TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

this is like my 1st or 2nd orbit, villain is 60/10/3 over 20 hands that i datamined before i sat (so pretty insignificant)...

Pacific Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.5/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100
UTG+1: $197.83
CO: $70.19
Button: $204.74
SB: $165.18
Hero: $100.88

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $5</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $16</font>, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($31.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $44</font>, Hero....?

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

Situation sucks here, obv stats are fairly insignificant other than the fact that the villain is probably fairly loose.

It's pretty much shove/fold, and I could go either way

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

What hands are you expecting a call from on this flop and that aren't already messing you up? C/c this flop. You have a gutter and a back door nut draw. See what develops on the turn before committing a bunch of chips.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

With this range, a shove doesn't look too bad.

Board: Jh Tc Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.206% 43.37% 04.84% 36924 4119.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 51.794% 46.96% 04.84% 39978 4119.00 { AA, JJ-TT, A2s+, KQs, JTs, 98s, ATo+, KQo, JTo, 98o }

I Didn't notice how few hands the sample was over

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

60/10/3... shove.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hands are you expecting a call from on this flop and that aren't already messing you up? C/c this flop. You have a gutter and a back door nut draw. See what develops on the turn before committing a bunch of chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we call the flop, we've comitted almost 2/3rds of our stack. Can we really fold for 40 more, button is playing 200 bb's deep, but hero just has standard 100bb stack??

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
60/10/3... shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

I've been shown so many garbage aces in this spot against these guys. Typically they just call down but he's probably "protecting" his A8 since it is a drawy board. Even if he has AT/AJ you're not in that bad of shape.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been shown so many garbage aces in this spot against these guys. Typically they just call down but he's probably "protecting" his A8 since it is a drawy board. Even if he has AT/AJ you're not in that bad of shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he shows you he has AT or AJ a push is +EV!

We only need 31% equity against his range if he calls an all-in 100% of the time.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

I think given the villain, who's going to have a wider range than avg, probably correct to shove here.

Not that I like doing it too much.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

Guys it's 20 hands lets not get carried away here. I'd probably call the minraise but it seems pretty spewy to do so.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think given the villain, who's going to have a wider range than avg, probably correct to shove here.

Not that I like doing it too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take it you didn't read my post about just needing 31% equity for a shove to be EV neutral?

Hand 0: 31.087% 21.75% 09.33% 7107 3049.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 68.913% 59.58% 09.33% 19465 3049.00 { AA, JJ-TT, ATs+, ATo+ }


That's the worst case scenario and shoving is EV neutral vs. that, factor in that he's sometimes bluffing and sometimes has an even worse hand makes this a pretty clear shove.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

Worm75,

We are only committing 2/3 of our stack because we led in the first place. My post said not to lead.

As played, fold unless you feel like gambling it up. Can't fault you if you do given manipulated equity but if you are prone to tilt after poor play (especially if you don't recognize it and blame it on coolers and such) then I recommend you fold and shut down all tables till you realize why this is so...

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

I think he has random aces enough to make this a push. It seems I tend to fold here a lot and then some donk shows me A7 to tell me "yeah I had it good fold."

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Worm75,

We are only committing 2/3 of our stack because we led in the first place. My post said not to lead.

As played, fold unless you feel like gambling it up. Can't fault you if you do given manipulated equity but if you are prone to tilt after poor play (especially if you don't recognize it and blame it on coolers and such) then I recommend you fold and shut down all tables till you realize why this is so...

[/ QUOTE ]

Aww, my bad misread post. Agreed

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
60/10/3... shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

His range is [censored] huge and includes EVERY Ace and a lot of bluffs and [censored] like one pair + gutshot. Lol @ the stove with AT+. Just lol.

You've got a strong hand and the fish wants to swim with the sharks. Just shove.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guys it's 20 hands lets not get carried away here. I'd probably call the minraise but it seems pretty spewy to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've had 20 hands where I was 0/0, 7/5, 60/40, or lots of weird stats. But my VPiP-Pfr gap never gets this wide.

The tendency: "limps way too much" is pretty crystal clear here, even after 20 hands. It's far more likely that he's a bad player than a good one. GoGo Bayes' Theorem.

Re: TP2K, 3bet pot, facing minraise
 

you re pretty pot committed i think, get it in.