Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

I kinda feel like I have too much analysis to clutter up a community thread, at least on the first game, so I decided to make my own thread this week despite having an absolutely terrible record in Week 3.

YTD: 16-22-1, -3.845 units


Oregon -16.5 at Stanford (Risk 2u to win 1.96u)
Feel a little nervous betting 2 units on the nationally ranked road dog that's facing the perennial loser who's projected to be improved this year. Just screams "square side". My other main concern is that Oregon will likely be overlooking Stanford somewhat in preparation for one of their biggest games of the year against Cal.

However, I still feel Oregon's undervalued here. They had a really fluky bad year last season where they outgained their opponents by more than anyone in the conference and still finished with a losing record coming off a 10-1 season and aren't getting recognition as fast as they should be.

They battered Michigan on the road by 32 points (who is still probably one of the 25 best teams in the country in all honesty) and then led a very good Fresno State team 42-14 at the half en route to a 52-21 win. Their other win wasn't quite as impressive, but they still covered the spread comfortably that game, beating Houston by 21. I have the Ducks as the #5 team in the country. (No computer numbers there, just personal analysis.)

Also, the matchups are wildly favorable for Oregon. Stanford is a passing team (89 pass att vs. 74 rush att) and will be passing even more when trailing against Oregon. Meanwhile, Oregon's defensive strength is their passing D as they rank 33rd in pass efficiency D compared to 77th in rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, Oregon much prefers to run (64 pass att vs. 147 rush att) and goes up against a rush defense that gave up 338 yards on the ground to UCLA. If you're looking for a baseline without matchups, Sagarin says UO should be favored by 17 on the road (a half point off the actual line).

Finally, UCLA is a really close comparison for Stanford as they are a similar team to Oregon (if not quite as good) and beat Stanford on the road by 28 as a 17 point favorite. The other close comparison is that last year, the Ducks beat Stanford by 38 at home. All things considered, without the "lookahead game" factor, I'd like the Ducks by 28 here. With that, I'll take off a TD, but I still think UO should be favored by ~21. A four and a half point difference crossing 3 key numbers seems to be pretty big so I like UO for 2 units.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

All right, I finally got this matched at a decent price:

Texas A&M at Miami -2.5 (Risk 1.54u to win 1.47u)
Basically, I do think A&M's a little better talent wise, but the matchups are really favorable for Miami as they have a very good run defense with an extremely vulnerable secondary and A&M loves to run the ball continuously. On the other side of the ball, A&M's run defense is ranked 67th (worse than their pass D), so I think that the Canes should be able to pound the ball even with their lack of a passing attack.

Also, from a 'fade the public' standpoint, everyone saw Miami get blown up by Oklahoma (by their passing game more specifically), and much fewer watched the Aggies nearly get beat by Fresno on FSN. Add in a little ranked dog vs. unranked favorite and I'm thinking the squares are all over A&M here. I really like Miami and I think there's solid value on this play.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

1-0, +1.47 units on the week. FTR, the reason the units end up funny a lot of the time is that a lot of the time I bet to win 1.5 units on Matchbook before taking the commission out and don't think to actually take it out until doing my writeup.

Here are some more picks:

South Carolina +18 at LSU
Kinda went through it in the other thread, but the gist of the analysis is that South Carolina is a very good team and even when they weren't as good last year, they never lost a game by more than 18 points. Sagarin ratings do have LSU favored by a ridiculous amount (32?!), but that's mainly due to one game where SC had half the team suspended and another sandwich game vs. a I-AA opponent when they weren't focused at all. The one real game (vs. Georgia), they looked every bit like the SEC title contender they appeared to be to start the season.

Also, South Carolina has historically played very well on the road as they're 13-4 ATS under Spurrier away from home including covers in their last 8 games. I don't think the hostile environment will affect them too much and I think they should be able to keep it within 2 TDs. Remember, LSU's only real wins this season were over a VT that's looked very mediocre vs. East Carolina and Ohio and against a Mississippi State team that could have kept it close if they hadn't lost the turnover battle 7-0.

Illinois at Indiana +3 (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)
Pure follow on MyTurn's POTW. Liked his analysis in the early lines thread.

I'm betting Toledo vs. ISU as well. Will put up analysis when I get my offer fully matched on Matchbook. Also, trying to take the GT/UVA under, but won't bet unless I get a decent price.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

Nice analysis, but I can't imagine Oregon being a value bet this week despite the numbers. Hope you've been betting the Ducks all season, because it seems strange to wait until now to jump on board. I think their mascot is out, too...

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

Oops, somehow didn't put units on the South Carolina/LSU game. I'm risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units.

And yes, I've been betting Oregon this season. Actually lost the first game as I took the 1st half line instead of the game line, thinking I was getting a better number there, and I bet them against Michigan as well. Didn't bet them against FSU because the number was fairly high and there were too many emotional issues to figure out properly where the game was likely to finish.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

Georgia Tech -156 at Virginia (Risk 1.54 units to win 0.96 units)

Gave the official Matchbook price first, and then converted afterwards. Sorry if this is a past-post officially as it's already 7-0 Jackets, but I just woke up and the Matchbook offer got taken while I was sleeping. I'll post a screenshot if anyone requests it.

Anyway, I think Georgia Tech's the better side here and I figured if I could get approximately the break-even price on Pinny, it was worth a play.

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Adding:

Maryland +3.5 at Wake Forest (Risk 1 unit to win 1.05 units)
I thought Maryland was better than Wake going into the season and the only thing holding me back was that Wake seemed to play well in a close loss to Nebraska. With Nebraska looking like garbage vs. Ball State and positive juice, I think Maryland's worth a play.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

I didn't see anyone else posting here


just wanted to let you know that we are reading....good stuff as always...ty

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

I'm with you on Maryland, and I was already convinced Nebraska was nothing special this year and they're out proving it right now.

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Actually I didn't read up far enough. I'm with you on South Carolina too. GL

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

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I just grabbed 3.5 -115 and +140 ML before reading this. I like it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

Iggy - I definitely think the Glass Bowl is one of the better home-field advantages among non-BCS schools.
Weird lighting, bad turf although perhaps it's improved by now, and the big stone bricks make you feel like you walked into Shawshank or something. It's just weird and kind of intimidating I thought.
It doesn't feel modern at all. For a visiting team arriving there I think it mostly has the feel of, "WTF kind of place is this?"
So I definitely tend to give the Rockets a slightly larger edge when they're at home.

Akron's Rubber Bowl is a somewhat decent home-field advantage in that conference for it's unique feel too imo.

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Not that I'm a big believer in trends, etc but to support the TOL home-field adv theory:

"TOL are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games."

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

I like the Toledo pick.

ISU basically had their season crowning moment last week. Now they go on the road for a non conf game .... they're very unlikely to have a shot to get bowl eligible so this game looks like major letdown potential

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I tell ya Spurier really hurt our chances in this game by doing on of the stupidest things I've seen in a while by going for it on 4th down on his own 25 mid way in the 3rd and only down 14. It not like LSU has totally lit them up either his defense has played decent, I can't understand why he did not just punt the ball.

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It makes sense from the standpoint that they were down 14 against a superior opponent and needed to take some chances to have a shot at winning. Obviously, if he was looking to cover the spread, he would have just punted.

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I suppose maybe if I was not betting on this game I might see it that way but I'm not really sure about that. His defense is playing fine and there is plenty of time left in the game that taking a chance mid way in the 3rd quarter from where they were at seemed silly. It was not a short yard either, it was a good full yard maybe a yard and a 1/2 they needed.
Oh well lets hope for our slim shot at a suck out to come through now.

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Washington State +11 vs. USC (2nd half) (Risk 1u to win 1.03u)

USC's lead is just safe enough that they're likely to get a little sleepy in the 2nd half. Also, they've been getting most of their offense through the passing game, so if they go to the run, the scoring should slow way down.

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[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

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Easy win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Couldn't actually watch the game, but I was following on GameCast and Toledo got two TDs in the last 5:30 and then blocked an Iowa State FG with 0:15 to win by 1.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

Finished 4-4 this week, +2.167 units, leaving myself 20-26-1, -1.678 units on the year. So almost back to even, although I did lose just under half a unit on live betting which was unposted.

Kind of a weird day, as the big plays that seemed desperately lost (Oregon down 10 at the half, Toledo down 11 with 5:30 left) came through for me, while some others that looked good (Maryland up 21 with 2:00 in the 3rd, GT leading with the ball late) fell apart.

Anyway, in general, I think I need to trust my instincts and my analysis more, and possibly cut down on the number of plays even further. The games I wrote two paragraphs of analysis or more on went 4-0 and the ones that I had weak reasoning on all lost. At least I was in the black this week though, so hopefully, I'll keep improving from here on out.

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I enjoyed the analysis thanks for posting this stuff.
The Maryland game I stopped watching I was shocked to see later that it lost. I though there was an error at first till I went back and checked the score.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

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The Maryland game I stopped watching I was shocked to see later that it lost. I though there was an error at first till I went back and checked the score.

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I watched every second of the game on ESPNU, but yet I still thought there might have been an error and doublechecked my vision, too [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 4 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Couldn't actually watch the game, but I was following on GameCast and Toledo got two TDs in the last 5:30 and then blocked an Iowa State FG with 0:15 to win by 1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jesus. I knew we got a gift but I didn't know it was that big of one. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I got a couple of this yesterday. It felt nice for a change.