Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

Week 4 NFL Lines.

Here are the lines I would set, and then I make all my early week picks based on this if there are any large discrepancies. Late week picks I make on Friday night. And then bet teasers on Sunday morning for the most cash. All the games look really tough so I might look like a fool. Lines refer to home team:

Hou @ Atl +3
GB @ Minn +2.5
Oak @ Mia -3
Chi @ Det +2
St. L @ Dall -7
Balt @ Cle +3.5
Jets @ Buff +3.5
Sea @ SF +3
TB @ Car -2
KC @ SD -5
Den @ Indy -8
Pitt @ Ari +5
Phila @ NY -3
NE @ Cincy +4.5

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

Are these serious?

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

NE @ Cincy will be probably around +7 or +8 for Cincy I would think. And if it is, I'm all over the Pats on that one. How is NE not going to dismantle that pathetic Cincy D?

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

that San Fran line has to be mixed up, you meant -3 right?

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

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NE @ Cincy will be probably around +7 or +8 for Cincy I would think. And if it is, I'm all over the Pats on that one. How is NE not going to dismantle that pathetic Cincy D?

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] No way they're -7-8 on the road on MNF.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I'm just getting into this but here are my predicted lines.

Hou -3.5 @ Atl
GB -3.5 @ Minnesota
Oakland +3 @ Miami
Chicago E @ Detroit
St. Louis +5.5 @ Dallas
Baltimore -3.5 @ Cleveland
Jets -4.5 @ Buffalo
Tampa Bay +3 @ Carolina
KC +8 @ San Diego
Denver +12 @ Indy
Pittsburg -6 @ Arizona
Philadelphia +3 @ NYG
New England -5 @ Cincy

Not very dissimilar to yours, except for my bloated Indy, SD lines. If those games open closer to your lines I'd like both favorites heavily. Also like Arizona if KW is starting all the way down to +3.5. Jets @ Buffalo look good for NY up to -5 as well as Dallas over St. Louis giving as much as 7. Fun Stuff

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

thats what i thought but maybe the oddsmakers will set it high based on their last two blowouts

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

Here are my guesses:

Hou @ Atl +3
GB @ Minn +2.5
Oak @ Mia -5
Chi @ Det +3.5
St. L @ Dall -10
Balt @ Cle +5
Jets @ Buff +3.5
Sea @ SF +2
TB @ Car -3
KC @ SD -11.5
Den @ Indy -9
Pitt @ Ari +5
Phila @ NY +2.5
NE @ Cincy +5.5

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

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Are these serious?

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why the hate?

I think the SD line wont go to far over a touchdown, and I think my lines will need to be adjusted if the bears or 'boys get a blowout.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

The Bears-Lions game is dependant on tonight's outcome obv.

Miami I think is better than Oakland on a neutral, so I have that a little higher.

Rams suck & everyone loves Dallas so that'll be high.

Chargers coming home after 2 tough roadies...that'll be high. KC was probably less impressive today than they were @Chicago last week.

Maybe I'm underestimating homefield in the Gints-Eagles game...historically I feel like it's not that important in that series (not just last yr)....Giants-Skins line was lower than expected for the same reason I think.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I can predict half time bets really good but some of the week's odds are always surprising to me. I made it a point not to look at what you 2 posted and came up with this:

Houston -3.5
Green Bay -1
Miami -3.5
Chicago -6
Dallas -5.5
Ravens -3.5
Jets -2.5
49ers -1
Colts -7.5
Steelers -3
Eagles -3.5
Pats -4.5

Dallas and Chicago subject to a lot of change after this game.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

san diego is definitely a double digit favorite

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Yes.....Bears didnt get 6

SD will open at 9.5 max
SF will not be favored
Eagles will not be favored

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I messed up my formatting here and thought the Eagles were at home, as well as missed a couple games.. point being my post sucked.

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Some of them are up on Pinny...nothing really surprises me.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

JESUS EFFING CHRIST

CRAYTON [censored] ME SO BADD

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

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[ QUOTE ]
NE @ Cincy will be probably around +7 or +8 for Cincy I would think. And if it is, I'm all over the Pats on that one. How is NE not going to dismantle that pathetic Cincy D?

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] No way they're -7-8 on the road on MNF.

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Hate to say I told you so, but...

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

Besides the SD game all the lines were accurate to 1 - 2 points. Some are still OTB. I'm gonna go ahead and put 1u on KC @ +14

PS. There seem to be alot of wong teasers available at first glance as well.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

It opened @6, went up already?

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Unless Dallas really stinks it up tonight or has major injuries, I think the line for Dallas against the Rams will be a lot higher. St. Louis now has only 3 of it's original 6 O line left and Linehan refuses to throw the ball more than 3 yards at a pop.

Peraonally I might even take Dallas -10.5

Doc

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I like the Chargers -12 & the Browns +4.5 at first glance.

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Pitt @ Ari +5


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Firstly, this was right on the money. However, I have to ask for some reasoning on this line.

I expect Pittsburgh may be the BSP pick of the week.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

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Pitt @ Ari +5


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Firstly, this was right on the money. However, I have to ask for some reasoning on this line.

I expect Pittsburgh may be the BSP pick of the week.

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Pittsburgh was -9 vs. SF at home; so it would've been ~3.5-4 @SF? Frankly Arizona has looked like a better team after 3 weeks than SF did after 2.
Can't see how anyone would think it would be much more than 5pts on the road.

Oh, my early BSP prediction is GB -1.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I'm still on the Pitt side hoping to open up a really nice middle (similar to Indi @ Hou).

Agree on GB -1. Thought about taking this too for a nice middle but GB (read: Favre) is really bad @ Minny so I'll probably just wait for Minny to get more points before taking them.

- C -

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

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Pitt @ Ari +5


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Firstly, this was right on the money. However, I have to ask for some reasoning on this line.

I expect Pittsburgh may be the BSP pick of the week.

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Thanks. I chose the line for several reasons. The major reason I thought the line would be under a touch is because Pitt is away and Warner seemed to inject new life into the cardinals. I mean if you take away the 15 yard personal foul, Arizona wins the game when Warner gets the ball back. Arizona was anemic on O with Matt, but the game was broken open early not by a defense lapse, but a Baltimore special team touchdown.

I predict that Pitt will be hit hard and will move to around -6 to -6.5 by Sunday. Unfortunately, I think this line does nothing for the sharp bettor. The only tease may be towards Arizona, but even then I would be wary. If you want to bet Pitt, I think you should bet them now and I you like Zona with the points wait till Gametime.

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Warner isn't getting the start. I think the public moves this line a lot and opens a great middle.

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I mean if you take away the 15 yard personal foul, Arizona wins the game when Warner gets the ball back.

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FWIW, I hear this a lot and totally disagree. It's not like the Ravens started at the 50 and only moved into FG range cause of the penalty. It started at the 20 and they moved the other 37 yards to get into FG range, including two runs grinding 34 seconds off the clock. With two time outs left, there's a very good chance they'd have moved into FG range anyway.

- C -

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Eagles are -2.5

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First, I am very surprised the Eagles are -3. Also, I am hoping the SD and Dallas come down as I would really love to bet them, but its unheard of for a line to drop by three points so I am confused as to how to bet Dallas and SD. Maybe a two team 9pt teaser with bad odds?

Here are the games I will be looking to tease. I am having trouble finding solid ML bets, whereas last week Tenn and Dallas were perfect.

Minn +2 to +8
Indy -9 to -3
Buff +3 to +9 ????
NYG +3 to +9
SF +1.5 to +7.5
Ari +5.5 to +11.5

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I'm probably going to bet the Detroit ML. I'm not sure what Chicago has shown so far other than an all-around shaky team. The defense doesn't look like what it was last year and the offense looks equally inept. I expect public money to widen the spread a little though, so I think I'll wait until the end of the week.

Also, what is with you people and your obsession with teases?