Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

Villain is peachy. Original opener I've never seen before but is playing like 16/8 over the 100 or so hands I have with him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($5838)
MP2 ($4775)
CO ($5957)
Button ($1699.50)
Hero ($6344)
BB ($6844)
UTG ($5535)
UTG+1 ($16512.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $150</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $1500</font>, CO folds

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

This hand depends on the metagame. What history do you and Peachy have?

Edit: Is this peachy_keen? If so, Peachy is going to make his plays based on your previous history, so whatever history you have its important to divulge it to get a good read on whats going on in this hand. If you dont have any history, I'd probably push.

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This hand depends on the metagame. What history do you and Peachy have?

Edit: Is this peachy_keen?

[/ QUOTE ]

yah this is peachy_keen.

peachy is pretty tight and we mostly stay out of eachother's way. she probably views me as very aggressive to overaggressive preflop. i'm philivey2694 if that helps. i think her range is probably something like qq+, ak to call a 5bet with and some bluffs. i'm pretty sure she's not 4betting planning to call a 5bet with jj. the problem is i have no idea how much she's bluffing. also, we're 125BB deep here, i think that makes it a significantly harder call than if we're only 100BB deep.

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

It being 150BB deep makes a bluff a lot more plausible no?, since then you can actually get away from a 5bet and not feel terrible.

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It being 150BB deep makes a bluff a lot more plausible no?, since then you can actually get away from a 5bet and not feel terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

its only 125BB, but yes this makes it more plausible that its a bluff. not exactly because the bluff can fold to a 5bet though. i hear this logic all the time, but if i'm not mistaken, it doesn't make sense. folding to the 5bet is 0ev. if villain calls the 5bet thats obviously because he thinks its +EV. i.e. betting x and then folding must be worse than betting x and then correctly calling.
its more likely that its a bluff because it puts more pressure on us, because we risk more by putting our stack in.

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

You have to decide, with all of the information at your disposal, whether, at this specific moment, hes doing this with a lot of hands or he isn't. Don't worry about future meta-game or how exploitable it would be if he did this with a huge range or any of that crap.

I know I'm not being clear. The obvious nitty answer is to fold, and thats usually right. But, I think in this type of situation its pretty important to realize that, hes sitting there in the bb, and he isn't thinking im 4-betting X% with air and X% with AA/KK maybe AK. Sometimes thats how we make decisions, but thats not how people think. Whats happening is, he is either deciding "this is a good spot to try to win this pot" and 4-betting you with a huge range, or he isnt. So its: (A) RIGHT NOW, in this hand, hes doing this with a lot of hands (B) he isn't and is usually going to have it. Then push your entire range or fold.

IMO this hand is basically useless to post, because the answer is so obvious and unavoidable. There's no way around needing to just make an educated guess and hope to make the right decision here- only the nits way out, just fold.

This reminds me of the whitelime hand vs. aba. Everyone was going on with all of that SHANIA stuff and nth level thinking, but thats not what was really going on. Aba just sat there and decided, at that moment, that whitelime was going to call him if he had a king often enough to make pushing the best play. If he had a bluff in that spot, with his read he would absolutely never shove, because he has decided that hes gonna get called. I think a lot of poker decisions where we stress long term strategy and exploitability are great exercises for thinking about poker, but in the heat of the moment are of little use. We like to try to fight this type of thinking because it doesn't have a huge influence on how hands are played out on or our results, except in the toughest of games. But, in the long run, if the guy on the other side of the table knows your emotional state, analyzes the factors influecing your decision, and correctly assesses your state of mind, he is going to make the right decision and you're gonna get [censored] up unless you are genuinely making decisions completely randomly. I think thats a big edge that players like Aba, Ivey (live), and PA have that we tend to overlook.


Intuition bitches.

-Jeff

edit- peachy is good and is a guy

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

Very nice post ActionJeff.

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

ike, peachy is not a girl

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

i think ppl over analyze this kind of situation, i just push and gamble.

Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
 

Jeff,
You could take that a step further and say 'he only has one hand at any given time, so just use your intuition and figure out what it is, and make the appropriate play.' The point is, you have to weight the estimated probability of him doing this with a lot of hands vs doing it only with AA/KK or whatever. yeah intuition is great if you can figure out exactly what he has in any given hand - then shania/hand ranges are worthless - but that's kinda hard.

there's two definitions for probability: the bayesian one and the frequentist one. A frequentist might say that he's only doing this one time and so 'probability' is irrelevant, you just have to guess whether he's doing it with air or whether he isn't, which is pretty close to what you're saying I think. That's not so helpful though. He also might say 'from ike's perspective, he has certain evidence and thoughts about the flow of the game, and in situations in which he has the same evidence, if repeated over and over again, he will make this play with air a certain % of the time, so we should base our play on that'. But that doesn't really make sense, because Ike will never have the same evidence, and you can't repeat it over and over again.

What I think is most useful for poker, is looking at probability from the bayesian perspective; probability is a totally subjective measure of your confidence level that he will be making the play with air. Yes, at any given time he may not be thinking about 'I'm doing this x% of the time, because that exploits him, or that's unexploitable', but you definitely aren't 100% confident that he always makes this play with air, or never makes this play with air, so you have to use all the evidence you have about the current state, and the estimated prior probability of him making this play with air, come up with a subjective number of how often you thinks he does it, and act accordingly.

that said, I agree that posting this hand probably isn't that helpful, because guessing at the probability of how often he makes this move is very difficult if you're not watching the flow of the game (and presumably also difficult if you are). But you can't just say 'use intuition' and ignore the math aspect. Intuition is math.