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karpov 10-30-2007 01:05 PM

2-7 Hand 200-400 Bellagio Mixed Games
Solid Player raised in MP, Jordan extremely solid as well 3 bets, I 4 bets in the B with 87532, MP calls, Jordan 5 Bets.
MP draw 1, he has 7632 or 7432 but drawing to a 7. Jordan draw 1, he has for sure 7432. Do you pat or break the 8? What is the percentage that both will miss after 3 draws?

*TT* 10-30-2007 02:07 PM

Re: 2-7 Hand 200-400 Bellagio Mixed Games
1) What makes you so sure that Jordan has 2347? Isnt 2345 and 2457 also within that range?

2) MP is the best case scenario, he has 8 outs, but in reality its rather obvious his outs are tainted. We can assume he has around 4-6 at best and 3 outs to make a worse 8 which will pay you off.

Heads up with the dead cards we know about 2347 is a slight favorite to win going into the draw heads up vs you, he has 6 outs to make a 7 and 3 outs to make a better 8. If the hands were turned over I'd call the first draw and re-evaluate even though your a small dog. Once we know your hand is good after the first draw then I play poker because your a small favorite.

HOWEVER once you add int he other opponent I really don't know how to answer your question since you have such precise ranges, usually ranges are wider than this.

InWithTheBest 10-30-2007 02:48 PM

Re: 2-7 Hand 200-400 Bellagio Mixed Games
you gotta keep it for now but consider breaking later to a check raise. Im pretty sure Jordan will never check raise you with worse hand on 1st or 2nd draw, i assume if other player is solid he will either make his 7 or keep drawing. This is closer if you had an 87652 or if jordan 5 bet you while he was in position. The fact that you are in position and are unlikely to be bluffed off your hand makes it much easier to keep it.

DeathDonkey 10-30-2007 07:48 PM

Re: 2-7 Hand 200-400 Bellagio Mixed Games
As an aside, man I remember playing 2-7 with Jordan like two years ago at the 30/60ish level and he was a tiltmonkey with some skill. In Vegas over the summer I see him playing big black chip and any gossip I could get basically said "he ran it up" and now he's regarded as extremely solid (which I have no reason to doubt). I have no point here other than that I happen to remember the guy and can see his whole evolution to high stakes mixed game monster. Catching a good run probably helped his confidence a ton which makes him less tilty as well, either that or he stopped being tilty long ago and I just didn't see him for awhile.

I would basically play this hand pat and break if I got raised somewhere.


palman 10-31-2007 01:31 AM

Re: 2-7 Hand 200-400 Bellagio Mixed Games
Jordan's not a tiltmonkey, although he may have been 2 years ago. Also, I think everyone under the age of 40 who's played the mix game has tilted at one point or another, so it mighta been a rare occurance.

But yeah, in position I'm patting this and breaking to a c/r on any street. Fairly simple hand to play, IMO, but a nervewracking one nonetheless.

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