Crushed with AA?
 

200NL Full Ring Blinds $1/$2

Hero $212 on button

Villian $258 Middle Postion

SB posts $1, BB posts $2, 2 players call BB, Hero raises to $12 from Button with
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2 players from middle position call.

FLOP ($39) 3 players

4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to Hero who bets $33, Player 1 folds, Villan calls

TURN ($105) 2 PLAYERS

9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian checks,

Hero??????

I know the obvious answer is to bet, but how do I avoid losing my entire stack when he has flopped a small set? This sure seems like a set to me.

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

What are villains stats? He would have to be mega-nit for me to be worrying about a set (on the flop at least). Why cant he have a jack? An underpair to the J? I'd bet around $70 on the turn and go from there.....

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

Site is not compatable to PT. He seems solid, certainly not a loose cannon. With a bet of $70, what do you do when he pushes all in?

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

If he pushes over the top you'd have ~100 behind right? Without any solid reads I'd probably lay it down. In my experience, a call on flop followed by a raise on the turn generally screams out that villain has a set. If he flat calls, then i would put him on a J.

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

Well given your take on villain, I would fold to the push.

However, why on earth do you think your AA is behind on the turn when he checks to you? His range is way wide, and you MUST bet this turn. I you folded to the push on the turn, I think you played this fine.

Ojo_Rojo

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

If you bet 70 on the turn you've bet 115 of your 200 stack and you're obviously committed. Thus the decision here is whether to go for pot control or play for stacks, and it's you that has to make the decision. If he felts here with KJ or something, definitely bet. If he's nittish, and the game plays real slow, you can check behind and call a bet on the river / bet if checked to. Board is pretty dry, so protection isn't an important concern here.

I'd lean towards betting with the kind of image I have, I get paid enough to make it clearly better in the typical case.

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

The only other way to play it is too check the turn with the intention of calling a river bet. The diamond on the turn makes it a touch risky but he wasnt calling initially with a FD.

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

I also think with a $70 bet you are commited also. You would need to call off your last $97 into a $342 pot with an over pair, giving you 3.5 to 1 on your money.

I just know from experience that this is how I would play a small set. Call the BB, Call a raise against 2 players, then just flat call the flop bet on this flop. I think most players reraise this flop with a hand like AJ.

I know at these levels I win a lot of big pots with small sets against big pairs, and lose a lot of big pots the same way.

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

If your worried about a set every time you have an overpair you might as well not play them. Why can't he have a big jack, 56 suited, or something similar. If your 100% sure he has a set, you of course should slow down but how can you be so sure unless he's a total nit. Bet around half pot (45) and fold to a push if your so concerned.

Re: Crushed with AA?
 

What worries me is the call on the flop. To me this is a sign of strength. I think he reraises if he has the J, in fact I push over the top to any flop reraise. I also think he will bet the river to a missed 56, or a hand like 99, 10 10 that he called the flop on thinking I missed with big cards and will not fire a second barrel. I think there are many hands he folds to a $70 turn bet, but bets the river to my turn check. I think I am either way ahead or way behind.

I guess my question is, am I losing that much value in the long run by checking the turn and calling any river bet?