 4 or 5. but i do play out of my bankroll and cant stick to tournies and lose lots at cash. lol. i play low stakes though so its not much a problem. im just wondering if u think its better to play the longer structure rather than the 5 min turbos... especially if im just playing tight and waitin for a hand.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know what to say... i dont exaggerate when i say about 80% of the time i end up making top 10 in a 45 man and cash about 1 in every 4 or 5. but i do play out of my bankroll and cant stick to tournies and lose lots at cash. lol. i play low stakes though so its not much a problem. im just wondering if u think its better to play the longer structure rather than the 5 min turbos... especially if im just playing tight and waitin for a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can promise you. With 100% certainty, without a shadow of a doubt, that you do not finish in the top 10 of 45 man MTT's 80% of the time.

You really should write down some sessions, see how far off this number is(I suspect...quite a bit) and then re-evaluate whether you think your playing these properly.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont know what to say... i dont exaggerate when i say about 80% of the time i end up making top 10 in a 45 man and cash about 1 in every 4 or 5. but i do play out of my bankroll and cant stick to tournies and lose lots at cash. lol. i play low stakes though so its not much a problem. im just wondering if u think its better to play the longer structure rather than the 5 min turbos... especially if im just playing tight and waitin for a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can promise you. With 100% certainty, without a shadow of a doubt, that you do not finish in the top 10 of 45 man MTT's 80% of the time.

You really should write down some sessions, see how far off this number is(I suspect...quite a bit) and then re-evaluate whether you think your playing these properly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sample size, ftw

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

They're not necessarily a crapshoot but you can say there is certainly more variance associated with them. You will have to play more of these over the long run than you will/should in "regular" tournies to equal the same amount of deep finishes... theoretically anyways.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

YES

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

I used to avoid Tubros as a rule - I felt the exact same way as the OP. "If you think you're better than average, play a deeper stack tourney and you'll have more opportunity to exploit your edge".

This is true, to a degree, but two things made me change my mind about the Turbos:

1) Even if my ROI is 5% higher in non-turbos, since I can play 50% more Turbos, I can get a higher profit from the lower ROI.

2) I realized that my opponents are over-compensating for the speed of the turbo, making many more mistakes as compared to the regular speed tourneys. I can exploit this to my advantage.

What I've found is that while I have more bubbles / early exits from the Turbos, I have more wins than 4th and 5th place finishes in them. It's truly a "build a big stack or head home" scenario on the bubble, and once I have that big stack, I can exploit the smaller stacks into making mistakes. (and those mistakes are more frequent than the regular speed tourneys).

So I like 'em.

OT

ps - plus, having a baby, I can afford the hour to play a turbo 45... I can't afford the 2+ for a regular speed one...

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

hourly rate ftw!

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

Double up then use your full time bank every hand. works like a charm

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]

I can promise you. With 100% certainty, without a shadow of a doubt, that you do not finish in the top 10 of 45 man MTT's 80% of the time.

You really should write down some sessions, see how far off this number is(I suspect...quite a bit) and then re-evaluate whether you think your playing these properly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a decent record at 45 man MTTs. To be honest to OP, I think you are not shoving in late position enough. Alot of players think that certain games are "high variance" to make themselves feel better about dumping off money in said games. I can tell you solidly that I believe that 45 man MTTs have the lowest variance, in part because your edges are so big playing against casual players, that any variance is quickly negated. I honestly believe it is worse than 3.5 standard deviations from the mean to be losing after 2 weeks of playing $60/45s (for me.) So, in short, and with all honesty, if you feel like its a crapshoot, it probably means you suck (at the format), or you have not played enough (I think about 500 games is sufficent to have a very good idea how strong you are in those.) Playing 45 man MTTs, I have never seen worse play in my entire life, and I have played nano-cash at PartyPoker.

It is true that he is probably making the top 2 tables atleast 45% the time though. I think if I just tried to make the top 2 tables, I could do this probably better than 55% - but I have no stats to back that up. Under normal playing conditions (playing for maximum +$EV) there is not much change in my strategy, and I probably rate to be at the top two tables atleast 45 and probably closer to 50%, though.

AWice

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in MTTs i play very tight early and then can usually make the top 10 or top 15

[/ QUOTE ]

This may help you

[/ QUOTE ]

Winner!!

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]


It is true that he is probably making the top 2 tables atleast 45% the time though. I think if I just tried to make the top 2 tables, I could do this probably better than 55% - but I have no stats to back that up. Under normal playing conditions (playing for maximum +$EV) there is not much change in my strategy, and I probably rate to be at the top two tables atleast 45 and probably closer to 50%, though.

AWice

[/ QUOTE ]

At the lower levels - $6 and $3 / 45's - I believe you could simply fold into the top two tables. Don't know what the $60/45's would be like.

(why you'd do this, I can't say. But outlasting 27 people is not difficult in this format - the play is so bad, people bust out very quickly at the beginning.)

Not that it means much, but I've played 77 $3/45's so far this month. I've busted:

10 times with 5 tables left (13%)
15 times with 4 tables left (19%)
19 times with 3 tables left (25%)
13 times with 2 tables left (17%)
20 times at the final table (26%)


So without it being my goal, I've finished at the top 2 tables 43% of the time.

OT

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

turbo is more luck

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

just get really lucky every hand so the blinds wont kill u

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
I used to avoid Tubros as a rule - I felt the exact same way as the OP. "If you think you're better than average, play a deeper stack tourney and you'll have more opportunity to exploit your edge".

This is true, to a degree, but two things made me change my mind about the Turbos:

1) Even if my ROI is 5% higher in non-turbos, since I can play 50% more Turbos, I can get a higher profit from the lower ROI.

2) I realized that my opponents are over-compensating for the speed of the turbo, making many more mistakes as compared to the regular speed tourneys. I can exploit this to my advantage.

What I've found is that while I have more bubbles / early exits from the Turbos, I have more wins than 4th and 5th place finishes in them. It's truly a "build a big stack or head home" scenario on the bubble, and once I have that big stack, I can exploit the smaller stacks into making mistakes. (and those mistakes are more frequent than the regular speed tourneys).

So I like 'em.

OT

ps - plus, having a baby, I can afford the hour to play a turbo 45... I can't afford the 2+ for a regular speed one...

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly what he said...I used to be a anti-turbo guy beut killing the 12 180's...more variance but more poor lay too and skill does play a part

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

I think Double Ice just called me a bad player =(.

Please stop coaching others.

I'm pretty sure my it's easy to win/lose 3.5 std. dev.....I have no idea what you consider to be 1 s.d. though....cause I've played many of them and have gone through +/- 3k downswings pretty quickly.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think Double Ice just called me a bad player =(.

Please stop coaching others.

I'm pretty sure my it's easy to win/lose 3.5 std. dev.....I have no idea what you consider to be 1 s.d. though....cause I've played many of them and have gone through +/- 3k downswings pretty quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, I don't know what I am talking about. Sorry to insult you. Hope you win at the tables soon.

AWice

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think Double Ice just called me a bad player =(.

Please stop coaching others.

I'm pretty sure my it's easy to win/lose 3.5 std. dev.....I have no idea what you consider to be 1 s.d. though....cause I've played many of them and have gone through +/- 3k downswings pretty quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

+1..im probably playing bad too but dam i have gone on some sick runs in turbos..won like 15k in my first 500 and then have been on a 500 game break even/barely losing streak ever since

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

i, personally, love turbo tournaments. i don't think they turn into a "crapshoot" like most players, it's more of just a different endgame strategy imo. late in a turbo tournament with the blinds increasing or at any point where your stack is > M10 is all about looking for spots to get in a +EV position to double up or accumulate chips. turbo tournament endgame involves lots of shoving in position to pick up chips as the blinds and antes go up, and picking your spots very wisely, more so than a normal holdem tournament.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

don't play turbos, this could happen...

Poker Stars, $11 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 1,330
Hero (BB): 1,345
UTG: 975
UTG+1: 2,555
UTG+2: 2,370
MP1: 1,375
MP2: 1,370
CO: 1,200
BTN: 980

Pre-Flop: (75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to 150</font>, 2 folds, SB calls 125, <font color="red">Hero raises to 1,345 and is All-In</font>, MP2 folds, SB calls 1,180 and is All-In

Flop: (2,810) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: (2,810) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (2,810) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 2,810 Pot
SB showed 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a flush, King high) and WON 2,810 (+1,480 NET)
Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Sevens) and LOST (-1,330 NET)

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

Whoever said people use variance as an excuse for not winning, QFT. Variance is most strongly correlated to winrate. If you played better the variance would go down, period.

Turbos really force you to learn tournament-specific strategies which will help you in normal tourneys. You can't "wait for a better spot" because of the time crunch and stack sizes, so you learn to stick it in anywhere reasonably favorable and gamboooool fearlessly. And that mindset can be an enormous help in regular tournaments.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

im not saying that turbos have absolutely no skill to them cuz they do, im just saying your skillz arent valued or even needed that much in ANY turbo tournaments. pretty much u CAN fold ur way to the last final 2 tables... but like ppl said u gotta have a big stack in order to cash 1st. I think there is a lot more shoving in turbos, and as for variance, i dont have a big enough Samplesize for regular tournaments.

true that u can probably win more per hour playing turbos, but anyone know how much more ur ROI is for regular then as opposed to turbos?

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

ok, im pretty sure you didnt read any replies...

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

With the creation of the pushchart shouldn't short stack play be a bit easier?

Im thinking that if you can play a short stack better than your opponents, you should be able to maintain a positive ROI in the turbos while getting in more games than the standard structure that takes twice as long.

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

does anyone know what roi% to aim for the the turbo mtt sngs?

like whats a good roi for...

Pokerstars
$225/18's
$114/18's
$60/18's
$60/45's
$27/45's
$12/180's

Full tilts
$75/45's

Re: are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turbos really force you to learn tournament-specific strategies which will help you in normal tourneys. You can't "wait for a better spot" because of the time crunch and stack sizes, so you learn to stick it in anywhere reasonably favorable and gamboooool fearlessly. And that mindset can be an enormous help in regular tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Major QFT. I learned short-stack concepts very quickly playing $27R turbos on Tribeca about 18 months ago. And I had a decent ROI while I was at it.