200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

Villain here is 11/4/0.7 over 200 hands. The only other hand he's shown down was an AQ where he limped PF, flop of AKx and he checked flop and turn and called a small river bet. Is this turn a bet/3-bet AI or given villain do I check/call? I was running bad last night and seemed like every choice I made was wrong, so wanted to double check this one in particular.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $179.25
BB: $282.70
UTG: $193.00
UTG+1: $406.85
MP1: $213.50
<u>Hero (MP2): $235.80</u>
CO: $238.65
<u>BTN: $233.40</u>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2.00, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $9.00, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $7.00

Flop: ($30) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $22.00</font>, BTN calls $22.00, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($74) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $59.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $202.40</font>, Hero calls $143.40

River: ($478.80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $478.80 ($3 Rake)

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

Villian seems pretty passive pre and post flop. I doubt he limps AK from UTG+1 even with those stats, so I have to put him on a set here. Checking the turn seems so weak, so I like a bet, but it got us in trouble. I think at best youre on a freeroll against AK, but most likely youre drawing to an A, K, or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and you don't have the odds. This hand is a cooler, I think I would go broke here as well.

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

Villain is the button here. UTG+1 folds the flop. An 11/4 will very likely cold call with AK here preflop.

If villain's entire range consists of 77 and 22, then Hero is getting 2.34 to 1 to draw to a 2.38 to 1. AA and KK are very unlikely.

Against a range of top two and sets, Hero has 38% equity, which makes this an easy call. Folding is pretty awful, actually. The only question is whether to bet the turn, but I can't see much of an argument not to.

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

oops, misread hand, yup, sounds good

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

Thanks for the math Buddha. When the turn came, it just looked like such a good card, then when he pushed I pretty much knew what I was up against, but just couldn't pull the fold trigger. Considering the slight chance I could be freerolling, I guess I have to call and get there better.

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

I get it all in here as well.

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

pretty sure he has top 2 on the flop, or 77. however, i still never fold this on the turn. you have top 2, with redraws, you have the nut flush.

you have 9 + 4 outs given WORST case scenario. (well, he could always have AA i suppose, but that would be strange and...sick).

against any opponent with agg, i c/r AI this turn. just get it in.

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure he has top 2 on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has top2 on the flop, there is noway in hell he's 11VPIP, or 20 or 25 prob not till around 40 will you see K7coldcall

you have 11nut 2nd nut outs its one buyin ...

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure he has top 2 on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has top2 on the flop, there is noway in hell he's 11VPIP, or 20 or 25 prob not till around 40 will you see K7coldcall

you have 11nut 2nd nut outs its one buyin ...

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, meant top 2 on turn (chop chop) or 77/22

Re: 200NL - Top two and nut flush draw
 

this seems fine