Deal or No Deal
 

So there was a guy on last night with 3 suitcases left. $500,000 in one, $300 and $400 were also on the board. He opted for no deal with an offer of $167,000 on the table. I was floored, absolutely floored by how bad of a decision I thought this was. Anyone feel differently?

First time I had watched the show though and actually was extremely entertained.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I like taking the money, isn't it slightly more +ev?

blake

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

So he turned down 167K with a 1/3 chance at 500K? If this is correct I agree it was a bad move.

Swede

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

deal or no deal thread

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

The guy was black.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

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I like taking the money, isn't it slightly more +ev?

blake

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Yes but I would give up some EV for guaranteed big money, esp. when you have a 67% of walking away with basically nothing.

Although the sacrifice in EV couldn't be huge, I love the first few offers where the "deal" is like 10% of the EV.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

the game seems to be set up so that you should always pass on the deal!

his thinking probably was that he has 66% chance at picking a case that wasnt the big one.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I saw one where the woman won $5, b/c she kept going no deal (probably wisely) but then the big money got taken off the board, her offer plummeted and she had no choice but to procedd. Anyway the $5. Do you think she will report this on her taxes?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I saw one where the woman won $5, b/c she kept going no deal (probably wisely) but then the big money got taken off the board, her offer plummeted and she had no choice but to procedd. Anyway the $5. Do you think she will report this on her taxes?

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i saw that too and it was the perfect lesson about greed, considering she had her church choir in the studio! i just new God was gonna teach her a lesson. she passed up 179k

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
So he turned down 167K with a 1/3 chance at 500K? If this is correct I agree it was a bad move.

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Basically it's like they put $167k in his hands, and he opted to put $83.5k on 1-12 and $83.5k on 13-24 on a roulette table and spin the wheel.