6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Here was the original thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post11970232

I figured we could use this thread to track everyone's progress throughout the year. Here are the official picks below. If I have made a mistake, then please let me know ASAP.

<u>Omahahahaha</u>
$200

Miami
Cleveland
Oakland
Green Bay
New York Giants
Kansas City


<u>Kdog</u>
$250

Atlanta
Buffalo
Cleveland
Detroit
Miami
Oakland


<u>NajdorfDefense</u>
$400

Miami
Houston
Oakland
Cleveland
Atlanta
Detroit


<u>Lpmatt</u>
$200

Cleveland
Houston
Buffalo
Atlanta
Oakland
Tennessee


<u>Methodz</u>
$200

Cleveland
Houston
Oakland
Tennessee
Buffalo
Atlanta


<u>trixtrix</u>
$2000

Buffalo
Cleveland
Houston
Tennessee
Kansas City
Oakland


<u>Amerzel</u>
$400

Atlanta
Miami
Oakland
Buffalo
Cleveland
Houston



Methodz and NajdorfDefense have asked Performify to hold the money for us. Therefore, I will soon be sending Performify $600($200+$400) on Stars. Performify please let me know when they have sent it to you as well. If I win the bet, I will be leaving Performify a small tip, and I would encourage you two to do the same should you win. All of the rest of the participants have chosen to exchange info and go by the honor system.


Broken down into teams, here is how many times each team was picked among the 7 entries:

Cleveland 7
Oakland 7
Houston 5
Atlanta 5
Buffalo 5
Miami 4
Tennessee 3
Detroit 2
Kansas City 2
Green Bay 1
New York Giants 1



Now a brief history on the bet....

It started 3 years ago with a buddy of mine. I challenged him to name 5 teams that wouldn't make the playoffs. No money was bet, just bragging rights. The SD Chargers went from 4-12 to 12-4 and lost him the bet.

Two years ago I went onto footballguys and challenged people to the bet. I searched for the old thread, but they routinely delete old threads to save space and I think thats what happened to it. Long story short, I got quite a few members there to bet me small amounts(I think $50 was the most bet by anyone) and astoundingly nobody even got 4 out of their 5 correct. IIRC the Bears, Giants, and Redskins ruined things for almost everyone.

I tried making the thread on footballguys again last year, but the mods there didn't like it and deleted it. Nevertheless, I challenged my buddy Robert(miami32 on these forums) to the bet for $1000. The Jets lost it for him, although he won a separate football bet against me, so we broke even.

I decided that 5 teams wasn't enough assurance for me, so as you can see I upped it to 6 this year.



Anyway, good luck to you all. I'm sure it'll be interesting to follow throughout the year. For the record, the picks that I think are the best are Houston and Cleveland because their divisions are too stacked for them to make a run at things. I think that Tennessee, Atlanta, and maybe even Oakland could cause some of you guys to lose the bet. I'm also very surprised that nobody picked Minnesota.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

go browns.

interesting bet, too...i offered my brother this bet, and he's supposed to call me before 1pm.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

atlanta is going to ruin this for a lot of people.

Michael Vick wasn't really any good. as an ATL people who watched them every week, subbing in Joey harrington is not going to hurt us. Vick hamstrung our team in so many ways, but o0o0o0o0o0o run fast dodge slip, so he must be good.

ATL's schedule is really easy. 9-7 will make the playoffs for us, and i predict that ATL ruins this bet for most of you.

this bet is a study in variance methinks. congrats on the hustle assani, bc that's what i think this is.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

my brother took the browns, bills, raiders, falcons, texans and chiefs.

seems like free money, and i wish i could've offered more people this...

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Oh sorry I missed this [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I know it's too late now but I'd have probably gone all-AFC - Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Titans, Browns &amp; Raiders.
Miami has a bad OL but outside of that they're not terrible &amp; a Jets-like streak of last yr I think is possible...losing to Wash obv. not a good start though.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
atlanta is going to ruin this for a lot of people.

Michael Vick wasn't really any good. as an ATL people who watched them every week, subbing in Joey harrington is not going to hurt us. Vick hamstrung our team in so many ways, but o0o0o0o0o0o run fast dodge slip, so he must be good.

ATL's schedule is really easy. 9-7 will make the playoffs for us, and i predict that ATL ruins this bet for most of you.

this bet is a study in variance methinks. congrats on the hustle assani, bc that's what i think this is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the one that worries me is Detroit. Their division, conference and schedule are weak enough that they could sneak in as second wild card.

Atlanta...they may not be much worse with Harrington instead of Vick but I don't see them being stronger. Vick saved a lot of drives with his legs. Harrington will have to attempt to do that with his arm and sub par receivers, something he has historically not been able to do.

The other four I chose from the AFC because the conference is loaded with good teams and it will be hard for any of last years bottom feeders to break through to the playoffs.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh sorry I missed this [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I know it's too late now but I'd have probably gone all-AFC - Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Titans, Browns &amp; Raiders.
Miami has a bad OL but outside of that they're not terrible &amp; a Jets-like streak of last yr I think is possible...losing to Wash obv. not a good start though.

[/ QUOTE ]

just live vicariously through my bet.. and no i'm not selling you a piece of it..

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Ha, nice I missed that.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
atlanta is going to ruin this for a lot of people.

Michael Vick wasn't really any good. as an ATL people who watched them every week, subbing in Joey harrington is not going to hurt us. Vick hamstrung our team in so many ways, but o0o0o0o0o0o run fast dodge slip, so he must be good.

ATL's schedule is really easy. 9-7 will make the playoffs for us, and i predict that ATL ruins this bet for most of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow, Oak and ATL don't worry me. Famous last words, I know, but I'm much more worried [b4 today] about Houston and Det, although Lions beating Oak doesn't bother me as one of them had to win.

I considered Minny, but a great D and 2 good RBs is a nice combo.

Joey Harrington won't hurt you. Do you mean physically or psychically?

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Joey Harrington kills the Falcons. Matt Schaub would've too. The rest of the offense was not structured to function with a standard quarterback.

People were even saying that Mike Vick couldn't scramble considering how much he got sacked. Harrington got laid 6 times today behind that line. Dunn was getting 2.5 ypc. The receivers still dropped passes and caused picks (I'm looking at you Jenkins).

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

wow never mind about atl. We still should be able to run the ball hopefully. I meant joey harrington wouldn't be a step down from vick but maybe i underestimated joey's badness.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

To be fair, Minnesota was the best team against the run last year, so that certainly factored into it. Also, plz to be using Norwood more.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

I dont get this, were you not allowed to pick San Fran, Arizona or Tampa Bay? Basically locks for this...

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont get this, were you not allowed to pick San Fran, Arizona or Tampa Bay? Basically locks for this...

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone in the nfc west is like a 20% shot to win the division.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Houston scaring anyone?

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Yeah i was about to come on and ask the same question. The season is FAAAAAAAAAR too young to be talking, but i have nothing better to do so...

Cleveland 7

They have a shot, maybe? Cincy's defense sucks butt, but anytime you can score 50 points you have a possibility to do well. Still very unlikely, but they maybe have a slim shot.

Oakland 7
meh, still bad. probably very safe.

Houston 5
Should be scaring people... 2-0 this could be the LOLTRICKEDU of this year.

Atlanta 5
Last time i pick the hometown team as my sleeper. You are safe with this one. 0-2 does not equal playoffs

Buffalo 5
You are safe with this one. 0-2 does not equal playoffs

Miami 4
Lost 13-16 only game so far. probably pretty safe.

Tennessee 3
1-1, not out of it yet.

Detroit 2
1-0, not out of it yet. still much more likely to miss than make obv.

Kansas City 2
Lost 20-3, is 0-1. Looks pretty safe, although flukes happen.

Green Bay 1
LOL 2-0 and a nice win today. looks like they may very possibly make the playoffs.

New York Giants 1
0-2, looks pretty safe.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Also, lol at nobody choosing San Fran. I figured at least a couple people would, but they are 2-0 so good job with that one guys.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
Houston scaring anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, if you lock in Indy for the division....It's still going to be tough to beat out the 2nd place North/West teams for the 2 wildcard spots.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Houston scaring anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, if you lock in Indy for the division....It's still going to be tough to beat out the 2nd place North/West teams for the 2 wildcard spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see Hou beat Tenn or Indy first. Carolina is destined to go 8-8 every year I think. At Cleve and TB no longer look like layups today. They have to finish behind no more than 1 of Denv, Jax, Tenn, Cinci, Balt, assuming the teams in front of them win the division.
Matt Schaub [who I like] and Ahman Green still have a lot to prove, like being healthy for 16 games.
Heck, even Bobby Hoying went undefeated in his first 3 starts for the Eagles 10 years ago. How do you think that team did?

Lions make me nervous.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Its not just the fact that they're 2-0. Its the way they've won those games.

NajdorfDefense, lets take a look at those teams you listed:

Denver: 2 very narrow wins over 2 below average teams

Jax: Got run all over by Tenn, barely beat Atl at home...this team lost their last 3 games last year and I have no clue why people think they are good

Tenn: Can't really blame them for losing to Indy, but it is a home loss nevertheless

Cincy: Defense anyone? They have destroyed Balt in recent history, so I wouldn't get too excited about that win.

Balt: Bad bad offensive showing in week 1. 7 point win over a below average team in week 2.




Contrast that to Houston. They've given up 12 points per game(and 7 of those points today were in complete garbage time: up 34-14 with 4 minutes in the game) and scored 27 in their two games. Kansas City only lost by 10 at Chicago, yet Houston beat them by 17. Schaub has 450 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT and has completed over 70% of his passes. His QB rating is over 100. Andre Johnson is making a legit claim as the best WR in the league with 14 catches for 260 yards and 3 TDs in his first two games. Green is looking very solid with just under 150 yards and 2 TDs. They have last year's DROY and Mario Williams really had a break out game in week 1.

They have been very disciplined and smart. It was extremely impressive to me how they responded today on the road and down 14-0 against a solid team.

This team will win at least 10 games imo and make the playoffs barring any huge injuries.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Pls make me the line on Hous to win at least 10 games. Tkx.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Hou's remaining schedule
Indy (won that one last year)
at Atlanta (favorite)
Miami (should be favorite)
at Jax (swept them last year)
Ten (ugh)
at SD (prob loss)
at Oak (winnable)
bye
NO (winnable as bad as NO's looked so far)
at Cle (winnable)
at Ten (prob loss)
TB (winnable)
Denver (is Elam going to have to kick game winning FG's every game)
at Ind (prob loss)
Jax (swept them last year)

10 games isn't really far fetched given that schedule.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pls make me the line on Hous to win at least 10 games. Tkx.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the NF-freaking-L, all games are winnable.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Assani,

Please keep your football musings to SE. After the debacle last year and then ridiculous statements like "This terrible team will go for 10+ wins."

Even monies?

wheatrich,

Is that even analysis? I've taken more knowledgeable dumps.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Thremp...ssshhhh! I bet I can get +150 on Hou not to win 10 games. Keep it on the QT.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland 7
Oakland 7
Houston 5
Atlanta 5
Buffalo 5
Miami 4
Tennessee 3
Detroit 2
Kansas City 2
Green Bay 1
New York Giants 1

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the teams I would be worried about still. And by "worry about" I mean omahahaha is already screwed.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Houston I worry about.

Det less so since a team with 1 TD in 8 Qs scored 6 in a half on them. With a broken-down QB.

The other - Miami, Cleve, Oak, ATL, I feel safe on. Famous last words.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland 7
Oakland 7
Houston 5
Atlanta 5
Buffalo 5
Miami 4
Tennessee 3
Detroit 2
Kansas City 2
Green Bay 1
New York Giants 1

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the teams I would be worried about still. And by "worry about" I mean omahahaha is already screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

tennesee and houston might have a chance individually, but almost nil chance to both make it

in fact the more competitive they're, the less chance of either of them making it.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

kdog made a great selection of teams.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland 7
Oakland 7
Houston 5
Atlanta 5
Buffalo 5
Miami 4
Tennessee 3
Detroit 2
Kansas City 2
Green Bay 1
New York Giants 1

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the teams I would be worried about still. And by "worry about" I mean omahahaha is already screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

tennesee and houston might have a chance individually, but almost nil chance to both make it

in fact the more competitive they're, the less chance of either of them making it.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. And I"m very upset that Jacksonville won this past week. Them being bad helps me greatly.


Also random thought: If Janikowski makes that overtime FG at Denver, Oakland would be in first place right now....crazy to think that. I honestly think they can win that division with a 9-7 record.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

This is a neat idea, Assani. I wonder which 6 teams I would have picked at the beginning of the year. I think the Bucs would be one of them, and they are playing well right now.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]

I know it's too late now but I'd have probably gone all-AFC - Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Titans, Browns &amp; Raiders.


[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thinking as well. I would have probably had 5 AFC teams and the Bucs. The Bucs probably would have screwed me.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Cleveland 7
1-2, and not really a threat. good teams in the division they are in.

Oakland 7
1-2, but in a division with teams that suck. Still a very small chance they could pull a miracle. But probably safe.

Houston 5
2-1. Very unlikely they win the division (which has 3-0, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 teams), but still have a great shot at a wild card. houston making it would make assani +$ for this year by themselves.

Atlanta 5
Last time i pick the hometown team as my sleeper. You are safe with this one. 0-3 does not equal playoffs

Buffalo 5
You are safe with this one. 0-3 does not equal playoffs

Miami 4
You are safe with this one. 0-3 does not equal playoffs

Tennessee 3
2-1, not out of it yet. Good chance to get a wild card bid if they play well.

Detroit 2
2-1, healthy chance. I don't think they will beat GB for the division, but have a good chance at a wild card.

Kansas City 2
1-2, in an awful division. along with oakland they have the teeniest of chances to make it based on weak division.

Green Bay 1
LOL 3-0 UR screwed.

New York Giants 1
1-2, in a good division. Probably a safe pick, they are on an awesome suck-streak dating back to last year.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

And now for the more exciting part, who's already screwed and who might win.

Omahahahaha - Raped by GB, GG. solid picks otherwise.
$200

Miami
Cleveland
Oakland
Green Bay
New York Giants
Kansas City


Kdog - only sweating detriot pretty much.
$250

Atlanta
Buffalo
Cleveland
Detroit
Miami
Oakland


NajdorfDefense - sweating houston and detriot. other four are locks or close to locks.
$400

Miami
Houston
Oakland
Cleveland
Atlanta
Detroit


Lpmatt - sweating houston and tennessee
$200

Cleveland
Houston
Buffalo
Atlanta
Oakland
Tennessee


Methodz - sweating houston and tennessee
$200

Cleveland
Houston
Oakland
Tennessee
Buffalo
Atlanta


trixtrix - sweating houston and tennessee
$2000

Buffalo
Cleveland
Houston
Tennessee
Kansas City
Oakland


Amerzel - sweating houston only.
$400

Atlanta
Miami
Oakland
Buffalo
Cleveland
Houston


So, assuming Green Bay makes the playoffs, what else happens?

If houston makes it, a.fisher goes 6-1.
If tennessee makes it, a.fisher goes 4-3.
If detroit makes it, a.fisher goes 3-4.

congrats to k-dog and amerzel on solid picks, who look to have the best shot right now.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Thanks for the detailed analysis.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Houston losing hurts, but damn I love both of the teams that everyone took winning and all of their division rivals losing. Cleveland and Oakland now both 2-2!

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

No matter how many times I'm supposed to be 'sweating' Houston, I am not sweating Houston even one drop.

Det as I've always indicated is what worries me. GG Griese!

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Yeah I'm a little surprised you picked Det. NFC sucks, but anyone with a power-house on one side of the ball can back into the playoffs.

- C -

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

Well, I correctly thought GB would be better than last year, and Minny would still have a very good D, was incorrect in thinking Bears would not totally suck. Teams will adjust to DET and Chi will improve at some point.

But, if PHL can score 56 on them, other teams can score on them. And I still think Martz will get Kitna killed back there, see Green, Trent and Warner, Kurt for details. Just a question of when.

edit: note DET is +3.5 v Was.

Re: 6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland 7
1-2, and not really a threat. good teams in the division they are in.

Oakland 7
1-2, but in a division with teams that suck. Still a very small chance they could pull a miracle. But probably safe.

Houston 5
2-1. Very unlikely they win the division (which has 3-0, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 teams), but still have a great shot at a wild card. houston making it would make assani +$ for this year by themselves.

Atlanta 5
Last time i pick the hometown team as my sleeper. You are safe with this one. 0-3 does not equal playoffs

Buffalo 5
You are safe with this one. 0-3 does not equal playoffs

Miami 4
You are safe with this one. 0-3 does not equal playoffs

Tennessee 3
2-1, not out of it yet. Good chance to get a wild card bid if they play well.

Detroit 2
2-1, healthy chance. I don't think they will beat GB for the division, but have a good chance at a wild card.

Kansas City 2
1-2, in an awful division. along with oakland they have the teeniest of chances to make it based on weak division.

Green Bay 1
LOL 3-0 UR screwed.

New York Giants 1
1-2, in a good division. Probably a safe pick, they are on an awesome suck-streak dating back to last year.

[/ QUOTE ]


Holy crap...I just realize this:


The only loss for ANY OF THESE TEAMS this past week was in games they played against one another.