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Villain is 13/2/2.4 AF

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

I don't think he'd limp utg J7 pf with his stats. So i was thinking a set of 3s, 7s or even Js, but it could also be a hand like AJ, KJ, AQ/T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I dunno, i just called down.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Bad river, dead against AJ.
Just felt pretty lost in this hand the whole time.

Cap the flop. If the villain is UTG, AJ is quite likely. SB is likely taking a shot at the pot with a 3 or a 7, hoping to take it down.

Another line you could take, is c/r the turn and call a 3-bet, that's also a good number of bets to put in.

River call is fine, as there's a decent chance he just 2 paired up.

cappity-cap the flop, ya pussy. did you notice that you have the entire field trapped and can't be reraised?

hand plays different from there.

Cap the flop and lead the turn. If the villain raises the turn I think you can get away from this hand. The river is the worst because now the other player in may have just hit a better two pair.

utg has 77 most of the time and 33 almost the rest of the time, with random stuff or aj or superdraws like the remaining few percent. i don't see a great way to play this but i don't cap the flop. what do we have positive equity against? 73 and we're neutral against flush draws and most turn/river combos are gross and we've built such a huge pot that we're forced to call down. maybe i'd cap the flop only if i could fold the turn given certain action patterns. flop b3b in that game was almost always a set.

a stronglooking hand has to be reconsidered given opponents, stats, reads, board texture, etc...

[ QUOTE ]
cappity-cap the flop, ya pussy. did you notice that you have the entire field trapped and can't be reraised?

hand plays different from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I know there's only 5 combos of sets, and his AF is very high, but given the 2 pfr/13 vpip I think we have to discount most other hands.

I would think his range is heavily weighted towards hands against which we have few, if any, outs.

I'm with Riku in that I just want to get to SD cheaply here.

I don't think you are going to win this one, but not sure how to play it either.

As you have 2 others in the pot who seem tied to a draw surely there is some merit in betting/ raising the turn even though you think you are probably not going to win?

Agree you are dead when the river hits.

[ QUOTE ]
his AF is very high,

[/ QUOTE ]

no it's not, there is a good thread on how AF is relative, and a good way to look at it is to multiply AF by VPIP and use that to gauge aggressiveness, usually compared to yours as a starting point. So if you are 20/10/2 your base is 40, this guy is 13 * 2.4 = 31.2 less aggro than you. People will often mistakenly call a 40/9/1.0 villain passive, when in fact he is as aggro as a 20/10/2 villain.

Given villain's VPIP of 13 it does not seem likely he's playing 33 or even 77 UTG, but that is where reads help, he may be low VPIP but plays any pair from any where. JJ is not out of the realm of possibility here, he could easily limp that UTG for fear of raising out the field that is aware of his low PFR, I see this a lot from low PFR villains at 1-2 FTP.

[ QUOTE ]
Cap the flop and lead the turn. If the villain raises the turn I think you can get away from this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe there is any "getting away from this hand" on the turn scenario.

Getting to the river cheaply is ok, but folding is not.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

*grunch*

I’d cap this flop. He limped from UTG, so he could have pocket 3s or 7s, but his most likely holding IMO is AJ, which we beat.
And as the flop capper, I’m leading the turn.
If he raises the turn, THEN am I really putting him on 3s or 7s (not Js, even with his tight PFR-stats, that’s still a raising hand), but still calling to see the river since we have boat outs.
Crying call on the river.