200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

UTG is a sLAG regular with a wide UTG range, so I think the button squeeze is pretty standard. No reads on the BB, though.

I have a big problem folding to these tiny raises that give me great odds to call. I think it's pretty clear that his range is QQ+ (and probably KK+), and my equity is higher with T9s than it would be with JJ. Should I be folding here, or do I call his pussy raise? Do you factor in how bad a fold is for my 3betting image when making this decision?


UB NLHE, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

Effective stacks: $200

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $5</font>, 4 folds, CO calls $5, <font color="red">Hero raises to $25</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">BB raises to $48</font>, 2 folds, HERO calls?

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

I used to have the same problem you do, but have gotten better recently. With effective stacks the size they are, and knowing that basically you'll have to get it all on on the flop with no FE, you just have to fold here. Basically, you're just hoping to flop better than a pair, and flopping a draw doesn't really help because he's not folding post-flop here.

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

I guess one thing I should ask is about "outflop equity" here. Is there any program/formula that shows how often I outflop AA/KK here (whether it's T-9-x, 9-9-x, superdraws where I'm even money, etc.)? Obviously, I can figure out my PF AI equity, but is there a way to figure out my "flop equity" since this hand never makes it to the turn?

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

Fold. You'll only flop two-pair or better ~5% of the time, and two pair is easily outdrawn by overpair. You'll flop a combo draw, idk, like 8%. Really not worth it.

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

I agree with the fold here, unless you think he's giving you credit for squeezing pretty light.

Re: the impact a fold here has on your 3bet image...is it really going to have one? Everyone can see that he's repping KK+ (maybe QQ, but I doubt it). Unless you're trying to give the impression that your 3bet range is extremely tight (KK+), then you are probably correct to fold a lot of your perceived 3bet range here. Would you call w/ AK here? AQ? I guess what I'm saying is I don't think a fold is detrimental to your 3bet image, most players probably won't think much of it unless they see it happening often.

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

If you can assume you will get it in on the flop basically all of the time you hit, you are being offered 10.2:1 (calling $23 to win $234 total) effective odds.

You will make a hand (flush/two pair/straight/trips/full house/quads) 5.6% of the time and flop a strong draw (12+ outs) 6.9% of the time. (this is from a stickied post in SSNL)

If you add these together, you get 12.5% of the time (7:1 odds). So, theoretically you are getting offered good effective odds to call, but that is if you are guaranteed to get AI everytime.

From a math perspective, if you are sure you can get your hand AI 75% of the time you hit your hand (9.375% of the total time you call), you would still be getting better than the necessary 9.1 or so % to call based on your effective odds.

Granted, there are times you will hit your hand, and your opponent will have you beat, but I hope this math at least gives an insight into this type of decision. I think it is very close since the 4bet is so small, but I would probably fold preflop.

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

Any of the 200NL regs want to chime in? I'm interested to see if my math is somewhat correct.

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

Not an expert on this subject, but i don't think you can count a combo draw as 'hitting your hand'.

A combo draw gives you even money, with some dead money in the pot for extras. Out-flopping him is hitting your hand.

For example, when you are talking about set mining, you are looking to have better then 10:1 to call on the assumption that 'if you hit your hand, it will be best' which you're going to do 7.5:1 of the time.

This is a similar situation, though a combo draw doesn't give you the best hand.

Can someone let me know if i'm way off the mark here

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

if you think his 4 bet range is as wide as AK, QQ +, shove and put him to the test. If you are called you still have 35% equity.

spew?

Re: 200NL: I Hate Letting Go
 

illini, your math has some flaws, because you have calculated that everytime you flop a monsterdraw or 2pair, you get all of his money, when in fact you are usually 50/50 with a monster draw and will sometimes get drawn out on when 2pair against an overpair.