I BLUFF YOU
 

7.50/15 hand from awhile ago. Playing 8 handed.

Villain in this hand is a nl player. LAG in position, TAG OOP. Good 3 bet or fold style preflop. Plays too loose imo.

Some history: A short while ago I decided I wasnt getting enough action on my hands and had raised it up preflop in MP with J9s. The BB defended, the flop was all rags, and I rivered a J after firing 2 barrels (I fired the 3rd obv) and BB mucked after seeing my hand. Villain may now be aware that I'm not a PF nit.

So fast forward to this hand. I fold some more then pick up AQs UTG. I raise, and it folds to him OTB. He 3 bets, blinds fold, I call (i think i should have 4 bet fwiw).

Flop is KK7, one of my suit. I c/c.

Turn 7, giving me a flush draw. I c/r.

things to consider: what is villain's range? of that range, how much do you think I can fold out? can i fold to a 3 bet?

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

I'm not sure I like this. If you really had a king, he would expect you to have check raised the flop, right?

I don't see QQ-99 folding.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

I'm glad you posted this hand because I have trouble playing hands like this: specifically playing fl draws hu on the turn with double paired boards. I think your play puts a lot of pressure on otb. The question I have is what to do if I'm otb. Besides the obvious AK or AA type hands, what am I raising, calling or folding here?

I also apologize if it appears that I'm hijacking the thread. I really don't mean to do so.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

If he's playing LAG, and has seen you bluffing I don't think he's folding any pair 88+ or even A high. I guess to me the answer depends on whether or not he's a thinking player. Your play can look an awful lot like a slowplayed AKo to a thinking player,in which case I like it, because he will fold some hands that beat you.Otherwise, he's only going to look you up with hands beat yours/ or split if you don't hit your flush on the river.
Either way I would fold to a 3 bet.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

It is doubtful that a LAG will fold a better hand or any Ace. Also, some LAGs are capable of 3-betting with an Ace here.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is doubtful that a LAG will fold a better hand or any Ace. Also, some LAGs are capable of 3-betting with an Ace here.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point about the LAG nature of the opponent.

let me ask you another question then: if you were villain, how effective would this bluff be? (and I ask the whole forum this as well)

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

If he's really a lag, I don't like this play. He really could 3-bet you with a hand you have like 11 outs against, and I think you'd have to fold. What if he 3-bets you with QQ and you fold? That's a freaking disaster.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

If you want to bluff b/3b...
really.

Edit: I'd never fold A high here to a TAG's c/r.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

Interesting spot. Obviously the board is very scarey, probably for both of you.

I think this NL Laggy dude is the wrong player to make this play against. I do think there is a decent chance that he folds to the checkraise. But I also think there is a decent chance that he decided to re-bluff you. I have seen a young, NL player in a 4/8 LHE game go crazy with 44 on a KKxA board, putting in 4 bets. They like to bluff, and they think its really cheap to bluff in limit.

Against this NL player, I think calling down ui is the answer. Sure, you will probably lose to 88-QQ or AK most of the time. But he will have 44-66 or AT-AJ enough to be a profitable calldown.

The chance that he rebluffs is just to great to check-raise-fold here.

But I love this checkraise with FD on double-paired board against a regular limit player who is trying to play well. I have done this exact move against a just such a guy and he showed me JJ as he folded. No one bluffs in these spots in loose-passive live SSLHE, so they are willing to fold. But this NL guy probably doesn't realize that no one bluffs here.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

I'm grunching here, and my first reaction is that you can't fold to a three bet. I think that makes the c/r a bad idea unless you're folding a bunch of his range.

He probably isn't folding a pair here. At least I wouldn't.

EDIT: I read the replies, and if I had 88+ or an Ace in my hand this would work on my about never. Against a Tag that is. I actually found myself in a similar spot last night against a TAG. Board was QQ55 and I had 99. He c/r, I three bet, he lays down. So not only will it not work on me but I'm three barreling you.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

[ QUOTE ]
(i think i should have 4 bet fwiw).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had 4-bet pf it would probably be a little easier to sell this semi-bluff. If I were the villain, I know that a TAG will very often 4-bet JJ+,AK, and maybe more. Here I would mainly be worried about KQ,TT-88, with 88,KQo not in every TAG's opening range UTG.

As the hand was played, Villain has effective odds of over 4:1 to call this down. If I were the villain in this hand, I would not lay down any Ace or PP 77+.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

you're all missing the point.

kit should check/call down when that turn card comes and it's not close.

villain is a NL player. they love reraising a few types of hands pf when they're laggin it up with position: suited connectors(67s, 86s, 9Ts, JTs etc.), pp's(i've seen as low as 22+. the number of strong pp combos given this board are pretty limited. first, we hold an AQ so that limits the combos of AA and QQ. he rarely has KK, since two of them are accounted for and the same goes for 77. there are some connector hands that hit here, but most of them DON'T. so pp's that beat us are 88, 99, TT, JJ most often. but we beat 44, 55, and 66, so that's close to a wash. given the pot size and the fact that he gets so lag with position i'm at least calling down and let him keep firing with his JT or whatever.

when you "bluff" checkraise this turn, it's not purely a bluff because some significant amount of the time i'm pretty sure you have the best hand.

Re: I BLUFF YOU
 

i'm not bluffing, i'm letting him bluff

c/c