SIA Senate Bet Info
 

For anyone interested in the details of SIA's Control of Senate bet:

The Iowa electronic market shows a 25% chance of Democrats taking the Senate. That makes SIA's 1.4:1 on Republicans a good bet.


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Chris: Hi, X. My name is Chris. How may I help you?
X: I had a question on one of your political prop bets
X: For the US Senate bet
X: if the US Senate results in a 50-50 tie
X: is the bet graded push / no action?
X: or is the Vice President's tie-breaking vote counted as being a Republican Senate?
Chris: Give me a minute to look into it..
Chris: It would go to who ever gets the position.
X: what does that mean?
Chris: If it goes to the tie breaker who ever gets it after that would be the winning bet.
X: so if the Senate is split 50-50, and the VP is a Republican, the "Republicans hold the Senate" bet would win?
Chris: Yes.
X: ok, thank you
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Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

i wonder if this sia chat rep is giving definitive info on this, or if they grade it as a push

also i cant in good consicence bet against dems to control

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

[ QUOTE ]
i wonder if this sia chat rep is giving definitive info on this, or if they grade it as a push

also i cant in good consicence bet against dems to control

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong forum,

Gag me.

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

This is a very very good bet. Dems need six seats for control. They need 6 of these 7 Montana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Tennessee, Rhode Island, and Virginia without losing NJ or MD.

If we give them RI,PA,OH, and MT where they lead they need 2 of MO,TN,VA possible but highly unlikely.

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

That representive sounded confused. I don't trust him.

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

[ QUOTE ]
That representive sounded confused. I don't trust him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would it be a push? 'Control' of the Senate is assured if Cheney is the tiebreaker, it's not 'Race to 51 seats.'

Naj

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

Tradesports has a similar bet, their language indicates a tie would be equivalent to Republican control because of Cheney.

AA

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

I checked SIA shortly after this was posted and the line was -250, not +140. Did they move their line that quickly or did someone misread the decimal odds as American odds (-250 is 1.40 in decimal odds.)

Re: SIA Senate Bet Info
 

Is the bet being graded immediately after the election? Because when control is close, there's always a chance of someone switching parties, but that probably wouldn't happen until January.

In any event, any switch would most likely be from D to R, so I agree that there is a lot of value in betting the elephant here.