I Am Legend - movie betting
 

Apparently Matchbook opened a market for the upcoming "I Am Legend" movie. Some of us on here used to bet movies regularly back when a lot more sites offered lines.

This should be a big movie, but the line is already really high. A $50 million line is asking a lot, like summer blockbuster levels.

The last movie to break $50 million was way back in August, the Bourne Ultimatum. Summer blockbusters can readily break this mark, but it's really tough for a December movie not named The Lord of the Rings.

What do you guys think about this one? Anyone here going to bet this movie?

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

Movies opening on December 14th are I Am Legend, Juno, The Kite Runner, The Perfect Holiday and Alvin and the Chipmunks.

Early tracking doesn't seem to be particularly high at the moment suggesting that IAL will open to $43 million (I grabbed that number from Box office Mojo via the Hollywood Stock Exchange).

It has a kind of an I, Robot feel to it and that opened to $52.1 million back in July 2004.

Will Smith action movies generally don't appear in December but last year, The Pursuit of Happyness had a $26.5 million opening weekend.

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

This movie looks interesting, and the campain of publicity was quite big, i remember seeing preview of this at least 3 months back.

I would say it's gonna open at least at 40m.

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

Yeah, I think this movie will do well, and that somewhere in the $40's sounds good. I mean, a 40+ million dollar opening is pretty huge in Dec. It's $50m that's questionable, but that's where the line is.

If people think that $40's is likely, then there may be a play on Under 50.

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

$50 million for a Dec. opening? Without doing any research my gut just says under, way under. Beowulf had tons of marketing and got very solid reviews and only did $27. Why would Legend do twice as much?

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

Yeah, that's the question. A number of offers on Matchbook. You can even get the Under at +102 right now.

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

hey llabb hows it been?

I agree the under looks like the solid play at this time. Still too earlier for rough theatre counts right? I just don't see a vampire/zombie movie doing well in December, even with Willy Smith. $40 Mill would be an amazing opening. $50 highly unlikely unless this gets amazing reviews and screen counts.

Also why the random movie bet all of a sudden on Matchbook. I don't see any other sites offering a line on this so this confuses me a bunch.

-Brendan

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

Historically, how many movies have opened for $50M+ in December? Or even close (including inflation adjustments)?

LOTR did $66M in 2001
Two Towers did $62M in 2002
Return of the King did $72M in 2003

So it's def possible, but, the bet is essentially that I Am Legend is the new LOTR? There's basically nothing opening against it, but still, unless Matchbook has some inside info (focus groups?) this seems like a sucker's bet. Does look very suspicious - Almost a bar stool pundit type bet (everybody agrees the line is ridic and the under is a lock... and everybody gets screwed).

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

I do really enjoy how they misspelled Legend. Not as bad as some of the mistakes they have made in the past though for like 5 day lines listed as 3 day lines or something else silly.

Re: I Am Legend - movie betting
 

King Kong and Narnia also opened in Dec with a $50MM+ opening weekend (Fri-Sun). Meet the Fockers opened at $46.1 MM in Dec 2004, which at today's ticket prices would put it over $50 MM as well.

The most current estimates I've seen have this title have it doing $51.2-57.0 MM in GBO for opening weekend.

Those are revised numbers, with the the prior estimates being slightly higher. So, the numbers are trending down, but just barely.

At the momment, it looks like this is expected to go over, but not by much.