400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Villain seems pretty solid, running @ 22/13/1.6. Whats your response to this check raise? I don't think he's doing this with air, but the flop is kind of drawy. Is there any profitable way to continue in this hand?

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

BTN: $901.70
SB: $495.30
BB: $449
Hero (UTG): $445
MP: $82
CO: $453.90

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $16</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $14, BB folds

Flop: ($36) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $28</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $76</font>

Hero ...?

If you'd call here, what turns would you call another barrel?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

you beat 88 or A7s. can't see him flatting 45 outta the sb.

i should get pokerstove, but i'd put range as KcQc/QcJc/AcXc, etc /77/33/22/88 maybe 66.

regardless, it's very close and I'd like to see pokerstover numbers...but i wouldn't love getting in here against any of those flush draws, except for the fact that we have a club. But I think you can confidently fold here.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
you beat 88 or A7s. can't see him flatting 45 outta the sb.

i should get pokerstove, but i'd put range as KcQc/QcJc/AcXc, etc /77/33/22/88 maybe 66.

regardless, it's very close and I'd like to see pokerstover numbers...but i wouldn't love getting in here against any of those flush draws, except for the fact that we have a club. But I think you can confidently fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I appreciate/ agree with your analysis. I think, given his flop aggression factor, his hands are weighted towards those that are beating me. I guess I have to get a better idea of villains range when he cold calls an UTG raise OOP.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

anyone else agree sometimes villian shows up with like AJo here or KQo?

Perhaps this is just my experience, but i've seen some 22/11s or w/e do some of this stupid [censored] and then just check it down if you call flop.

Meh.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
anyone else agree sometimes villian shows up with like AJo here or KQo?

Perhaps this is just my experience, but i've seen some 22/11s or w/e do some of this stupid [censored] and then just check it down if you call flop.

Meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its possible, but unlikely. Don't see this 22 VPIP cold calling with a hand like that OOP, no less from an UTG raise. But, even if it is possible, his check raise on this flop almost completely out rules mere overs. I guess I have to put him on a set or 88/TT/JJ. I don't think I'm really in great shape vs. his range.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Lets overanalyse and generalise a stat number to help us with complicated flop decisions!

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

With a post flop aggression of 1.6 I would fold here. He's probably either got a flush draw with two overs in which case it's a flip, or a set, TT, or JJ in which case you're way behind.

I doubt he would C/R with A7.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

I'd fold. He's not messing around enough.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

What people aren't considering is that 99 = AA here. Of course, 99 is outdrawn by overs whereas AA is not, but if that's what the difference is, you should be calling with 99.

AF = 1.6 = Makes 99 a lean towards fold and QQ+ a call by a narrow margin imo. JJ is the toughest hands to deal with in this spot. Unless you know his 3betting range.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
What people aren't considering is that 99 = AA here. Of course, 99 is outdrawn by overs whereas AA is not, but if that's what the difference is, you should be calling with 99.

AF = 1.6 = Makes 99 a lean towards fold and QQ+ a call by a narrow margin imo. JJ is the toughest hands to deal with in this spot. Unless you know his 3betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA isn't like 99. AA is doing much better against his broadway flush draws. AA beats TT and JJ, which can very well be played this way by villian. It's even possible he's trapping QQ and KK preflop.

These definitely make my decision (to stack off) with AA easy. I do agree JJ is a very tough decision in this spot. I would probably stack off with it, though.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Slowplayed overpairs are definitely a part of his range, which makes AA different and due to the large difference between his pfr and vpip - villain is often calling to wide oop.

AA fairs sooo much better against a range when he has undercard flush drawset..

Just think about what you're saying . Folding AA just because he has a low aggression factor and we get CRed. Are we only ever continuing when CR'ed if we flop the nuts then?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Against low aggression factors? If they checkraise my flop bet once every 30 times, I can afford to fold AA, don't you think?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Nope, I almost never fold AA 100bb deep. For the AF, we don't know how many hands it's over, but to be folding AA there you have to put his range exactly on sets and nothing else.

You don't think they checkraise draws? All tags do that, even if they are "passive' otherwise.

His overall AF could be low as well due to his passivity pre-flop.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
What people aren't considering is that 99 = AA here. Of course, 99 is outdrawn by overs whereas AA is not, but if that's what the difference is, you should be calling with 99.


[/ QUOTE ]

no way the equity of overcards+FD in his range plus the fact he can have TT and JJ make AA way better than 99 here. 99 is a fold here really quick

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Lets try a poll:

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

wtf at folding AA 110bb deep... COME ON

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

wtf how is 99 = AA here? overcard flush draws, overpairs, etc. make up at least some % of his range for a flop CR. 99 is a significantly worse hand to have than AA because if you were for example calling down any non flush turn and river (or even turn) it'd be much higher variance because a "harmless" card like a 10 or J could pair him easily. when you have AA you have no fear of that and you're much further ahead of his range.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

this is never a fold against anyone but the nittiest nit.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

there is no way AA = 99

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is never a fold against anyone but the nittiest nit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then there are a lot of nittiest of nits out there.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

folding AA here. LOL

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
folding AA here. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf at folding AA 110bb deep... COME ON

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to agree with slider here regarding AA. I'm not sure that felting is a certainty, but at least calling the check raise and evaluating on the turn, especially being in position. Theres no doubt that a lot of his range includes TT+ and possibly draws, though I'm fairly confident, given his PF play, that he wouldn't call an UTG raise with small suited connectors. But, like Slider said, you cannot just immediately narrow a villains range to exactly a set just because he check raises you on this flop.
Truthfully, the fact that the flop is all low cards, makes him holding an overpair even more likely. Many would take his line with 99+ on this flop.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
folding AA here. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Why has this turned into what you'd do with AA? Obv no one is folding it.

Given his stats, I'd strong imagine he has either 7xs or a broadway FD. I'd expect him to repop AA-QQ pf. Sure sometimes he'll show up with an overpair to your 99 or with a set, but I'm getting it in.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
folding AA here. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know who got the impression that folding AA was right here, but clearly, you aren't reading. I'm wrong, 99 DNE AA. I also stated that I would not fold AA. I contradicted myself and you're only taking one half of the argument...And it was the half that made little sense (my thoughts cleared up later in the post).

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

I would fold the AA but call the 99 since they are not equal, Does that clear things up?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Players with an AF that low are generally pretty weak. I think 99 is a fairly straightforward fold here. While this might be a pure bluff very occasionally, huge majority of the time this is going to be a set or a hand that has 14 outs against you.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Anyone who folds AA here sucks.

Anyone who doesn't think calling is an option plays too much fit or fold poker.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why has this turned into what you'd do with AA? Obv no one is folding it.

Given his stats, I'd strong imagine he has either 7xs or a broadway FD. I'd expect him to repop AA-QQ pf. Sure sometimes he'll show up with an overpair to your 99 or with a set, but I'm getting it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

As always, I really appreciate the feedback. I think my hand might have some showdown value, but I disagree with feeling too confident about getting it in here. I think his range for cold calling an UTG raise means that he usually has an overpair, set, or broadway flush. So I'm not really much of a favorite against villains check raising range on this flop. If there were more draws I'd be more inclined to get it in.

Anyone interested in results?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Uhh, you folded right?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

I would call and reevaluate on turn with no better reads on villan.

Altough folding is also no mistake.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($901.70)
SB ($495.30)
BB ($449)
Hero ($445)
MP ($82)
CO ($453.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls $14, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($36) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $76</font>, Hero calls $48.

Turn: ($188) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($188) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $188

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Broadway flush draw?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

sorry, I meant to have the results in that last post.

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $901.70
SB: $495.30
BB: $449
Hero (UTG): $445
MP: $82
CO: $453.90

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $16</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $14, BB folds

Flop: ($36) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $28</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $76</font>, Hero calls $48

Turn: ($188) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($188) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $188 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Tens) and WON $185 (+$93 NET)
Hero mucked 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and LOST (-$92 NET)

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

When that 5 hits river and he checks it's a great spot to put in a $150 river bet and rep the A.