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-   -   so you're 61/33, sir (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=556913)

Trivial 11-29-2007 12:37 AM

so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
i was 12 tabling at the time, so absolutely no clue on this guy's postflop game. all i had was that he was playing 61/33 over 85 hands, with aggression factors 2/8/inf by street. enough info to warrant playing for stacks?

$5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $2,844
BTN: $2,897.75
SB: $791.50
BB: $990
UTG: $453
MP: $252.25

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $30</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $80</font>, Hero calls $50

Flop: ($165) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $80</font>, Hero calls $80

Turn: ($325) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $150</font>, Hero calls $150

River: ($625) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $680 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $680

homeboy604 11-29-2007 12:44 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
is this a rickroll?

xwowsersx 11-29-2007 01:01 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
I think you must be kidding when you suggest that these stats alone can support this pretty huge call. Maybe I just suck.

Marwan 11-29-2007 01:05 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
there will be so many opportunities to stack a guy like this, this doesn't look like one of them.. I'd say that &lt;1% of maniacs will 3-barrel with air after 3-betting PF.

nuggetz87 11-29-2007 01:05 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think you must be kidding when you suggest that these stats alone can support this pretty huge call. Maybe I just suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

RockyElsom 11-29-2007 01:12 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
Na, overplayed top pair way too often. Fold the river and nh.

annex21 11-29-2007 02:12 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
In my experience half pot, half pot, full pot, is either a strong hand that has been missing value or a big suckout on the river, which wouldnt really make sense here.

so no thats not enuf info, fold river, but why are you raising and calling 3bets with 56os, surely you can find a better spot on this maniac...?

cowpig 11-29-2007 02:15 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
i dont really like it; once that J hits the turn and he fires i fold

not enough crap in his for him to multi-barrel (most people don't make big bluffs with showdown equity), and it's not really the kind of board he's going to want to bluff so much

*** 11-29-2007 02:35 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
These guys make money (or lose it more slowly than you think) because people think that because villain is so crazy preflop and on the flop that when the big bets go in he is still FOS. He isn't, and the board texture is not very good for this kind of call down.

MadManJ 11-29-2007 03:53 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
Well, IMO I dont think its that bad, with his aggro factor, your prob good here about 60% of the time. But Id find me a better spot, and there will be. Becouse you dont need to gamble with this guy.

Eagles 11-29-2007 03:56 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
How wide does he 3bet pf? Eithe rway this is pretty awful. and what *** said is correct.

HedonismBot 11-29-2007 04:25 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well, IMO I dont think its that bad, with his aggro factor, your prob good here about 60% of the time. But Id find me a better spot, and there will be. Becouse you dont need to gamble with this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol why gamble with anybody then

bigbabyjesus 11-29-2007 04:33 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
Whose the fish again?

ocklind 11-29-2007 05:53 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
Not enough info. Fold!!!

El_Hombre_Grande 11-29-2007 09:22 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well, IMO I dont think its that bad, with his aggro factor, your prob good here about 60% of the time. But Id find me a better spot, and there will be. Becouse you dont need to gamble with this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a meh hand with a bad kicker in a re-raised pot.
Its not against the rules for this guy to have a hand; What's his re-raising range preflop from the BB? Got to be something less than 33%, so you probably started behind. The flop was meh, OK, then the turn sucked and now you want to play for stacks?

If I though it was 60/40 then I'd make the solid investment. This ain't 60/40. Its worse. he may be going to town with 22-55, but the same is true for 77 -10-10 and random (censored) that did or did not hit the flop. Alot of Broadway junk that makes up this idiots range hit a K or a J.

Boquense 11-29-2007 11:50 AM

Re: so you\'re 61/33, sir
 
I find that for a super donkey to full pot shove anything is really suspect (most of the time they want a call and don't want to scare you away). Depending on villain, I could see myself calling this if I had seen him trying to "value bet" rivers where he actually turned up with a hand.

Based on stats alone I guess you fold here, but its not as clear cut as some are saying. Turn seems to be the place for the fold also.


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