Ok spot for a bluff?
 

Btn is a fairly nitty tag. Villain seems like a good tag of the 25/20 variety. Sometimes I squeeze here, this time I did not.

Main villain is co, only played about 200 hands vs him but so far, he seems solid. Seems to love to c/r turns and try generally tricky stuff, perhaps to a fault and at weird times imo but whatever, I've only seen a few and just thought the timing/board texture was weird.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $767.80
UTG: $106.35
MP: $102.20
CO: $200
BTN: $331.75
SB: $164

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO raises to $10, BTN calls $10, SB folds, Hero calls $8, MP folds

Flop: ($33) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($33) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22, 1 fold, Hero raises to $72



I feel like he doesn't always have to have an A here, btn is set mining pretty much 100%, when he does, he doesn't have to go too many levels deep to realize that I know he has one and wouldn't make this move unless I could beat that A, right? Retarded?

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

people dont fold on paired boards.

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

I dislike it

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

sl, I tend to agree that people don't fold to flop raises on paired boards but you don't think the fact that we're on the turn can work to our advantage here?

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

But how often is he bluffing with air against two people, both of which can have an ace? I just don't think he's gonna have KQ or something here enough times. Don't forget that our setminer button can have 22 still.

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

I don't like it. He'll probably think "I probably will be checking here with a lot of my range because I want cheep showdown, he'll realize that, and lead with a T to get calls from a wider range of hands".

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
The facter that determines the EV on this play is the players abiity to fold an ace not how often he has an ace. I didn't see it mentioned in OP. If that is obvious, my bad.

Re: Ok spot for a bluff?
 

yah, I didn't have a read that strong either way. He seemed to be a pretty good, looser tag so I assumed that if my line was credible he could fold an A.

Basically, I just sort of thought, hmm, if i were him I'd be in a pretty [censored] spot here if I got c/r'd some stack committing amount with AQ.