100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

I hadn't been at the table too long. I usually run at about 18/12 but I'd been seeing a few more flops than normal so far at the table. MP1's call of 2 bets on the flop was pretty scary. Anyone push the flop?

MP1 is 38/3 over 100 or so hands
UTG is unknown.

Um... I'm not crazy about a call or a fold here. I think it's pretty marginal. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) handconverter.com

Hero ($108.85)
CO ($113.60)
Button ($98)
SB ($104.75)
BB ($20)
UTG ($90.35)
UTG+1 ($32.35)
MP1 ($282.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $2, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>, MP1 calls $16, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($57) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $72.35 (All-In)</font>, MP1 calls $72.35, Hero folds.

River: ($201.70) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $201.70

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

I probably call because I'm confused.

It's close though. I think A5 or worse is a fold, AJ or better is a call.

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

it's very close. but i'm a donk so i call.

i always assume players will make the smartest play. if MP1 had made hand on flop (cuz turn couldn't have helped), i would expect him to raise. if UTG had anything, i would not expect min-check-raise OOP and then overbet on turn.

i'm confused. i call

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

Meh, I hate a call here.

UTG min raises PF, then c/min raises flop, and then overbet shoves the turn. We can assume he is pretty bad from his actions thus far, however, his line also looks pretty strong, some donks may play JJ/55/AA in this manner.

MP2, could cold call JJ preflop as well as AQ and AK, and 55 is definatly in thier range. Consdiering thier postflop action thier hand I think is more weighted towards something like AQss AKss JJ or 55.

vs those two proposed ranges for the villains, I think one of them is likley to have a set far to often to call here, and I go ahead and give it up.

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

[ QUOTE ]
i always assume players will make the smartest play.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a bad assumption.

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

Call. Two spades and the Ace of clubs are on the board. Somebody could easily have TP+NFD here. Not to mention there are worse two pairs and chops. Plus, MP1 is an imbecile so really we're only worried about UTG here.

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

I don't think I call here without any reads on UTG. His whole line is kind of ridiculous, but it nonetheless look pretty strong to me:

Minraise UTG
Check Raise flop
Semi-scared looking donk-shove on a drawy board when he actually got two callers on the flop.

I think this is a set a lot of the time.

What about re-raising the flop?

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

UTGs play might not be what most would call intelligent or good poker play, but that doesn't mean we should assume he can't have a big hand and just not played it optimally. I think UTG screams JJ (or possibly 55, AA) here.
Since he is an unknown we cannot conclude the value of his cards because his play doesn't look "normal". But think how he could be justifying every bet he makes here with a hand like JJ or 55.

PF: He tells himself something like this "I have a good hand, but I don't want to put to much into the middle in case over cards hit. (or in the case of AA I don't want everyone to fold and me only win blinds)"

FLOP: He tells himself "I hit a SET! I need to get paid off! I'll check raise!" So he checks, and hero bets. Then it comes back to him and he says "I don't want to scare him off completely. I need him to not fold his flush draw" so he min raises and lays good odds to call the draw.

TURN: "I didn't expect two guys to come along.... I need to protect my hand now and not let someone draw out on me cheap...All IN!"

And despite the "poor" play from the UTG, this pretty common line of thinking has just justified every bet he made and been consistent with the thoughts of a weak tight player trying hard to not be weak because he read it in a book somewhere.

MP looks like he is drawing with something like QTs+ drawing to a flush and a straight thinking "If 2 people are going to come along I am getting great odds to draw".

I fold, expect UTG to have a set almost every time and see the cards get turned up and now UTG isn't as unknown.

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

I think I'd fold to one player having a set

Re: 100NL - Top 2 pair, multiway pot... WTF??
 

Call please.

Board: Ac Js 5s 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.347% 15.96% 11.39% 1394 995.00 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 52.427% 42.72% 09.71% 3732 848.00 { AA, JJ, 55, AsKs, AJs, A5s, A3s, AJo }
Hand 2: 20.227% 17.77% 02.46% 1552 215.00 { AA, JJ, 55, AKs, AJs, A5s, A3s, AKo, AJo, A5o, A3o }

I really can't make the ranges any tighter than this. This neglects the true retardedness of MP1 and doesn't account for any possibility of UTG being a maniac.