BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

Very end of day 1. Hero is sitting on @60K which is above the 45K avg. Villain is sitting on @33K.

Blinds are 500/1000 w/100 ante
Hero is dealt AK suited in middle position and open raises to 4K. Villain on the button reraises to 14K. Blinds both fold.

What's your line?

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

Some read analysis would be helpful here - but I'll make some normalizing assumtions: 4K has been the standard table opener - nothing signaled by your opening raise; you haven't been particularly aggro/tight so your raise is being respected but doesn't necessarily imply monster given your position; likewise villian hasn't been overly aggro/tight. Given those assumptions:

14K reraise strikes me as discouraging action so prob not AA or KK - most likely range: AQ+, 99-QQ. While he has less than an avg stack his M is still fine - he shouldn't be feeling desparate.

He's only got 19K behind so he's committed unless the flop looks horrible to him and you lead out - so I think you can add his 19k into your implied odds if you hit your hand.

I call the 10k and plan to: check/fold a complete whiff, check/call his push if an A or K fall, lead out if I hit a a semi-bluff flop. If I don't put him on AA/KK then I'm getting the right price to hit my hand and the 10k call doesn't dramatically alter my chip position (the check/fold on a whiff sounds weak/tight but I don't think it is given the stack sizes). I don't like pushing here - you have no fold equity and are -EV to his range (at least where I put him). I won't argue too strongly that a fold is wrong - I think it's acceptable here.

How'd you make out in the tourney?

HC

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

I would probably have raised less to begin with, but I don't think it makes that big a difference.

If you call you're getting around 2 to 1 on your money. The
only problem with calling is you now have 25% of your stack
in the pot. You'll only flop something about a third of the time. Given that you only will lose around 7% of your stack
if you fold, I would probably let this one go. If I had
a good read that he was reraising with a less than optimal
hand I would push. I think calling is the worst possible
option.

Bruce

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

I would follow hockey coach's advice. He's got a ton of chips to just push. I would call and get aggressive if I hit my hand. Give him credit if you whiff.

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

Push. Calling and check-folding if you miss is pretty bad.

Steve

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

He's risking 25% of his stack to see a flop which he'll whiff 1/3 of the time. If he were more shortstacked or more deepstacked I would push and at least get to see all five
cards.

Bruce

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

Calling with the intention of folding a whiffed flop is far and away the worst option we have.

This is push or fold. If I had seen villain re-raise preflop more than a few times, then I'm shoving. If he's been playing quite rocky I'm folding.

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

If this guy is a loose player that will raise with a lot of hands then I would be more likely to push and see him call with a hand that we have beat. If he's tight I would like to call and play poker.

If he has done this with AJ, A10, KQ, AQ and smaller pairs then push.

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

considering this is at the end of the day, and, given that, people are much more likely to fold JJ and TT in this situation, I would stick it allin. I really think he will need QQ+ to call given the situation. Do it!

Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this guy is a loose player that will raise with a lot of hands then I would be more likely to push and see him call with a hand that we have beat. If he's tight I would like to call and play poker.

If he has done this with AJ, A10, KQ, AQ and smaller pairs then push.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no playing poker. That's the point. The pot will be 30k, he'll have 19k, he's pushing any flop and you're check-folding the best hand too often. Plus if he ever gets away from his hand (like 99-QQ) when the flop is Axx or AKx, then calling is even worse. Just shove the chips in now.

Steve