50NL: AQs in BB
 

I've been 3betting quite a bit but overall the table has been running over me. I was running something like 26/22/3 and have 3bet 2-3 times so far. I 3ball villian with 99 in BB vs his SB once and he folded. The other time I 3balled T9hh he called and then pushed over a cbet on a 774cc board.

Not sure if I should call or fold. Villian runs at 22/18/3, hasn't gotten out of line yet that I've seen. I had a feeling he was going to try to run me over postflop so I decided to just call figuring he'd put too much $$ in the pot with a marginal hand.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($59.80)
SB ($38.50)
Hero ($51.25)
UTG ($81.95)
MP ($66)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($3.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($9.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($9.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> Button raises to $30</font>, Hero ?

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

This is tricky. I seriously have no idea. I would say his stats definitely suggest this is a fold, but you two sound like you have quite a bit of history.

But I also think this can be a bluff often enough to justify a call for 2.5:1 odds.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

seems like its either 9T, 88, or a missed heard draw. Not sure how often he bluff raises hearts tho, if ever.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I'm a little curious about your bet size on the river.

I'm not so sure that checking would be a good idea, and praying that he tries to steal the pot, but I think weak leading here may have a lot of merit (including a bluff raise that we can comfortably call). Plus, it just keeps the pot size more managable.

The more I think about it, the more I want to fold.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Why not c/r or bet out the flop? Also seems a bit passive on the turn. Maybe bet $8 on the turn to help us figure out where we are? I think I call on the river as played.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I figured he's likely checking back weak aces and air on the turn. So I was hoping he'd look me up real light with like AT or A9. Basically he'll put me on a flush draw and call. Pretty hard for him not to bet AK+ on that turn figuring he's good.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Fold. The only thing you beat here is a bluff IMO.

This guy isn't raising you with a worse Ace.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I would c/r the flop here if you are going to flat AQ pre. Fold the river without a read that villain can make big bluffs in this spot or make thin value raises with stuff like AT which would probably be pretty bad against you if you are good. You are repping an ace and generally a decent tag isn't going to try to get you to fold top pair.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

djj,

do you think he could be thinking the same thing and be bluff raising me because most tags won't call with just an ace?

Also, whats the weakest hand ur calling river with if you do fold to the raise with AQ.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
djj,

do you think he could be thinking the same thing and be bluff raising me because most tags won't call with just an
ace?

Also, whats the weakest hand ur calling river with if you do fold to the raise with AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]





link


Basically. He probably assumes you 3 bet AJ+ most of the time pre and that you are repping 77/draws/air. If he doesn't have anything he's probably not putting anymore money in anyways unless he can beat an ace after you check call but he can probably convince him self to call/bluff over a cr with a bunch of stuff.

As far as calling the river raise is concerned I would probably need two pair (AJ, A8, A7, A2) or better to call. He's basically only repping some sort of two pair with an 8 (78,J8, A8), 88, and 9T. Everything else that beats you probably bets the turn but I just don't think he tries to bluff often enough here to call given your line.

cliffs notes: Check raising reps a much wider range than check call, check/check, lead. This is good when we have a hand towards the top of that wide range.