Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

man the NFL should get on that.. stupid

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
kyro you put a lot of time in for a $5 unit...that kind of discipline will ultimately propel your game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well mostly I just hate my job.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

i live ~20 miles outside of milwaukee and I will be getting it on ABC fwiw

btw go pack -7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]

btw go pack -7

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to lineshop better.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

one of you math weenies has the answer - which is the better line

GB +7 -110
GB +7.5 -122

And for FF - pick 2 of 3 - Grant, J Lewis, M Jones-Drew (i get points for return TDs but no yards towards bonus)
?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
one of you math weenies has the answer - which is the better line

GB +7 -110
GB +7.5 -122


[/ QUOTE ]

Posted by someone earlier: http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

I'm taking Dallas -7 (bodog. Favre 0-8 in Dallas su and 1-7 ATS there

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
hmm...beat:

MIA and STL, a combined 2-18
a pretty bad CHI team
a bad MIN team
overrated NYG's twice
PHI-bad
WAS, decent win there
NYJ....

combined record of opponents that they beat 36-61

GB: 52-57


[/ QUOTE ]

Well yeah, that's because Dallas lost to a an undefeated team and the Packers lost to a team below .500. That's some pretty dishonest manipulation of data right there. Losing to a bad team is as much of a barometer of a team's ability as beating a bad team. The Cowboys and Packers have played pretty similar schedules. Packers have had a slightly harder schedule in pure win-loss, Cowboys with a slightly harder (though possibly skewed by the NE game) from a DVOA standpoint.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

NFL Network just announced both KGB and Woodson will not be playing fwiw.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

pack +7.5 -117 (WSEX)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

I've been wavering on the total. My numbers tell me to take the over. Everything else says it's a tarp. I'm going to stay off. All I have for the night are:

Packers +7 (-115)
Risk 1u

Cowboys ML (-275)
Risk 2.934u

Yes, I realize those two combined are -EV. I made the Cowboys bet when I decided I didn't quite care for my Packers +7 bet. Hoping this game is won on a last second FG by Nick Folk.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Question...

Apparently I DO have the NFL Network. Will I be able to see the game or will I have to order the special package or something? I seem to recall people not being able to see any games on the NN even though getting the channel was in their cable package.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Rocking Dallas -3 in the 2nd quarter at +100.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

donk teaser of Packers +13 and o45 for a unit.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Question...

Apparently I DO have the NFL Network. Will I be able to see the game or will I have to order the special package or something? I seem to recall people not being able to see any games on the NN even though getting the channel was in their cable package.

[/ QUOTE ]
afaik if you receive NN, you receive the game, though I'm sure u know either way by this point.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

this is an active thread so i need some quick help with a dumb question: On Wsex my co-worker wants to place some futures bets...i.e. bet on dallas to win the superbowl.

when u go to the site it says

Dallas Sell: 11 Buy: 13 then +669

If u click on buy or sell it asks u to place an order and for dallas it say $13 buy and then # of contracts...i assume that means number of future bets.

so is it simply saying you want to buy a future bet of Dallas +669 to win SB and your wager is $13? When u click on the buy menu it goes as low as $1 and as high as $23. WTF?

I'm totally [censored] lost???? and i tried reading the help instructions on the site. any help for a retard please

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

$13 buy = pay 13, if it wins they pay 100

so if you buy 5 contracts it'll cost you $65 and if they win you'll get $500 back

if they make it to the superbowl and the sell is like 30

then you can sell your 5 contracts and get $150 back or let it ride

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Question...

Apparently I DO have the NFL Network. Will I be able to see the game or will I have to order the special package or something? I seem to recall people not being able to see any games on the NN even though getting the channel was in their cable package.

[/ QUOTE ]
afaik if you receive NN, you receive the game, though I'm sure u know either way by this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I get it. Very happy. My roommate said we didn't get it so I wasn't sure at first.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Holy [censored] Gumble must be trying his hardest to make this game seem boring. He's the worst [censored] announcer ever.

aksdf;lashdf;hasjkdfhjasdfasdf F U GUMBLE

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
$13 buy = pay 13, if it wins they pay 100

so if you buy 5 contracts it'll cost you $65 and if they win you'll get $500 back

if they make it to the superbowl and the sell is like 30

then you can sell your 5 contracts and get $150 back or let it ride

[/ QUOTE ]

ok.
so whatever the buy is always = bet this and u win $100.

Why do they allow u to buy for more than $13..i.e u can go all the way up to 23. and why even list the +669

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Favre looks awful early on

omg ship teh long rushing td!!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rocking Dallas -3 in the 2nd quarter at +100.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that score happening in the 1st helped quite a bit. Go Cowboys.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$13 buy = pay 13, if it wins they pay 100

so if you buy 5 contracts it'll cost you $65 and if they win you'll get $500 back

if they make it to the superbowl and the sell is like 30

then you can sell your 5 contracts and get $150 back or let it ride

[/ QUOTE ]

ok.
so whatever the buy is always = bet this and u win $100.

Why do they allow u to buy for more than $13..i.e u can go all the way up to 23. and why even list the +669

[/ QUOTE ]

i never understood that either, never tried any of the other values so i dunno what happens if you pick it

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

cowboys -3 2H -115

2U

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
cowboys -3 2H -115

2U

[/ QUOTE ]

I love how everyone gets the abs best number posted.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

I got u24.5 -105 at BetJam.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
cowboys -3 2H -115

2U

[/ QUOTE ]

I love how everyone gets the abs best number posted.

[/ QUOTE ]

click refresh non stop on 3 books once halftime ends

it was -3 -120 at bookmaker for at least 2 minutes after i got -115

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$13 buy = pay 13, if it wins they pay 100

so if you buy 5 contracts it'll cost you $65 and if they win you'll get $500 back

if they make it to the superbowl and the sell is like 30

then you can sell your 5 contracts and get $150 back or let it ride

[/ QUOTE ]

ok.
so whatever the buy is always = bet this and u win $100.

Why do they allow u to buy for more than $13..i.e u can go all the way up to 23. and why even list the +669

[/ QUOTE ]

My take:

-If you "go all the way up to 23" you buy the max of 23 units @$13 each for $299

[ QUOTE ]
so whatever the buy is always = bet this and u win $100

[/ QUOTE ]
Understand that EACH unit pays exactly $100 if it wins. The buy/sell value of these units change throughout the season.
Bet the $13, win 87, get 100

[ QUOTE ]
"why even list the +669"

[/ QUOTE ]
For our benefit that's the decimal equivalent value of $13 becoming $100 ($13x6.69= $87 +13 = $100)

FWIW the buy/sell spread of $2 makes this around a 17% juice factor.


Rainbow...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

What a lucky break. TO has been pwning Harris all game.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been wavering on the total. My numbers tell me to take the over. Everything else says it's a tarp. I'm going to stay off. All I have for the night are:

Packers +7 (-115)
Risk 1u

Cowboys ML (-275)
Risk 2.934u

Yes, I realize those two combined are -EV. I made the Cowboys bet when I decided I didn't quite care for my Packers +7 bet. Hoping this game is won on a last second FG by Nick Folk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I finished up .03u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is Milwaukee the only place that is getting this game on ABC? I thought I heard it's only on satellite even in the rest of Wisconsin (maybe not GReenbay though).

Benny

[/ QUOTE ]

milw, green bay and dallas. thats it.

[/ QUOTE ]

We had it in Appleton too (30 min south of GB), and in HD, which was surprising. I thought we'd have some po-dunk local feed, as opposed to the NFL Network feed.

I'm gonna say good game overall. Although I'm disappointed with the loss, I'm not irate, which I usually would be.

I realize that this is the Sports Betting forum, and "gg overall" doesn't mean [censored], but I lurked the forum today while considering making a first-time sports bet (decided against it), and checked in post-game to see what others had to say.

After lurking, sports-betting seems harder than poker, so I'll catch you guys later.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
count me in as a stubborn non-believer of Farve and the pack.

Dal -6.5, 2u

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

on espn.com they have a basic poll asking who will win this game. I was shocked to see that they had 55% of the country thinking GB would win outright.

Dallas -6.5 baby


[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

as bsp as this sounds, farve is due for a downswing

[/ QUOTE ]

man i'm tired of being right...

pack was lucky to be in this game. Luckbox 60 yard run, and luckbox that Farve got injured because he was destined for a 10/35, 98 yard, 4 int performance

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

btw go pack -7

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to lineshop better.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha yea i guess i could have got them at -6.5 lol

my bad

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
donk teaser of Packers +13 and o45 for a unit.

[/ QUOTE ]
ship ship imo

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

so much for my 100 bucks...

cheesehead 4 life
benny

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

I loaded up on Dallas -3 -125 second half and I think this was wildly +ev. It was so obvious after the first half that
a) Dallas pass rush was ruining GB and nearly sacking the QB half the time
b) Kampman and GB's defensive line were not bringing pressure
c) TO was thrashing Harris
I did not predict any of these pregame, but I am happy that I recognized the value at halftime. I think Dallas covers this line about 2/3 of the time second half. hell if TO does anything but lateral the ball to GB, the bet doesn't lose, and I think GB was lucky to string together that one TD drive in the 2nd. plays that +ev don't come around that often, I'll bet more units next time.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Be very wary about games changing at halftime. Teams have time to re-evaluate things, the team in front tends to worry more about killing time than scoring points in the 4Q, that kind of thing. It's not just a case of "Zomg they're winning by 20 and they're +3".

I'm not going to go as far as to say you're doing it wrong, just be sure that you consider how team tactics will change as well as the things you mentioned in this one.