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-   -   Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=361361)

KyrosMother 04-11-2007 02:00 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
I do not get the "no lynch" tomorrow. Explain it to me.

Also, I think we are kidding oursleves if we think there is only the convertible left. Given the poll, I still think the chances of there being two evils (outside of Traz) left are very high. And if I am right - I think "no lynch" tomorrow is a very bad idea.

Zurvan 04-11-2007 02:02 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you purposely say stupid [censored] to piss me off, or can you just not help yourself?

[/ QUOTE ]

Zurvan, do you honestly think Traz was using rand to decide his nightkill? Since he wasn't we can try to get inside his head here and maybe eliminate some suspects.

[/ QUOTE ]

WHAT????!!!???

HE WAS LOOKING FOR A RANDOMLY SELECTED VANILLAGER. HE HAD NO WAY IN HELL OF DETERMINING WHO THE CORRUPTIBLE WAS.

If anything, he was guiding his kills based on a "power role" read, and avoiding those players.

KyrosMother 04-11-2007 02:02 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Which also means Jeremy just sky-rocketed up my radar as the converted...

Boiler_bd 04-11-2007 02:10 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
ok, I'll try to explain my thought process here...

Right now the game would be over if there were 3 evils left since it would be 3 good and 3 evil. So we must assume it is Traz and the convertible villager left. Sorry KM, you were wrong on me again this game...

We need to put ourselves in Traz's shoes. Who does he go after with his night kills? Ever since bram was outed and the seer hunt ended he is exclusively looking for the convertible villager. His choices were mets first and wdc second. Now there is no clues to distinguish one person from another, so IMO he has to look for the player, if converted, is most likely to avoid being lynched. He choose mets/books first off. These are vets very experienced at being a wolf and have had success. The two remaining players that fit this description are KM/Zurvan. This doesn't mean we say Jeremy/Bluff/myself cannot be evil, it just gives us a good starting point.

Ok, claimaments...
I believe no claims today, then no lynch tomarrow is the play. If we have 2 people claiming one role tomarrow that is fine. It narrows down our choices. Theoretically the power roles can prove themselves anyway. I don't think the remaining evil will claim anything other than villager.

We vote no lynch tomarrow probably. If the night kill is obvious then we may not want to (since it doesn't help), but what it does is narrows down the hiding room for the last evil, and we only have 1 lynch left anyway.

BluffBlank 04-11-2007 02:10 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I think we are kidding oursleves if we think there is only the convertible left. Given the poll, I still think the chances of there being two evils (outside of Traz) left are very high. And if I am right - I think "no lynch" tomorrow is a very bad idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with KM that no lynch is a bad idea. Even with a small chance of their being 2 evils, it would be a pretty big mistake.

Jeremy517 04-11-2007 02:12 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with KM that no lynch is a bad idea. Even with a small chance of their being 2 evils, it would be a pretty big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no chance that there is an evil besides traz and the corrupted villager. 1) Everyone was peeked by thebram 2) The game would be over right now because it would be 3-3.

BluffBlank 04-11-2007 02:14 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Right now the game would be over if there were 3 evils left since it would be 3 good and 3 evil. So we must assume it is Traz and the convertible villager left. Sorry KM, you were wrong on me again this game...

[/ QUOTE ]

that's right... maybe no lynch isn't a bad idea. I'm going to have to think about it some more.

Zurvan 04-11-2007 02:14 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Boiler: you're giving traz the wrong motivations for his night targets. He doesn't know if his corruptible villager is an easy lynch, or a hard one. All he knows is that it's a villager, not a power role. He'll be targetting among the group of people he considers villagers that aren't power roles.

All of us currently alive in this game have had little to no pressure on us. Especially the last few days. We were all unlikely to be lynched before Mark/FCBL, etc. To say that KM & I are better targets than you other 3 is beyond ridiculous.

KyrosMother 04-11-2007 02:17 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry KM, you were wrong on me again this game...


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is exactly what FMX said....

I can see the wolf chat now.

FMX: KM suspects me. Damn. Should we kill her?
Boiler: Nah...
FMX: But she suspects you too...
Boiler: She always suspects me. Ignore her....better yet, just tell her how wrong she is, that always works with her...
FMX: OK, great plan!!

Boiler_bd 04-11-2007 02:28 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
lol KM, it's mathematically impossible you realize?


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