Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

bet fold turn

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

In question #1, do you mean does he have a spade? I'm not understanding what a club would have to do with this hand.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
In question #1, do you mean does he have a spade? I'm not understanding what a club would have to do with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. Ozi is tired and needs to sleep. fixed via edit of OP.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a club?

[/ QUOTE ]
All-Blacks: Not just New Zealand's Rugby Team — it beats an overpair now, too! <font color="white">Countdown to Ozi [censored] up my layout again in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .</font>

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a club ?


[/ QUOTE ]

You do mean a spade, right?

Doc

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

Damn, late.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

I’ll let someone else do the math. I’m actually quite interested in the result, but since I’m at work I’ve no access to Stove and can’t be arsed to calculate something myself… But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
I’ll let someone else do the math. I’m actually quite interested in the result, but since I’m at work I’ve no access to Stove and can’t be arsed to calculate something myself… But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, really brilliant. Because since we know that villain - if he has a spade at all - will have Q+, that Clarkmeister is clearly a genious plan. He'll fold his Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and v-bet our ass off with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming he realizes that you don't have a spade and figures you'll give up some time if he barrels twice - yes.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they both suck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] But given that even a bad tag will find a good fold every now and then, I'd c/call and hope he's in a bluffing mood.

[ QUOTE ]
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Levelling again? Obv. that changes nothing. % of him holding a single spade is still ~50%. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

If you bet I don't think he can raise without the A or K of spades, so you can safely fold. He has to be worried about you having A or K of spades since you 3 bet PF and donked into his PF cap on a 3 spade board.

PF isn't AQs in his range also? Seems as or more likely to cap with that 5 way than with JJ.

edit: sorry, missed point 4 adding AQs to his range, still seems as or more likely than JJ to me.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]



[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the fact that his AA hand has to include a spade change that? Supposes it also affects his AK range too.

I dunno maffs tho. Will hav to show workings.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

If we check, and he bets, is he bluffing or is he value betting? We don’t know, so we must call down. –EV
If we check, and he checks behind, is he slowplaying, or does he not have a spade? Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.
If we bet, and he raises, we can clearly fold our hands. What’s he gonna raise on this board? Only the A. We can fold. -1 BB (if he musters up the nerve to bluff-raise us, kudos to him)
If we bet and he calls, does he have a spade that’s not the nuts, or is he unsure about us having a spade? Again we don’t know. Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.

Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

Hence the requested math, obviously. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

Question 1
Total hands he can hold:
AA
1 possible hand
1 spades hand

KK
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

QQ
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

JJ
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

Therefore odds is (1+3+3+3+4)/(1+6+6+6+8)
= 51.8% he has a spade.
I will round up to 52%

Question 2
Let's assume villian bets out on turn and river, and HERO calls.

Total EV of calling down = ((0.48*15)+(0.52*-2))
= 6.16BB

EV of turn and river call down bets = ((0.48*2)+(0.52*-2))
= -0.08BB

Pot's too big to ignore. Calling is still +EV, so reasonable to call down.

Question 3

Assuming villian will call when he holds no flush, and he will raise if he has a flush.
EV of HERO's turn bet/fold = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1))
= -0.04BB

EV of HERO's turn check/call = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1))
= -0.04BB

Same EV for both decision. I'd go for check/call, you get to see the river, and you don't forfeit the huge pot.

Question 4

So that adds hands like:
TT
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

AQs
2 possible hands
1 spades hands

The odds he's holding onto spades becomes = (1+3+3+3+4+3+1)/(1+6+6+6+8+6+2)
= 51.4%

Well... not much difference if he's range is widened.

So teacher, is my math correct??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. But that doesn't make it right to choose the one line that gives us clearly the worst of all worlds for the price of 1BB and the relieve that we avoided a sticky situation. This hand is so insanely read-dependend that it's almose completely useless to post it without ~50 hands to go before so we can establish some sort of feel. In a vacuum (and stats/some remarks about hand ranges is a vacuum), you can simply choose between making a clearly -ev play or a probably -ev play. Clarkmeistering is clearly -ev because there's simply no chance in the world that a thinking player isn't playing correctly against us on this board.

Checking and seeing what he does at least gives us hopes for doing something +ev.

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. But why should we make it worse?

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade.

Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]



[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the fact that his AA hand has to include a spade change that? Supposes it also affects his AK range too.

I dunno maffs tho. Will hav to show workings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, a bit too rash there. Point is that for every hand that's unaffected by the board or our hand, the % is 50% (TT-KK/KQ etc.). For the other AA and AK/AQ, things change a bit to the worse: 5 of the remaining 8 AK combos have a spade (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K:any:, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), same for AQ. However, that only changes 50% to 62%. So if you include QQ etc. where it's exactly 50%, for all practical purposes of "live decision making" 50% is still good enough.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

*grunch*

There are 14 cards, 5 of which are spades, in the range you put him on. He holds 2 of those cards. So it appears to me he has a spade about 70% of the time. There is no other hand in his range that beats us so we win 3 of 10 times.

If we assume villain will bet when we check and we check/call down we are putting up 2 to win 15. So in ten trials we win 45 and lose 14 bets. Nice work when we can get it. Call down looks good. If we are wrong and he checks it through. I don't hate that either.

Bet/fold would only be better if we think villain will fold WHEN HOLDING A SPADE more often than he would bet into our check without a spade. I can't calculate that but I somehow I doubt it is the best play. Maybe when I read the other responses I will find out I am wrong about that. Anyway it is read dependent and reads are only so accurate at best.

Adding cards to his range does change the odds incrementally but I don't think it reaches the level of changing our play. The pot is too large for that.

The river card can change the outcome of this hand and never to our benefit. On the other hand there are several cards that can beat us. Even though that is an argument for betting, I make this, overall, a must call, can't bet situation. Not real close IMO.

Now I will read the responses of the real poker players and learn something [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

EDITED TO ADD: Looks like I miscounted. There are 4 spades in his range not 5 so odds are about 55% not 70%. Improves our call down odds. In ten trials we win ~67.5 BB and lose ~11 BB. Even better.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...


[/ QUOTE ]

You are right I missed this in my calcs too. Wont change EV much...too lazy to recalc.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

Just to add a comment, and try to put a point on this hand. It sure looks to me like we have the best of this and villain also has the best of it. Both players will win big if this situation is played out a thousand times. Therefore the key to it is the dead money in the pot that CO, SB, and BB contributed. My lesson from this hand is not to undervalue the dead money in a pot.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

just to add a point - no one in 1/2 prima is folding a big overpair here whether they have a spade or not, in my experience. the grinders will put you on a move and call you down.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

I'd c/c in this spot.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

this isn't a math question its a table metagame question.

He is folding or raising 90% of the time. A call is clearly a mistake unless he was bluffing preflop with middle pockets and has a spade or a straight draw card.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

smurph, you might want to re-examine that

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
this isn't a math question its a table metagame question.

He is folding or raising 90% of the time. A call is clearly a mistake unless he was bluffing preflop with middle pockets and has a spade or a straight draw card.

[/ QUOTE ]

smurf, youve confused me (again)...are you saying he is either raising or folding or that a call by hero is clearly incorrect?

for you and anyone to convince me that b/f is better than c/c you need at least argue that he calls down with worse Pocket pairs than arent spades and/or folds the worst of his spade hands (JJ)

BTW the reads i gave in OP can be assumed to be accurate...this guy plays alot and ive datamined. In short he rarely gets out of line and IMHO he can make laydowns. Do i know if he is capable of foldinfg KK/QQ no spade...of course I dont know for sure but if anyone is capable of it..he fits the profile. Im pretty confident that he is more capable of folding KK/QQ than he is of incorrectly folding JJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

so Im contending that c/c &gt; b/f since b/f allows our opponent to play more correctly. what is teh point of betting if he only folds with hands we beat? btw as per BBBs comment...yes, maybe he calls w KK

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

I have'nt got the book with me, but 'Holdem on the Come' by Rolf Slotbottom (or whatever his name is) has a good section on the odds of a made flush, depending on the number of players in the hand etc. Naturally, i can't remember the odds/percentages.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

What I don't understand about c/c is what card comes on the river that helps you?

If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards.

Are you saying you have the odds to call two on the chance he bluffs with no spade?

He needs 22 to 1 to draw to a set, which is a bad call. But its a bad call for me too and since my set is probably discounted the choice is check/fold or bet/fold.

I would rather bet/fold.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't about you. This is about determining the best line against a villain who plays ABC poker as described in the original post.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

In this spot, I would toy around with the idea of check-calling the turn and donking the river. This allows ABC player to value bet his pairs and his flushes, but might entice him to call the river donk with his pairs because it seems so out of place.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
What I don't understand about c/c is what card comes on the river that helps you?


[/ QUOTE ]

None. We are Way Ahead/Drawing Dead. I dont mind about giving a free card here to KKnospade.

[ QUOTE ]

If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards.


[/ QUOTE ]

Admittedly, this guy doesnt play like you but this comment only strengthens the c/c argument so Ill win at least one more BB when ahead whereas Ill not win anymore when you/he fold to my bet.
[ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you have the odds to call two on the chance he bluffs with no spade?


[/ QUOTE ]
yes. I gave a read that I think this guy can value bet (at least on the turn) with KK, QQ. Im very confident c/c is +EV....se grunch by 36.

[ QUOTE ]

He needs 22 to 1 to draw to a set, which is a bad call. But its a bad call for me too and since my set is probably discounted the choice is check/fold or bet/fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Smurf, IMHO you havent really created any solid argument for bet/fold given the info youve been given.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I havent checked the numbers in detail (14/27 and the extra range not changing much is right though) but in general this looks good and I agree with the sentiment so obviously Ill say Well done. nice grunch.

kudos to Mav too

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

I am curious what is your record versus this guy, since this a read dependant move based on the post?

Let me see some other hands with this guy to see his betting line here, ie 4 flush boards and/or overpairs.

It seems to me something is fishy in Denmark.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

well even though Ive got lots of hands against this guy it doesnt mean I have any that relate to this spot (im not at home so cant check PT). I would have to go and dig through hands where he has been to SD and look at them....BUT I can tell from this guys stats and betting standards (he doesnt get out of line) that his range is what i told you it is. furthermore, if it is wide than what I suggest it doesnt really matter because even if we add hands to his range it doesnt change the spade percentage.

What Im getting at, and if anyone else wants to agree/disagree with me then Im all ears, is that given his range I think his play can be predicted to the degree which ive eluded to in previous posts on this and I dont think I need a specific example to do it. Remember, he isnt lag he isnt tricky tag he is a tag who doesnt get out of line...if he did I would have a note on him to that effect but I dont (if I did I would have said so in OP).

Maybe Im just being pig headed but Ive done my best to put myself in this villians shoes and Im more convinced than ever that c/c &gt; b/f &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; c/f.

oh and to be clear, its not the 'bet' part of the bet/fold that troubles me...folding if raised is easy peasy.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade.

Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, ok. thanks for informing. But too lazy to recalculate. Wont' change much anyway.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

Grunch.

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....

[/ QUOTE ]

1. If I'm counting the combinations correctly, there are 30 possible live combos of AA-JJ and AK (including A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but we may be able to discount this somewhat since villain didn't cap the flop). All four of the A,K,Q, and J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are out, so there are 10 ways he can have those pairs with a spade. Add the possible AK combos (A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kx), and that's five more. So there's a 50 percent chance he has a spade. That's not good for us.

2. I don't think so. I think, given the action, he has a very good idea of what we have, and if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he probably knows exactly what we have.

3. If we check, you say he can bet a worse hand like KK or QQ with no spades. I'm leaning toward bet/fold only because if he doesn't have a spade, we'll probably win the pot with a bet here. I'm really not sure, though. (Given your description of him as "not very imaginative" and "ABC postflop", I'm not afraid of a bluff-raise. If I do bet, it's the last bet I'm putting into this pot.)

4. Adding TT, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] brings the chances under 50%, but not by much, and certainly not by enough to do anything differently.

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 

reading almost all the way down ... til Smurph posted an hurt my head [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm only going to put one more BB in the pot (most of the time) ... my plan would be a c.c on the turn (which looks like a showdown play), most villains will not be the river without a spade (it will take a real champ to bet the river with crap) ... OZI's thoughts are sound - IMO

of course against an 'aggressive thinking player' that you play regularly you need to call the river bet (maybe even check raise the turn, just for fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])