SnG (3$) - KJo
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (3 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t5610)
SB (t7935)
Hero (t6455)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t3600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t2400.

Flop: (t6000) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button bets [t1960] , Hero folds.

Final Pot: t6000
------------------------------------------------

Hi all.

Background:
SB is something passive, but he has played also some junk.
BB was passive, then he started to bully around. He has shown some good, an some questionable hands.
I was something conservativ on the beginning and then turned aggressiv (was small-stake and had to move all-in few times). As far as this hand, i should have established an aggressive but selective image.

Here are my questens:
a) Fold or Push Pre-Flop?
b) As played: push on the Flop?
c) Or is this line Ok: because i still in the tournament if i miss the flop completly.

Re: SnG (3$) - KJo
 

With blinds as they are and KJ being strong push pre-flop. When blinds get this high you can either push or fold.

On the flop consider:

-Your pot odds are about 4 to 1
-You may already be winning (small chance)
-Your chances of improving are more than your pot odds and if you improve you will probably win

I'd call.

Re: SnG (3$) - KJo
 

Yes.
So I've done some math's with ICM (http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php).


There are 3 options
-------------------
a) fold PrF
b) call PrF and fold PoF ui or push if improved
c) call PrF and push flop
d) push PrF


@b: I think there will be about 37% (0,36745=6/50+6/49+6/48) a K or a J on the flop (as long as they are alive; in the worst case - SB folded KJ, Villain holds something line AK, AJ, and the burned card is a K/J - I'll have about 12% to hit K/J).
There are also possibilities of straights and so on. So, on average there should be a push about 25% of the time and i should win this about 50% of the time, what means 12,5% of winning on average.
Lets say Villain calls about 80% of the time.

@c: It's close to b, but i'll give me here a 10% fold-equ. and about 15% to win on average (because i push allways, even if i miss the flop completly).

@d: I can win if Villain folds and lose or win on the showdown. I think Villain will raise here with a wide range of hands, but only calls an all-in with strong ones, maybe with about 9% (88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo) of all starting hands - what means I'm about a 35:65 underdog.
Lets say he will call me preflop for about 75%.


Chipstacks after move
---------------------
a) Hero(5255), Villain(6810), SB(7935)
b) Hero(0)|(2855)|(10055)|(12065), Villain(12065)|(9210)|(2010)|(0), SB(7935)
c) Hero(0)|12065), Villain(12065)|(0), SB(7935)
d) Hero(0)|10055)|(12065), Villain(12065)|(2010)|(0), SB(7935)


EV(ICM)
-------
a) 0.3097
b) 0.2798 (=75%*0.2644+25%*{20%*0.3895+80%*[50%*0.2+50%*0.4206]})
c) 0.2526 (=15%*.3895+85%*{15%*0.4206+85%*0.2})
d) 0.3052 (=25%*0.3895+75%*{35%*0.4206+65%*0.2})


Conclusion
----------
The EV of folding and pushing is very close. The difference depends on the fold-equ. and Villains handrange.
If we give Villain no chance to fold preflop, then it only depends on his handrange, what means in this case that folding has more value (countig with 35:65 underdog).


Question
--------
Do you think my assumptions are ok?