Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

Villain is 27/2.3/2 over 40 hands or so and more or less unknown.

Ongame Poker No Limit Hold'Em, $1/$2 (10 handed).

SB ($120)
BB ($564)
UTG ($284)
Hero/UTG+1 ($225)
UTG+2 ($206)
MP1 ($143)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 (286)
Villain/CO ($178)
Button ($40)


Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG folds, Hero calls, 4 folds, Villain calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: ($8) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5, Villain calls, 2 folds.

Turn: ($18) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15. Villain calls.

River: ($48) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets $35. Villain raises to $100. Hero?

Is this a good value bet on the river and, when Villain surprised me and raised, what’s the right move?

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

Should have raised or folded pre-flop, I usually fold it but you gotta get it all in somewhere as played

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

The only hand I'd be afraid of is 66, can't see how he can have a 9 here after you bet the flop. Why are you not raising PF here BTW? He could have a lower A and think that the 2nd 9 solved his kicker problem or missed his FD and tries to bluff you now...
I'd bet a little more on the flop BTW.
Question is, how likely is villain to just flatcall twice with a set on a drawy board on the flop and an even more drawy board on the turn? His AF is at 2 so he is not one of those hyper - passive guys...
Value bet is good IMO, maybe a little bit on the high side but that depends on what you think villain will call here (I guess you think you're in front here, right?).
Your odds on the river are quite good, getting 2.4 - 1, so I think I call here, not liking it too much though.

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

Good analysis Alex but I think you are missing 109d and 98d and actually given he is 27 preflop possibly K9, and J9 too.

Before I know a vilain I am inclined to respect river raises more than those on other streets. Personally I think I fold this.

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

Just to avoid too much focus on if/how to play AQ in EP (suited or not) utg, I'll say now that I would usually ditch it in the first three spots. I played it here purely for a bit of variety/balance.

It's really the river I'm interested in and thanks for the thoughts so far...

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

IMO, depending on table, AQs in UTG+1 raise>limp with heavy emphasis on raising. I'd bet 6-7 on this flop as it's really drawy. Turn bet is very good. The river's really weird here and I can't see him doing this without a 9. It's possible that villain called flop with 8d9d or Td9d..or even A9. I think I check river here and call a bet. I doubt that worse A's pay us off if we bet out.

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are missing 109d and 98d and actually given he is 27 preflop possibly K9, and J9 too.



[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, especially on T9d and 98d. Thanks for adding this no clue why I left these out.

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

I think you have to value bet this river in the long run, and I think checking is bad. The raise could for sure be some sort of flush draw turned into trips but I pay this off as I think you will also see air here too.

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

I think you need to bet the river for value and call the river raise. I dont see a set playing like this, you might see a 9, but you might see AK, AJ or Ax too.

Re: Top two pair (AQ) in early position gets raised on the river
 

Villain showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], fwiw.

I agree that the bet on the flop should have been $1 or $2 more, but I think this hand was just one of those. I think missing a value bet on the end, fearing a X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], is too nitty and I agree that there are definitely some hands that might raise here I can beat.

Thanks for the words of wisdom, lads.