$500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

6K starting stacks 15 mins in and I'm taking the bb for the 2nd time. 25/50 and there are 5 limps to me. I have QQ and pop it to 350. Much to my surprise I get 4 calls??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img](DONK ALERT)

Flop is 622 rainbow and I toss out a 500 chip (deliberate underbet). 2 instafolds and then an old guy who has played almost every hand quickly raises to 1500. Next limper folds and it's back to me.

I get a sick feeling and go into the tank before folding. As he's raking the pot he lifts his cards above the chips and I catch a glimpse of a deuce. Great laydown me BUT..............

Is this the type of laydown that has a negative expectation longterm while playing live? Can't a donkish live play opponent have an overpair to the board or A6 where I would read strength much the same?

It seems as often as I get these right I get them wrong and lay down the best hand while playing live. So in essence I survive in a bunch of tournies because I can lay down a big hand but I also don't accumulate as well as I could in some others.

Is it long term +EV to just step on the gas and move in here? What say you?

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

This would be -ev online.

You were live and had a good read. Nice hand.

Obviously the long term expectation is dependent on the degree of confidence that the old guy had a deuce or 66 and not a hand like pocket 8s that he thought was the nuts on this flop (he put you on AK). If you are 60% confident of your read (or whatever the number is -- figure it out with pot odds) then you made a good fold.

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

Why not lead out standard to like 1-1.2K? Then it would be easier to read if you get action.

What is your position? You should probably raise to more than 7xBB with 5 limpers, particularly if you are in the blinds. In pot limit, you could make it 8.5xBB.

As played, I like going broke to the old guy's trip deuces.

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

Online felting this everytime. Also, raise to like 450 preflop I think. As played, old dude + dry board + raise on flop = Big hand, good fold.

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

I don't think this is -EV. You made a good read, I doubt the player would re-raise with A6. Probably with an overpair though. But you made the right play

I hate moving in, because you are way ahead, or way behind. You might get called by an overpair, but probably not. I think you need to go with your reads and not second guess yourself.

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

In live $560 buy-in deep stack tournaments, bad players abuse the stack and make crazy PF plays in early levels. When you know you are up against this type of players, you generally raise more PF with QQ to get HU post flop. As played, folding is +EV here.

But in larger buy-ins ($2K+) tournaments, folding is -EV.

Knowing the players and adjust your play accordingly.

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why not lead out standard to like 1-1.2K?



[/ QUOTE ]


Because hero realized the players were making really bad PF calls and their PF calling ranges is much wider than we thought. However, since they suck, on the flop, they almost never think what raiser has, just look at their own hand and call/fold with air to a tiny c-bet...

At Rio's $525 single table satellites, you will often see a 6 way limper pot (300) folds to a 75 button bet on the flop... in live tournament, bad players give you PF action and fold in multiway pots very often.

Re: $500 + $60 Borgata - Sick Laydown but is this -EV Longterm?
 

If you deliberately underbet to induce a bluff, and then fold to a raise, uh, that's bad