[NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

Villain is Schemeny and seems to play quite tight from what I have seen so far.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $269.80
CO: $240.40
BTN: $198
SB: $253.40
BB: $200

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $7, BB folds

Flop: ($18) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $12</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $40</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $132</font> HERO ???

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

I fold there.

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

I think you SHOULD fold here (although dont think I couldn't do it), he's pretty nitty, i think i have him running like 12/10 or something, and from what i've seen has generally shown down nut like hands. This is more likely 33-55 than a draw, or even 67 (i'm not sure he would cold call that).

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

When I used to play that nitty at fr this was a set 100% of the time.

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

I still say fold, because of villain specifically. However, pokerstove says we are good to get the money in here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.005 secs 4,950,000 games/sec

Board: 3s 4s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.448% 48.73% 01.72% 12060 426.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 49.552% 47.83% 01.72% 11838 426.00 { QQ-JJ, 55-33, 76s }

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

So, villain never has the NFD here?

Because the NFD has, like, a billion outs vs. even KK. You'd be crazy not to play the NFD aggressively. I might also include 66 as it has 10 outs vs. overpairs.

Hard for me to believe that his range is not more like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29,700 games 0.001 secs 29,700,000 games/sec

Board: 3s 4s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.409% 57.31% 02.10% 17022 622.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 40.591% 38.49% 02.10% 11433 622.50 { QQ-JJ, 66-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs }


And you can't give him a straight here. If he can have 7s6s, than he can have all kinds of other flush draws+overs as well and that increases his range and our equity.

He may be nitty, but he's probably not going to play a big draw passively. And you have more equity than usual vs. a set here with your gutshot.

If his range is pure PPs pre-flop and he isn't going to give you action with JJ/QQ then check behind on the flop. Hard to believe anyone is that nitty, but w/e, you guys know him.

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

If you are folding AA here i want you all at my table... villain never has KK-TT here? Get those chips in the middle. Im a super nit (16/13) my range here is more than a set.

Sometimes i think a lot of you like to say fold because you are trying to prove you can fold a big hand when really the fold is -EV

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are folding AA here i want you all at my table... villain never has KK-TT here?


[/ QUOTE ]

KK seems unlikely -- wouldn't the nit have 3bet oop?

TT also seems like a serious stretch, considering the flop action, doesn't it?

Maybe add AKs to the range. Anyway, I'd fold, unless your image hzs been LAG and you think he's putting you on a wide range to begin with.

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are folding AA here i want you all at my table... villain never has KK-TT here?


[/ QUOTE ]

KK seems unlikely -- wouldn't the nit have 3bet oop?

TT also seems like a serious stretch, considering the flop action, doesn't it?

Maybe add AKs to the range. Anyway, I'd fold, unless your image hzs been LAG and you think he's putting you on a wide range to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is TT a stretch? It's clearly way ahead of a Tag's opening + c-betting range, and the board is drawy. Why not c/r there? If you have TT are you really unhappy if villain folds AKo? Or hell, any Ace? They'd probably be correct to push hands like AJo, but they aren't likely to, versus your 12/10 self.

Really, the only folds TT doesn't want to see are 77-99, or random junky connectors that don't have a piece -- none of which you are liable to get further action from because pretty much every turn card scares one of you or kills one of your hands.

And, clearly, a 12/10 is more than capable of thinking about further streets in this manner.

Board: 3s 4s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.404% 40.51% 01.90% 190089 8895.00 { A2s+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 57.596% 55.70% 01.90% 261381 8895.00 { TT }

Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are folding AA here i want you all at my table... villain never has KK-TT here?


[/ QUOTE ]

KK seems unlikely -- wouldn't the nit have 3bet oop?

[/ QUOTE ]

If a nit knows hes a nit and knows the table knows hes a nit will often just call with KK or AA and hope to trap... trust me... we do this a fair amount and raise a fair amount to vary our play some. A lot of lags seem to think nits are straight forward abc poker but a good nit knows his image and will vary his play to maximize profit. When a nit 3bets what do you do... you fold.. so if we know that why do we always want to 3bet KK