Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I like the Chargers -12 & the Browns +4.5 at first glance.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

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Pitt @ Ari +5


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Firstly, this was right on the money. However, I have to ask for some reasoning on this line.

I expect Pittsburgh may be the BSP pick of the week.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pitt @ Ari +5


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Firstly, this was right on the money. However, I have to ask for some reasoning on this line.

I expect Pittsburgh may be the BSP pick of the week.

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Pittsburgh was -9 vs. SF at home; so it would've been ~3.5-4 @SF? Frankly Arizona has looked like a better team after 3 weeks than SF did after 2.
Can't see how anyone would think it would be much more than 5pts on the road.

Oh, my early BSP prediction is GB -1.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I'm still on the Pitt side hoping to open up a really nice middle (similar to Indi @ Hou).

Agree on GB -1. Thought about taking this too for a nice middle but GB (read: Favre) is really bad @ Minny so I'll probably just wait for Minny to get more points before taking them.

- C -

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pitt @ Ari +5


[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, this was right on the money. However, I have to ask for some reasoning on this line.

I expect Pittsburgh may be the BSP pick of the week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I chose the line for several reasons. The major reason I thought the line would be under a touch is because Pitt is away and Warner seemed to inject new life into the cardinals. I mean if you take away the 15 yard personal foul, Arizona wins the game when Warner gets the ball back. Arizona was anemic on O with Matt, but the game was broken open early not by a defense lapse, but a Baltimore special team touchdown.

I predict that Pitt will be hit hard and will move to around -6 to -6.5 by Sunday. Unfortunately, I think this line does nothing for the sharp bettor. The only tease may be towards Arizona, but even then I would be wary. If you want to bet Pitt, I think you should bet them now and I you like Zona with the points wait till Gametime.

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

Warner isn't getting the start. I think the public moves this line a lot and opens a great middle.

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I mean if you take away the 15 yard personal foul, Arizona wins the game when Warner gets the ball back.

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FWIW, I hear this a lot and totally disagree. It's not like the Ravens started at the 50 and only moved into FG range cause of the penalty. It started at the 20 and they moved the other 37 yards to get into FG range, including two runs grinding 34 seconds off the clock. With two time outs left, there's a very good chance they'd have moved into FG range anyway.

- C -

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

Eagles are -2.5

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

First, I am very surprised the Eagles are -3. Also, I am hoping the SD and Dallas come down as I would really love to bet them, but its unheard of for a line to drop by three points so I am confused as to how to bet Dallas and SD. Maybe a two team 9pt teaser with bad odds?

Here are the games I will be looking to tease. I am having trouble finding solid ML bets, whereas last week Tenn and Dallas were perfect.

Minn +2 to +8
Indy -9 to -3
Buff +3 to +9 ????
NYG +3 to +9
SF +1.5 to +7.5
Ari +5.5 to +11.5

Re: Guessing Week 4 Lines
 

I'm probably going to bet the Detroit ML. I'm not sure what Chicago has shown so far other than an all-around shaky team. The defense doesn't look like what it was last year and the offense looks equally inept. I expect public money to widen the spread a little though, so I think I'll wait until the end of the week.

Also, what is with you people and your obsession with teases?