Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

SB is ok and almost surely has a set. Button is horrible and I'm about 90% sure he is going all in on the turn no matter what I do. Button has 185 left on turn so if he pushes it doesn't reopen the betting. Can I call this and fold river unimproved? The bet size by SB put me right in the gray area I thought.

Thanks,
DeathDonkey

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1355.60)
Button ($289.30)
SB ($431)
BB ($186.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, Button calls $14, SB calls $12, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($56) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $45</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $90</font>, SB calls $90, BB folds, Hero calls $45.

Turn: ($326) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $110</font>,

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

This is only grey because SB won't have enough to get away on the river. However, while you say he is "ok", this turn bet would have him pegged as a bit of a donkey in my book.

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

if button always pushes and sb always just calls you are getting 185:881 ~ 20% equity, approx 20% chance of hitting. so a call seems fine at first. however, sb would only have 142, 1/6 psb, so he's probably pushing.

so if you want to see the river you are really calling the sb's 110 + 217 = 327 on the turn. so you are really getting 327 into a pot of (326 + 327 (sb)+ 327(hero) + 185(bt)= 1165. 327:1165 ~ 30% equity. so this looks like a fold.

edit: so if sb thinks button is pushing regardless, this donk bet is good b/c it makes it look like you have pretty good odds.

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

I would say SB has a set. I would be worried about button coming over the top if u flatcalled becuz he minraised flop (prob with monster) , so in this case, I'd probably fold. If you had the button this would be much easier to draw with these great odds. BTW shoving here is terrible becuz IMO someone has a monster here def IMO and there is no FE

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

Don't mean to be a dick but you last two guys didn't read my post very carefully. SB cannot reraise if button pushes because he doesn't have enough left to re-open the betting. Thank you for the quick equity calc tarheeljks, I think that settles it for me and it was a fine call. With the timer running down I knew it was close so I thought I better check up on myself. It's also a bit better as I have implied odds of the rest of SB's stack and zero reverse implied odds.

Agreed a turn push would be ridiculous. No happy ending, I bricked off, SB pushed and won with 44 to beat button's KJ.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

roughly this is 4:1 on the initial call and if button pushes it's gonna be 7:2 on the call if you count it as making the decision on the turn, and you need ~6:1(discouting heart outs)

i say roughly this is a call for me, (roughly the right odds, and also the times when tehy just come up with some random holding)


FWIW, i do not think this is always a set....

it really looks like a flush draw to me?

but i guess that depends on how bad SB is...

but i'd call

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

maybe this seems dumb, but wouldn't you want to stick it in on the flop if you think sb has set and button has something dumb to stack with?

Re: Dumb probably math question 400 NL
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

105,651 games 0.015 secs 7,043,400 games/sec

Board: Js Kh 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.916% 25.31% 00.60% 26745 636.00 { QhTc }
Hand 1: 66.988% 66.99% 00.00% 70773 0.00 { 4c4h, 4c4s, 4h4s }
Hand 2: 07.096% 06.49% 00.60% 6861 636.00 { AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }

Looks like a definite no.

dchz, I wouldn't discount diamonds and you said its a call despite that so ok I'm happy with the play.

-DeathDonkey