Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Background: 30 people left, 27 get paid in the Caesar's 10k. I am chipleader, Zeejustin knows me as Psyduck from online. I think we're 8 handed or so. Effective stacks 300k (I have 370k, and am chipleader and he's in top 3). He pretty much knows how aggressive I am preflop since I've opened more than my fair share of pots since coming to the table, and I've told him that I've been 3-betting people with T2o and such, but I dunno what he thinks about how I play postflop. He and I have not tangled in a pot together since I arrived at the table. From what I can tell, he has been playing fairly tight/aggro as well, he's not opening too loose and I haven't seen him double barrel anyone yet. On to the hand:

He opens from CO to 11k (blinds 2k/4k w/ 1k ante), and I flat in SB with JcTc. BB who is fairly tight folds. Flop is T92r one club. I check. He bets out 16k. I call fairly quickly.

Turn Jh, putting out two hearts. I check. He fires out 35k fairly fast (note that timing tells are useless against someone like him for the most part, although maybe he has to think a little bit more with a hand like KK, deciding whether he is playing for pot control or for stacks).

How do you play on from here? If you guys know results, please do not post them.

If you c/r and he calls, what is your plan on specific rivers (4 to a straight / heart hits / board pairs), since I am assuming people are calling his push if you c/r big enough. If you c/c, what is your plan on specific rivers again?

I think this is a fairly interesting hand.


edit: thoughts on preflop and flop play are welcome too! I actually think preflop is a call vs most people on earth but a fold vs the top 0.05% MTTers

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I fold pre vs ZJ but yea vs most it's a call.

Turn i likely CR to 120k and if he calls jam safe rivers. I think check calling also doesn't suck followed by a lead on safe rivers and prolly chk/calling the scare ones.

Edit: And if i CR turn i don't think i'm not folding to shove. But i mean idk, live poker is hard and so much comes down to flow at the table as far as what the right move is.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Definately don't like the call preflop, a reraise would be better but its still a fold imo. you've got position on him all day why play small pots OOP vs. probably the best player at the table?

also, i think it would be pretty tough to get all in with the best hand on the turn. i probably calldown to avoid compounding the mistake you've made by calling pre

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

PF: as they said, I dont see why I would get involved with ZJ where there have to easier targets especially OOP
Turn play: Has ZJ seen you been aggressive after pf? Against most opponents live I would be c/c since I tend to play more passive live.
Pot size seems to be ~100k when its your decision to call. Making the pot 130k. Now I think I am c/c most rivers. If the river comes a J or a T I think I will be firing like 70-80k. I think that c/c is the same as the c/r value and I think that you will get him to fire away with worse hands. Now if the river comes a AKQ9 I think its really on how you feel the hand is going (one of those reads things)

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I think I b/3b the turn. It doesn't seem great, but neither does cr or c/c
I might c/c donk river as well
Edit: To expand more I don't think your hand fairs that well vs. his range which calls or shoves after you c/r the turn.
By checking the turn he can peel with a lot of medium strength pairs/draws that still have good equity. If he raises the turn I'm not crazy about getting it in, but I figure he can have OPs/ combo draws enough of the time.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

no way do I fold pre.
I definitely advocate c/c turn.

I really want to be able to bet/fold total blank rivers. If we lead 75k on the river and he shoves, it'd be a pretty awesome bluff, but the stronger fact is that he can't really shove worse for value, so we're not accidentally getting pushed off the best hand. I'm also fine with c/c river blanks.

c/f 9 c/c blank heart c/f 2 c/c???? A (really unsure my plan on random ace, we probably only beat a 3 barrell bluff if he bets on the ace, and actually maybe we should be folding on it)

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I don't think you can fold pre-flop. If he'd been opening more from LP, I'd like 3-betting, but as described call seems good. Flop is good, but against a smart deep stack player like ZJ I'd rather lead turn, since he'll check behind a lot of stuff you don't want him to check.

As played, I'm kind of inclined to call and check-call anything but a Q river. I've never played with ZJ, so I don't know how aggressively he would play one pair with a draw versus without on this turn, but I don't see him making many mistakes against a c/r. He'll fold his bluffs, he'll fold worse hands without redraws, he'll shove hands that beat you and maybe the occasional worse two pair, and he'll call and be tricky on the river if he has a big draw or pair + draw.

Check-calling such a drawy turn is repping something like Q9 on your part, and since a substantial part of his range against you on this turn ought to be bluffs/semi-bluffs, underrepping your hand should encourage him to fire again on the river. And I would call an A river, because I'd imagine he's capable of betting AK for value even on this board given your passive line.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I don't think you ever get his stack in on the turn with you being ahead since I think his minimum stackoff range is a set, and when I read the hand I immediately thought to myself 'wow, have to check/call that turn.'

So I would check/call turn and lead the river and dump it to a raise.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I like the flat call preflop with this hand. You could also reraise, but I wouldn't fold. This is live with a big ante and you have an aggressive big stack raising pretty much any two on the bubble. Saying don't get involved with a strong player OOP makes no sense when you look at the situation. Also, I would not assume Justin is the strongest player at the table on the bubble of a major tournament.

On the turn, I would check/call. Reevaluate on the river, with various possible approaches.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Pf w/e call 3bet jsut dont fold plz. Even though ZJ is very good and your oop your hand is just way too strong to fold here.
My first instinct on the turn is to bet. If he raises I'm not sure exactly what I do depends on raise size, timing, live reads etc.. even though I'm sure ZJ won't give much away.