Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

Before i get flamed for being stupid/playing scared, I know i suck at NL. I've played limit most of my life, and I've only recently started playing NL. This kind of situation has just been killing me since i started playing NL, so i was hoping for some help.

I read professional NL holdem, but my problem is there's no way to get the SPR i need in this situation, so i was hoping some ppl could help me figure out my default plays, and how they decide whether to raise or fold here.

Villain is 22/5.6/Postflop AF 4.5. Other than that i had no notes.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($53.35)
CO ($35.70)
Button ($10.50)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($52.75)
UTG ($11.20)
UTG+1 ($52.60)
Hero ($60)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP2 calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $10</font>, Hero ???

If this were limit, it's easy. 3 bet, if he 4 bets, i can always call down if i'm beat. Unfortunately, it's NL, and if i call this, the rest of my stack is going in by the river. If i raise to something like $20, and then fold, i lose 40% of my stack.

He's very aggressive, so he could be on a stone bluff, he could have called with JTs or something and think i just missed, he could have a flush draw and be semi-bluffing, or he could have a set.

My problem is assuming I reraise and get all in, anyone set mining is playing profitably against me. They will stack me if they hit, and they fold if they miss. But if i'm folding in this situation, QQ turns into basically 2/7 in that I'm just looking to take down the pot with no showdown. Aggressive players could just bluff me out every time. If it was 50 BB's i could get in much easier, but at 100 there's really no way I can make it easy.

Given this info, do you think i should reraise/call all in? Reraise/fold? Fold to this raise?

Also, I was hoping some people could give me a little more info on your thought process in these situations. How do you decide what to do in these situations? That kind of info would help me a lot.

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

If you 3 bet this flop, you don't fold.

Against a player with a 4.5 postflop AF and playing 22% of hands I'd be willing to bet he's getting out of line a lot. On this flop I'm going broke because he's going to show up with stuff like Jsxs and As4s hands as well as hands he's just going to fold like KJo.

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

Based on his stats (although you didn't say how many hands he's played) and the fact the board is flush drawing (thus adding strong draws to his range) I'd say 3-bet/felt it. Reads help a lot in these situations though.

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

3bet flop, get it allin on the flop against this villain.

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

Yeah i know it's read dependent, but this kind of situation is killing me.

Basically, what you guys seem to be saying is look at VPIP, and if it's somewhat high, and aggression factor is high I should lean more towards just 3 betting.

Also if you were going to 3 bet this, how much would you reraise? Would you just push, or raise to something like $20 and push the turn?

I really would not want to see an A, K or Spade (although the Qs helps), but if doesn't raising less give villain a chance to call with something like KJ? Or maybe let him think he has some FE and push me back?

Or should i be looking ot just end the hand? Thanks!

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

If you're going to reraise, just push. Raising to $20 would be awful since it gives him great odds to draw to a flush. the choices are push and call imo.

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

What if the board came J53 rainbow instead? Does that increase villain's set likelihood enough that some of you are folding here?

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

Call the flop. Stack-a-donk turn non-spade, non-Jack turn. No one thinks so?

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

I don't think so. If turn is a spade and he has a hand like AJ and bets and we fold we're just outthinking ourselves. If we shove now we'll never fold the best hand.

Re: Stars $50 - Overpair vs flop raise
 

Yeah but we also don't get to felt dominated hands (e.g. KJ) if he's a shred good. Also, idk if we're simply c/fing a spade. Like I'd call a half pot on the turn. We have the Queen of spades. Plus, most Villain's don't turn AJ into a bluff. I know this guy is aggro, but if we just call, we're repping an FD pretty well and he probably freezes just as much as we do at the spade if he wasn't drawing.