Two Plus Two Newer Archives

Two Plus Two Newer Archives (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=56)
-   -   Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=466510)

RiverFenix 08-01-2007 12:23 PM

Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Since the 29th. Anyone running worse or much better?
http://img50.imageshack.us/img50/5417/settsib3.jpg

You can download the program here.

bizzym00 08-01-2007 12:26 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
i feel bad for you you just got NORMAL CURVED

jupiterpig 08-01-2007 12:51 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
This is since May 1 of this year, playing off and on. Is this good? I have no clue.

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/2527/setlg3.jpg

Stake Monster 08-01-2007 12:53 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
http://img119.imageshack.us/img119/9649/setskb7.jpg

i flopped a set 12.6% of the time.

IronFly 08-01-2007 12:59 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
this link is so awesome

ahnuld 08-01-2007 01:11 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
where is that file to upload your hands on your comp?

snagglepuss 08-01-2007 01:14 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
c:\program files\pokertracker\ptrack.mdb or whatever. mine was like ptrack3.mdb.

also, make sure you have your ptracker set under preferences to designate your screenname in PT as yours, because the set-o-meter automatically selects this as opposed to having a dropdown box to select a screenname.

ebepse 08-01-2007 01:20 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/7366/setsqe4.png

zomg i run bad

JaneTheHot 08-01-2007 01:26 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/6769/ughij4.jpg
I guess I run bad?

jupiterpig 08-01-2007 01:36 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
lifetime...

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/2...tometerlf9.jpg

HBomb 08-01-2007 01:36 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
lol whoever wrote this program must be obsessed with sets.

jsnipes28 08-01-2007 02:20 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
lol whoever wrote this program must be obsessed with sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

perhaps he is interested in a mining operation?

HBomb 08-01-2007 02:31 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Beat or Brag, only had KK vs AA 13 times since Oct. 2004. This is a standard month for me.

sixsixtie 08-01-2007 02:31 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
hahah I am down money with sets of queens!

LionelHutz00 08-01-2007 02:34 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e7...1/setsjuly.jpg

ikestoys 08-01-2007 02:38 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
does this ignore boats?

RiverFenix 08-01-2007 03:29 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Ike,
I know it counts quads. Not sure about boats.

Shizzle12345 08-01-2007 03:47 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
i want to know sbrugby's setometer

NajdorfDefense 08-01-2007 09:15 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/5...ter2007xc2.gif

Das Budrick 08-01-2007 09:30 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
I've been running hot lateley

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/1...meter81fg3.png

Das Budrick 08-01-2007 09:31 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
where on the curve is the norm?

tubasteve 08-01-2007 09:31 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
i have no idea what the graph actually means. anyone?? whats the pecentage, when does it turn blue, how is the damn graph generated???

Jiganti 08-01-2007 09:32 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Give me more programs like this. Srsly. Now.

blackize 08-01-2007 10:16 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Since the 30th

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/6022/wooxn8.jpg

ocdscale 08-01-2007 10:25 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
The more blue it is, the better you're running.
Having it exactly 50% blue 50% red is what you would expect on average.

creative 08-01-2007 10:32 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
really? 50/50

im not really thinking right now but that doesnt make too much sense to me

TurtlePiss 08-01-2007 10:37 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Yes 50/50. Either you flop a set or you don't.

pa3lsvt 08-01-2007 10:40 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
really? 50/50

im not really thinking right now but that doesnt make too much sense to me

[/ QUOTE ]

The curve is the probability curve of flopping a set. The std dev is probably calculated using your sample size.

If you are 50/50 on the graph, you have flopped exactly as many sets as you should have (i.e. results = mean probability).

LionelHutz00 08-01-2007 10:47 PM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
i have no idea what the graph actually means. anyone?? whats the pecentage, when does it turn blue, how is the damn graph generated???

[/ QUOTE ]
the x axis is the number of sets. the y axis is the probability that you flop a set that number of times.

Look at blackize's graph. given the number of hands that he's seen the flop with a pocket pair, he can expect to flop exactly 5 sets 6% of the time. He can expect to flop 10 sets ~13% of the time. and so forth.

The line represents the number of sets you've flopped in real life.

So if the blue area > the red area, you run good.

bfc 08-02-2007 12:42 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]

I know it counts quads. Not sure about boats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Working backwards from the example given on the home page it appears it counts sets, boats, and quads.

At the risk of being flamed for posting theory in BBV, this is what I believe it does.

It defines "flopping a set" as "the flop contains at least one of the two remaining Xs when you hold XX".

The probability of this occurring in any given hand is 1-(48/50*47/49*46/48)=0.11755102

In the author's example he saw 1042 flops with pocket pairs so expected to flop 1042*0.11755102=122.5 "sets or better". This is the expected number of flopped sets. In actuality he only flopped 101 sets (the variance we know and love).

As others have said, the curve is the probability distribution of number of flopped sets (the expected value (i.e., mean value) is the peak). If we assume a binomial distribution then the standard deviation is sqrt(n*p*(1-p))=10.4.

Approximately 95% of the distribution should be within 2 standard deviations of the mean (assuming a normal approximation to the binomial). That is, between 102 and 143. If your actual number of flopped sets is in the tails (less than 102 or greater than 143) then you have been running either extremely hot or extremely cold (at least when it comes to flopping sets).

A_C_Slater 08-02-2007 01:04 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
Is it supposed to take forever when you click Run? I tried uploading the last year and after 20 minutes of the hourglass I just gave up and closed the damn thing.

Karak567 08-02-2007 02:26 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
my flopped sets are way down

but get this

ive flopped 5 sets vs overpairs and won only twice...

ive flopped 8 sets with 88 and have lost 14 dollars

ive flopped 6 sets with TT and have lost 51 dollars

i run so [censored] bad

idontlikeyou 08-02-2007 02:38 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

vozzie 08-02-2007 03:18 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's probably it. Let's ignore the fact that the other players can actually fold preflop.

remski 08-02-2007 03:19 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]


Your not always seeing a flop with AA, ie. raise and all opponents fold preflop...

aardvarksrus 08-02-2007 03:20 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

levelling?

remski 08-02-2007 03:20 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's probably it. Let's ignore the fact that the other players can actually fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

2nd...

vhawk01 08-02-2007 03:29 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

levelling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Number of posts ~= percent chance of levelling.

aardvarksrus 08-02-2007 03:39 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so let me get this straight...both of you have folded AA preflop? you're AA dealt to see flop ratio isnt 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

levelling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Number of posts ~= percent chance of levelling.

[/ QUOTE ]

That will teach me to check post count first [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

1968 08-02-2007 04:03 AM

Re: Beat: I forget what a set looks like - setometer
 
So this means I run bad yeah?
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~customgr/setometer.jpg


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:42 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.