NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

Nothing on Bodog yet, but I've made one bet already:

Philip Rivers NO interception in the first half at +125 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). Of all the NFL player props that I've bet, this one is among the most puzzling. In his 27 games as a starter thus far, Rivers has thrown a pick in 15 of them. And in those 15 games, his pick occurred in the second half in 6 of them. I seriously doubt that the "true" odds of Rivers throwing a first half pick is 22 percent, but one would have to think that at worst it is 50/50. For that reason alone, taking this prop at positive odds would seem to be +EV. But I can't quantify the edge to any degree of certainty, so one unit will suffice. FWIW, the Colts have picked off passes in 7 out of 8 games this season, but the picks happened in the first half in only 3 of 7. Also, the picks that happened in two games came against backups (Gradkowski and Q. Gray). Again, I doubt that Rivers is predisposed to throw an interception in the first half, or that the Colts are predisposed to intercept passes in the first half. Who knows. Like I said, +125 is good enough for me. How the yes was set at -155 is completely baffling.

Anyone want to take a stab at why the no might be a bad bet?

YTD: 25-17, +6.67 units

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

I am with you. This is a nice find. With prop bets sometimes you just find ones that are just wacko.

The one that I found that I cannot figure out is Arizona +140 to score first. Arizona is currently a 1 point favorite. I don't get it. I put a couple units on it.

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

That Rivers prop is just beautiful. I'd max it if I had an account there.

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

Where do you find 1st vs. 2nd half INTs?

He's thrown at least one INT in 7 out of 9 games this year. I don't know first vs. second half break-downs, but even if it's 60% first vs. second half, looks like you've still got a wildly profitable bet. Nice find.

- C -

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

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Where do you find 1st vs. 2nd half INTs?

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ESPN will do all sorts of splits: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...?playerId=5529

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

Kurt Warner +1 vs. Kitna. Bodog.

Detroit 30th in Pass D. Arizona 7th best in pass D. Arizona at home.

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

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Kurt Warner +1 vs. Kitna. Bodog.

Detroit 30th in Pass D. Arizona 7th best in pass D. Arizona at home.

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I dont know, Kitna is capable of massive numbers against anyone and Warner is still messed up.

I do like taking Boldin.

Roy Williams (DET)
+1 (-130)

Anquan Boldin (ARI)
-1 (-110

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

I like Lendale White -3.5 vs Fred Taylor at Bodog. Tennessee is 1st against the run and Taylor has been utilized rarely in the red zone due to Jones-Drew getting more carries. Taylor hasn't scored a TD since last December and is on pace to go < 1000 yards rushing this season.

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

Why arent the rest of the Bodog props up yet?

Re: NFL Week 10 player props thread
 

Tony Gonzalez over 75.5 yards receiving (-115 on bodog)

Denver has the worst defense in the league against opposing TE. At home this week, Gonzalez has eclipsed this mark in all four home games this year (but not once on the road). Larry Johnson is out, which will turn some KC running plays into short passes.

I usually stick to Poisson props, but this one is worth a couple of units.