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-   -   5 CD 5/10 limit (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=525853)

Seb86 10-18-2007 02:22 PM

5 CD 5/10 limit
 
I just sat down at the table, very first hand.

I know ROLLED is a strong player and flat call in that spot anything from tens up to 999.


I have no usefull read on the 2 others.

I am not sure if there are a lot of people who play limit 5 CD here (at least BBQ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but any help would be appreciated.


PokerStars Game #12701216767: 5 Card Draw Limit ($5/$10) - 2007/10/18 - 14:09:23 (ET)
Table 'Eurynome II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: tonyspain ($115 in chips)
Seat 2: ChesterKid ($191 in chips)
Seat 3: glebbus ($240.50 in chips)
Seat 4: ROLLEDDD ($121.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Pokerplatte ($223 in chips)
Seat 6: Seb86 ($200 in chips)
Pokerplatte: posts small blind $2
Seb86: posts big blind $5
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to Seb86 [9c 4h Ks 9h Kc]
tonyspain: raises $5 to $10
ChesterKid: raises $5 to $15
glebbus: folds
ROLLEDDD: calls $15
Pokerplatte: folds
Seb86: ???

bigpooch 10-18-2007 05:47 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
Looks like an easy fold from the BB:

1) I think ROLLEDD's range is higher. Do you really think
he will cold call three bets with even jacks up in this
spot?

2) You don't close the action; there is a small chance that
the opener will cap it.

3) You are getting only about 5-1 (at best), so you need a
reasonable chance that you are best predraw, but I don't
think you have the best hand predraw even 5% of the time
given the action and when you do have the best hand, you
might get outdrawn as much as almost 40% of the time (the
opener might have AA).

Even if you had a hand like AA99, you should strongly
consider folding; after all, what are the likely ranges of
the opener, raiser and ROLLEDD given that you already have
two aces in your hand?

Some of the draw players misevaluate medium two pairs to
aces up in similar spots as well: e.g., in a $5-10 hand I
played awhile ago, I three-bet an EP raiser with aces-up
and saw both blinds cold call in a four-way pot, but none
of the blinds had a "legitimate" hand (MHIG).

BBQbowser 10-18-2007 06:44 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
This is a simple range/equity question. I'm going to assume this game is not overly aggressive. Go through every opponent who has VPIP and you will find you are behind.

unknown UTG (tonyspain) - 85% chance of two pair or better, 15% AA. That's if we assume he even plays AA upfront, many do not. You are ahead of approx 63% of his range.

unknown hijack (ChesterKid) - A rough range may be Qs up or better ? If we agree on that you are behind approx 80% of this.

KNOWN opponent :P (ROLLEDDD) - I'm giving him a very precise range, 222-TTT excluding the unlikely 444 and 999 because you have these ranks in your hand. This is a mistake not capping this but that's for another thread.

You are being offered 4.7 to 1 which is just not enough.
The following are factors to consider for this particular hand and those similar:

1) Odds to make KKK or better, yes Ks up must be broken. Around 7.75 to 1.

2) Implied odds, which aren't even great at a fairly passive 5/10.

3) Opponents odds to improve to a hand even bigger than KKK
-UTG : AAA (7.75 to 1) or boat (11.5 to 1)
-Hij : boat (11.5 to 1)
-Btn : trips, ROLLEDDD will draw 2 (9 to 1?)

I want at least 7.5 to 1 to play this. You won't even get a lot of value out of KKK either if you make it, anytime more one than one bet is put in post draw by your opponent post there's a decent chance you will be behind.

Seb86 10-18-2007 09:27 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
oh yeah actually breaking kings up makes senses, I never though of that.

So if it were raised and flat call by 2 people you would have called and draw discard 994 ?

I folded and the UTG raised showed KK66 and won vs 3322 for UTG+1 and jacks or quenns up for ROLLEDDD.

I still believe it was a must fold, but your idea of breaking Kings up is excellent

BBQbowser 10-18-2007 09:37 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
.

Seb86 10-18-2007 09:39 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
I cant say 100% sure but KK66 won so he didnt have trips or better 2 pairs

bigpooch 10-18-2007 09:57 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
The only kind of hand that makes sense for ROLLEDD to have
that isn't something legitimate like queens up or better is
an open ended straight flush draw. Also, for him to call
cold in this spot with queens up or jacks up, he might know
a little about the hijack's reraising range.

Seb86 10-18-2007 11:56 PM

Re: 5 CD 5/10 limit
 
had had quenns up


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