200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

villain is 25/20/3.5. seems decent, but a huge loser in my db over 6K hands. i've 3-bet him this session 1 time from the blinds and he folded. other than that, no history this session.


Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $310.50
CO: $218.65
Hero (BTN): $239.80
SB: $215.85
BB: $161
UTG: $76.15

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $7</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $17

Flop: ($51) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $32</font>, Hero ????

usually he's betting the flop here with the intention to 3-bet, amirite?

who likes a call and who likes a raise? and why?

personally, my instinct tells me to raise this because "OMG COMBO DRAW, 3BET POT." but i'm not so sure. thoughts?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

come on man, why did you even waste your time posting this?

obviously I know our equity is very good, and obviously I'm not folding.

my question was which is better?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

your read? Will he call a raise/shove? (how much FE do you think you have?)
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs....

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis imo. I would raise/call here since I still think people bet/fold like this a fairly decent amount with like weakish midpairs/air etc. If I've seen him do this with monsters before then calling is fine.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
your read? Will he call a raise/shove? (how much FE do you think you have?)
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs....

[/ QUOTE ]

With the str8 draw as well, you dont even need much FE.

I would just shove or raise depending on how you play your big hands on this flop normally.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs....

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you have 15 outs most of the time then you should be shoving the flop all day since a) You have the best hand equity-wise and b) you often get a fold (which would be incorrect on his part given the odds he is getting) since the best hand he can have is TPGK.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

I like calling. I think his range is monsters and hands taking a shot on the flop that will check/fold turn. Against monsters (TT/KK/AA/AK) we don't love getting all in, and we will stack him on the turn if we hit. So I think we will be able to get him to fold all hands on the turn that would have folded to a raise on the flop, and still stack him if we hit on the turn if he has a big hand.

Obviously this line means we only see 4 cards, but I still think a call is good.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
since the best hand he can have is TPGK.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a set not part of his range here?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis imo. I would raise/call here since I still think people bet/fold like this a fairly decent amount with like weakish midpairs/air etc. If I've seen him do this with monsters before then calling is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]
After we call the flop, we can almost always move him off midpairs and air on the turn or river anyway. Only the most suicidal would continue to bluff on the turn, since we could easily have a monster. He will check/fold all of those most of the time.

Sucks if he decides to CR his monsters though, but he will usually lead again with those. Even checking behind the turn and betting river when checked to should fold out all his junk if he has a brain.