Question on Variance & judging your play
 

Have been running the worst i ever have in MTT's. Here's my question. I can deal with getting rivered over and over and over and losing flips over and over, that's variance. However, I was wondering, when reviewing HH's and how you played, if you look at your session and find you were playing tad nitty but getting it in good 80% of the time, worst case just barely behind with multilple draws and overcards. Just because you are "getting it in good a lot", does that mean you are actually playing well and variance is just sticking its ugly black head out? or is it possible I am getting it in good, just in the wrong spots? I feel like if I'm going to be rivered, it doesn't really matter where you get it in, unless you get all the money in on fifth street drawing completely dead. Would like to hear successful players who turn a profit in this game opinions. Thanks.

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

have you determined if you were +EV when you got it in? Also, are you "getting it in enough?" Meaning, are you stealing pots under the right conditions, especially when antes kick in?

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

as I have played a ton and ton of MTT's, it's hard to determine exactly what % i get it in witih +EV, I do not have the stat programs or poker tracker a) cuz i have a mac b) i rarely play online, just find it easier sometimes to play from home than B&M. When analyzing live plays, you can go off your read, how they looked, how the situation felt (instincts wise) i feel online, you just go based off betting patterns and basic structural hand analysis. So with that said, let's say since i play tight and like to get it in good, at least 60-70% with at least a 60-40. Am i playing bad, or will I start running normal eventually and realize playing solid does work sometimes.

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

When you bust out, how is your stack compared to the average stack?

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you bust out, how is your stack compared to the average stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

This brings up a whole nother' question of mine: When I bust out I generally don't like to get lower than 10 BB's. A lot of the time when you are in that 12-15BB and you pick up KK in the cutoff, a large push of 14BB into a small pot in the lower MTT's generally will create crying calls with anthing from 33-55 or a3o - a7o. Double up there, and you can go back to seeing some flops and playing a less defensive game.

There are definitely times though when you will be at the final 3-4 tables of a large MTT and you are seated with 4 other large stacks. What do you in this positiion? I know the great MTT players feel they have an edge over everyone, so they don't mind battling with the big stacks.

In my case, I tend to avoid playing big pots wtih them unless I have a decently strong holding (not much floating the flop or 3-betting OP with air), however, I have been known to get in a large pot with them bust out and am left thinking to myself "I should have just coasted along bullying the medium stacks trying to move up)

Successful tourney players who plat FTP if you're out there, please respond and let me know how you deal with other large stacks at your table when you are medium high to big stacked in the final stages of a MTT. Thanks.

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

God Damnit. Post the question in ONE [censored] forum. NOT TWO!

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

vs other big stacks:

small ball unless you got the goods. (or if they are hella spewy)
win pots without show downs.

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

[ QUOTE ]
vs other big stacks:

small ball unless you got the goods. (or if they are hella spewy)
win pots without show downs.

[/ QUOTE ]

small ball unless i got the goods is standard for me
-if you say to win more pots without showdowns... does that mean i need start trusting my reads more and do more 3-betting, raising on earlier streets and then go with my read if villain shoves and puts me to a decision. I have noticed that lately I am becoming more of a check-caller and reaching many more showdowns than last month. Should i start raising more and finding out where I stand on the turn more to a)possibly end the hand without showing & b)hone my post flop play, becoming more comfortable with these larger pots i am building with more re-raises. I must admit, i come from gavin smith school and do not do much 3betting or re-raising.

Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
 

well if you are comfortably playing small ball and not reraising and that works then stick with that

but it seems like its not working as well as you would like (since you are unhappy with your results)

so i'd say that you do have a few good ideas
learning how to play in reraised pots is a good idea.
trusting your reads is always a good idea, but if you seem to be wrong more than right then take a note of that and fine-tune your "reads".

an example of winning without showdown is if you think they're full of [censored] or know their hand is not good enough to call a raise then raise them off of it. you dont have to call down with A high when you know youre good. you can also raise them off of their hand and take down the pot right then and there.

but making this play that is new to your repetoire should not become more of the rule than your tried and tested methods. just try to add it in more than you have been.

i've always been someone who found more things out on the flop than the turn, but i also realize that the turn can create an interesting dynamic (re: why floating works). its really almost theoretical to the point that you need to post some hands to talk about because its so situational.

when you play in the near future think of tools that good players use and think of: when they use them, who they use them against them, why the tools work, and how you can add them in and make your game better.