Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

Team Totals:
Dallas Over 102.5, -110
Chicago Under 96.5, -110
Sacramento Under 105, -110

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

2H Philadelphia -2.5, -110

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

Man philly is terrible.

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

Indiana/Lakers Over 102, -110

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man philly is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. No way they should be down 30 to an Arenas-less Wizards team. They have had some abysmal first halfs recently. Was is shooting lights out though.

Faint hope for a complete turnaround like the Portland game for the cover and win? Unlikely, but we'll see.

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

2H Golden State +2.5, +105
2H Golden State/New York Over 105, -105

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

llabb - would you share your record thus far this year in NBA. I'm amazed that the number of games you take ...

thx

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lakers -1.5, -110
Lakers/Indiana Under 208, -110, 1.5u
Golden State -2, -110
Dallas -9, +108
Dallas/Toronto Over 176, -110, 1.5u
Denver -7, -110, 1.5u
1H Denver -4, -115

[/ QUOTE ]

To clarify - that DAL/TOR is over 196 ...

I like that play as well. Both teams averaging > 100 pts per game - DAL 110/gm and TOR 103/gm.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sam Mitchell is my new favorite coach: his decision to start fouling with the score 98-90 with 45 seconds left is the best coaching decision of the year so far IMO.

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lakers -1.5, -110
Lakers/Indiana Under 208, -110, 1.5u
Golden State -2, -110
Dallas -9, +108
Dallas/Toronto Over 176, -110, 1.5u
Denver -7, -110, 1.5u
1H Denver -4, -115

[/ QUOTE ]

To clarify - that DAL/TOR is over 196 ...

I like that play as well. Both teams averaging > 100 pts per game - DAL 110/gm and TOR 103/gm.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sam Mitchell is my new favorite coach: his decision to start fouling with the score 98-90 with 45 seconds left is the best coaching decision of the year so far IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - I got real lucky on my over bet here... I loved that coaching decision as well.

Re: NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)
 

[ QUOTE ]
llabb - would you share your record thus far this year in NBA. I'm amazed that the number of games you take ...

thx

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I make a ton of plays, as I am comfortable betting even small edges (by my perceptions). I have posted for the last couple years here, 56% last season (06-07), 57% the previous playoffs (05-06), and 55% the previous season (05-06). Because I take a lot of games with small edges, there is greater variance with my results. I have seen fluctuations between 48% and 63% during most seasons, but it has worked out well so far.

I realize that most people would say that I take far too many plays, and perhaps I do, but it's more profitable to take the small 53% plays as well and end up averaging 57% for the season rather than sitting back with only a few plays and simply coasting to 61% on the soft lines. Many say that it is tough to beat the NBA taking tons of games, but I believe otherwise. I have seen another poster on another forum who picks every single game, both the side and the total, and is 57% over 207 games this season. I don't go quite that far yet, but I believe that it is very doable.

This season, I started off horribly for the first week, and have since adjusted, improving each week. Weekly results are:

Week 1: 12-15, -5.42u
Week 2: 17-14, +0.23u
Week 3: 13-8, +2.90u
Week 4: 13-8, +4.87u

I suffered through some early beats where the larger unit plays lost, and am now being more careful about varying my unit size. Flat betting would have been more profitable for me so far, although I believe that it is just variance on a few plays. I am starting to see 2H plays better, although I am not always around during those times. All results so far this season below.

All Sides and Totals: 55-45, +2.58u

Sides: 22-19, -1.18u
Totals: 10-10, -0.11u
1H Sides: 2-4, -2.31u
2H Sides: 8-5, +1.73u
2H Totals: 10-7, +1.45u
Team Totals: 3-0, +3.00u
Player Props: 0-2, -2.30u
Donk Teasers: 1-5, -3.85u