Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

According to FO:
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The Steelers ranked second in the league in rushing yards, but the total is largely inflated by the sheer number of attempts. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, which measure stats on a per-play basis, the Steelers feature a league-average rushing attack.

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This is great because it should run the clock down while keeping the score low
I'm thinking this is a great spot for a correlated parlay Miami +16 Under 38.5

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

My biggest position yesterday went down in flames with the Texans. Yeah, that kinda sucked. Especially since I'm a big Texans fan too.

But overall for the week, I was able to come out ahead, so yay?

One play for the Monday Night Football game. I'm definitely backing the Steelers here and I think that they'll be able to just jump down the throat of the Dolphins. Am I right? Well, I guess we'll see. hah. But at the odds that I'm getting I think it's a good bet.

Parlay: Pittsburgh -9.5 / OVER 20 1st Half (+291)
2 units at BetTrojan

As for why it's a parlay, same reasoning as the earlier Indy parlay. I think that both bets are +EV in their own right, and since the occurence of the first is slightly correlated with the occurence of the second, I hit it as a parlay. Honestly, I think that Pittsburgh could be up 21-0 or 24-0 at half. We'll see what happens.

http://www.sagestats.com/img/data/en...l_75c453aa.pngSageStats ensign_lee

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

i didn't plan on betting this game, but after hearing about the weather forecast last night i played a good amount of under 40.5 and dolphins +16.5; then some dolphins +10 1h today

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

Damn...now that I think about it, this was a very stupid bet. D'oh to me.

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Damn...now that I think about it, this was a very stupid bet. D'oh to me.

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, especially with the weather conditions now it looks realllly bad imo.

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

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Ok. I still like my bet.

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Do you like it as much as you liked NE last night?

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

on dolphins +16 -105
o37 +125

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

Man, really should have loaded up more than 1u on the under.

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
While watching the game last week, I am not convinced Parker is 100%. He went down very easy the entire game. Davenport got more carries than normal in a close game. He usually only gets 3rd downs and mop up duties. I think the knee is bothering Parker. He had problems with it all pre-season. Anyway, this caused Pittsburgh to be in 3rd and long all last week and the Jets took advantage and brought pressure.

If I am indeed right, I really wish they would sit Parker and let Davenport play.

That said, the line points to a 27-10 Pitt victory tonight. I see that as being pretty close.

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Way to go out on a limb and say the line is pretty close.

Re: ***OFFICIAL MNF FOOTBALL 11/26/07 (Miami at Pittsburgh)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
While watching the game last week, I am not convinced Parker is 100%. He went down very easy the entire game. Davenport got more carries than normal in a close game. He usually only gets 3rd downs and mop up duties. I think the knee is bothering Parker. He had problems with it all pre-season. Anyway, this caused Pittsburgh to be in 3rd and long all last week and the Jets took advantage and brought pressure.

If I am indeed right, I really wish they would sit Parker and let Davenport play.

That said, the line points to a 27-10 Pitt victory tonight. I see that as being pretty close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way to go out on a limb and say the line is pretty close.

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Sorry for letting you know that I didn't see value in either side and thought the line looked pretty accurate. My bad.