Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

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Here are the dynamics:
There is a must move game that just broke and an asian father and son get moved to our table. I have never played with either one. Coincidentally, they are seated next to one another...Another player at the tables pulls me aside and says they always sit next to each other every time they play and he suspects them of cheating. Villain is the son and is sitting with close to 8k, my stack is roughly 7k. On to the hand..Villain open limps for 10 folded around to me and i raise 3c3s to 50 on button SB folds BB(father) folds villain calls. Flop comes 10d5c3d villain checks i fire 75 he thinks briefly announces raise and makes it 250. I call. Turn brings a 2s he insta fires 600 into the pot. I call. River 9c he goes all in...Villain??????? I played my hand like a draw, the diamonds didnt get there. I've completely underrepped the strength of my hand also. Anyway I took about 10 minutes before making my decision. I wanted to take as long as possible to see if i could get any physical tells. I asked villain multiple questions and he didnt respond to one while he sat there in a concrete pose not moving a muscle the whole time. Would villain possibly play a set of 10s or 5s this way? is a hand like 64s in his limping range? What does he put me on? Does he think my hand is strong enough to make a hero call on the river? Does he think my draw missed so hes shoving expecting me to muck? Is villain capable of making a bluff here? His father sits there staring at my chips while im taking my time to make my decision...What does everyone think? my river call would be close to 600bbs. Clear fold?

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I fold and here is why.

1) With stacks this deep, I don't see any way that you can rule out suited one-gappers. 4-6 is a very real possibility.

2) I see absolutely no point to your preflop raise with stacks this deep. I think that there is merit in limp fishing a broad range of starting hands when stacks are really deep, but whatever.

3) I don't know why you think your hand looks more like a draw than a set. I think it looks like 33 or 55. In any case, if I were the Villain, I would assume that TT is the nuts here, because your hand doesn't look anything like 4-6.

4) I think that this is a bigger set, 4-6 or air 95% of the time. I guess that Villain could have T9 here, but what a dumb way to play it, especially if you are first to act and you think that your opponent has a busted draw on the river.

5) As you pointed out, Villain's play makes no sense if he puts you squarely on a busted draw. If he puts you on busted draw or a set , however, his play has a lot of merit if he has 4-6 or TT. I guess he could put you on an overpair, which could change the equation.

6) Why do we think that Villain is bluffing here. He probably has no need to bluff (and certainly no need to bluff this large) if he thinks that you have a missed draw. If he thinks that you have 33 or 55, and he has air, would this look like a good spot for a bluff? Probably not. Even if you are capable of laying down 33 or 55 here, many people are not, which makes it a poor spot from which to bluff against an unknown.

This hand perfectly illustrates why the value of low pairs as starting hands looks like a bell curve (i.e. not worth much with 20BB stacks, peaking in value at 200BB stacks, and going back down when stacks are super deep). Put another way, it's tough to win 700BBs with 33 unless your opponent is truly retarded. This has to be even more true live (because reloading may be more difficult) than online.

One other thing -- I don't know exactly how the father and son typically "cheat" together, but one assumes that they juice pots for each other. FWIW, that's not happening here.

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I agree with your logic except for how you think small pp's lose value. I think large pp's lose value when stacks get deeper and small pp's value increase bc you have better implied odds to set mine vs a big stack.

I raised the button with my small pair because 1) I want to punish the UTG limp 2) Limping pp's late with only one limper imo is too weak especially if you can play post flop w/o flopping set. 3) I want to build a pot in case I do hit a perfect flop.

Thoughts?

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

One other thing -- I don't know exactly how the father and son typically "cheat" together, but one assumes that they juice pots for each other. FWIW, that's not happening here.

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My friend that pulled me aside said that they're always sitting right next to each other every time they play. He assumes they flash eachother their hole cards and said they speak their native language to one another during a hand. This is against the rules at foxwoods but the floor nor the dealers care about anything that goes on in that place so you can get away with anything.

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

So the azn guy magically quadrupled the initial max buyin in an orbit or 2--or possibly by adding chips/$ to his stack erroneously without you noticing? so FOS.
i call BS on this entire post.

OP also likes to impersonate Prahlad on FTP for some reason.
See:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post11502872

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

call man, hope he has aces

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

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So the azn guy magically quadrupled the initial max buyin in an orbit or 2--or possibly by adding chips/$ to his stack erroneously without you noticing? so FOS.
i call BS on this entire post.


OP also likes to impersonate Prahlad on FTP for some reason.
See:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post11502872

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You're a complete idiot. Villain had been playing in the must move games before he got transferred over to the main game where were playing. Also, multiple friends use my online accounts as I normally play live poker. I never impersonated Prahlad Friedman.

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

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I agree with your logic except for how you think small pp's lose value. I think large pp's lose value when stacks get deeper and small pp's value increase bc you have better implied odds to set mine vs a big stack.

I raised the button with my small pair because 1) I want to punish the UTG limp 2) Limping pp's late with only one limper imo is too weak especially if you can play post flop w/o flopping set. 3) I want to build a pot in case I do hit a perfect flop.

Thoughts?

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All pocket pairs lose starting value when stacks get really deep. They mostly lose value to hands that more easily make the nuts. In addition, preflop play diminishes in importance overall.

The difference is that, the shallower the stacks, the more big pocket pairs peak in value compared to other starting hands. Small pocket pairs peak in comparative value when stacks are a little deeper, but not super deep.

It must be the case that small pockets are less valuable at 700 BBs than they are at 200BBs.

The problem with your logic is that you hit a perfect flop, and you still weren't comfortable getting it all in. In that situation, I don't see why you want to juice the pot.

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

I don't play high enough to give comments on this hand, but I read the OP and thought to myself "wow, tough spot." Then I saw the first reply and picture of Matusow and I literally spit my drink into the monitor.

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

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This is tough without history.

He is really trying to rep a missed draw.

What does he know about you? Has he been able to tell you're a young gun who knows what he's doing?

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We know nothing about eachother, all he knows is that im up over 5k for the session since the max buy-in is 2k. So I'm assuming he thinks I'm good. Him and his father literally just sat down less than an orbit ago.

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how do they have 8k

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I'm assuming he's up 6k . You can never trust a cheater though, he probably added to his stack when he was getting transferred over so he can have the table covered. I've seen some scumbags do this. It's very unethical in capped buy in games.

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i disagree slightly here. it is unethical, but i do it all the time. games are capped to prevent brad booth types sitting in smaller games and pissing players off with constant all in bets. but, if you only add enough chips to get relatively close to the big stack at the table, there is nothing wrong with this.

as for you hand, this is really hard. against 90 percent of live players i would fold this, but this is a young asian kid that is most likely BR'd by his dad. i think that i would have to muck this simply because if this young asian kid is is this laggy, you eventually will find a better spot against him in the next couple of hours, even if you do have him crushed in this hand. but i would have no problem with a call either.

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

If it's my asian friend Rob who always goes with his dad and loves to limp PF, he has AT here lol

Re: Tough river decision with bottom set..5/10 NL @ foxwoods
 

Easy call Armen.

I used to play that game all the time, and against the type of player you describe, I wouldn't even hestitate on the call. Against a regular, say like Dave, you fold. If you can't call (let alone raise the turn which you made the mistake of not doing) you're not bankrolled deep enough to play that game.

I'm guessing his range at AA, KK, (low likelyhood) QQ, JJ, AT, T9, missed big flush draw (most likely), or TT, 55, 6d4d (low likelyhood because it makes no sense to push the river if he wants a call). My sense is that he's been trying to take the play away from you the whole hand and either A) doesn't want a call on the river, or B) made two pair on the river and wants you to call his overbet with AA or KK.